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Post by walnut on Jan 28, 2016 13:32:26 GMT
I'm still convinced that China's economic problems do not spread over here. The Chinese economy does not lead the US economy. Their problems are their own, and they made them on their own. A stock market crash in China may trigger a big correction over here if our market is already very high and due for a correction, but economically their troubles do not become our troubles. I hope you are right! Because I am convinced Chinese problems will and have spread over here. Now more than any other time in our history we truly are a global economy. More often than not an Asian stock market decline is continued in Europe a few hours later and then continues to the US markets. China is now the worlds second largest economy. The rest of the world will be pulled into the mess when the Chinese economy finally tanks. We will fare better than the rest but should the Chinese market collapse to the degree our's did in 1929 look out. The Chinese people fully expect their government to "guarantee" investments. Entire vacant cities fueled the mother of all real estate bubbles and the leverage to which many of the Chinese have extended themselves borders on fiscal insanity. Name one economic bubble in the Earths history that did not pop. I don't see the avenue from which their recession becomes our recession. We don't depend on them, other than we have gotten very used to only paying $30 for a nice Chinese drill at Harbor Freight that would have cost $100 at Sears 5 years ago. Most of their imports are scraps of cloth and plastic odds and ends at walmart. A whole shopping cart of that flotsam jetsom only costs $40. The worst effect so far has been a scary deflation of most all commodities. But, I see that oil this morning was almost $35, so maybe the worst is past?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 28, 2016 13:50:46 GMT
the leverage to which many of the Chinese have extended themselves borders on fiscal insanity. Bank lending in China is generally speaking much more conservative than it is in the West. This is true of many places in the world. Access to 'money' (credit) in most of Latin America for example will cost the 'Peon' 15-25%. At those rates the wealthy merely recycle their liquid wealth at 10-12%. If the lower classes are ever able to tap the collateral of their properties at a reasonable price, their productivity will truely explode.
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 28, 2016 14:57:27 GMT
Your article is from may 2014 and the glory days of shadow banks. Andrew, I don't think the Chinese government has reigned in the shadow banking industry. It's a few months old but more current than the previous article. www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/8-trillion-black-swan-chinas-shadow-banking-system-about-collapseIn addition the government just started to allow them to use the equity in their homes to invest in the market. That would be the same homes built in "empty" cities that do not generate any income other than whats strictly speculative. So to sum it up the Chinese people have invested trillions in the worlds biggest real estate bubble and now are tapping into that "equity" to invest in the Chinese stock market? Some are even leveraging that? It's the very definition of "lunacy" and it's no wonder the Chinese government will stop at nothing to prop their market up. But once again name one economic bubble that did not pop? Start with the tulip mania in 1637. Because I think this may end worse. More than one in five Chinese "homes" are vacant www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-in-5-homes-in-chinese-cities-are-empty-survey-says-1402484499
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 28, 2016 15:20:30 GMT
I hope you are right! Because I am convinced Chinese problems will and have spread over here. Now more than any other time in our history we truly are a global economy. More often than not an Asian stock market decline is continued in Europe a few hours later and then continues to the US markets. China is now the worlds second largest economy. The rest of the world will be pulled into the mess when the Chinese economy finally tanks. We will fare better than the rest but should the Chinese market collapse to the degree our's did in 1929 look out. The Chinese people fully expect their government to "guarantee" investments. Entire vacant cities fueled the mother of all real estate bubbles and the leverage to which many of the Chinese have extended themselves borders on fiscal insanity. Name one economic bubble in the Earths history that did not pop. I don't see the avenue from which their recession becomes our recession. We don't depend on them, other than we have gotten very used to only paying $30 for a nice Chinese drill at Harbor Freight that would have cost $100 at Sears 5 years ago. Most of their imports are scraps of cloth and plastic odds and ends at walmart. A whole shopping cart of that flotsam jetsom only costs $40. The worst effect so far has been a scary deflation of most all commodities. But, I see that oil this morning was almost $35, so maybe the worst is past? The Chinese thirst for commodities help pull the world out (or at least kept if from collapsing further) in 2008-2009. The world geared up to meet this new demand. We drilled more oil, grew more crops, mined more ore. Now we have a glut on the market. Too much oil, record harvest and a lack of demand for copper and steel. This will surly cause our economy to lose jobs in these sectors. The oil industry down here in Texas has been decimated. Farmers are feeling the pinch of low prices as are steel mills that were experiencing a semi-renaissance providing tubulars for the oil industry. So it's all related and we don't live on an economically isolated island.
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Post by walnut on Jan 28, 2016 15:20:50 GMT
If we don't trust their judgement, we'd better make sure that we don't in any way depend on them.
If the world economically is highly productive, in a way that has not happened in history, what will be the side effects? Lower commodity prices? Cheap stuff to buy but no jobs? A big adjustment.
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Post by walnut on Jan 29, 2016 15:00:40 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 29, 2016 15:22:14 GMT
I used to do Facebook, gave up on it. My wife has it, so when pics of the kids/grandkids show up, she shows me.
One can waste a lot of time on Facebook and you don't learn a thing.
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Post by nonentropic on Jan 29, 2016 18:04:07 GMT
I want to set up a competitor to face book but call it "Bum Book" I thing blokes would go for it much more.
People take their narcissistic existences to far and are reinforced by these types of outlets.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 30, 2016 5:21:30 GMT
New reality tv ... the Hardassians???
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Post by flearider on Jan 30, 2016 9:53:10 GMT
hmm i don't use any multi media crap .. twit farcebook ..there collection of data and the fact any pic you put on them they can claim .. also the fact that what ever item there on they can look thru ... strange world really
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Post by Andrew on Jan 30, 2016 10:02:29 GMT
Unfortunately my wife and her family use Facebook so it is difficult for me to say too much about the topic.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 31, 2016 4:02:21 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 31, 2016 16:53:42 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 31, 2016 18:12:24 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 3, 2016 18:19:30 GMT
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