|
Post by sigurdur on Apr 25, 2021 13:02:57 GMT
Yep
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Apr 25, 2021 14:34:13 GMT
Where We Are - And Where We Are Going. An opinion from the Durden Report www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-04-24/whatever-happened-imminent-banking-crisisIn the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, many of us in the hedge fund industry expected continuing fallouts from the unresolved imbalances that were papered over with monetary and fiscal stimuli by governments and central banks. These measures failed to address, let alone resolve the systemic causes of the crisis. One of their consequences was a further weakening of large western banks, particularly the European ones. A new banking crisis was widely anticipated. Last June, Alasdair Macleod wrote that the "Next significant event therefore will almost certainly be the failure of a G-SIB if not in America, then elsewhere." [G-SIB = global systemically important bank]. In my recollection, Deutsche Bank for one, has been on a death watch at least since 2016, but the list of banks that should have collapsed already is long and full of household names.
Indeed, things looked very bleak when the Coronavirus pandemic struck and they deteriorated sharply from there. Yet, the banking system is limping along and no crisis has yet materialized. How to explain this? Last September I gave an interview on Renegade Inc. and went out on a limb with a hypothesis that only dawned on me about that time. Namely, I grew up in former Yugoslavia in the socialist regime under a one party system (Communist party, of course). The world I grew up in was pretty much one chronic crisis of stagflation which ultimately led to hyperinflation. My 'eureka!' moment happened when I realized that in spite of that state of affairs, we never had a banking crisis! No major bank failed and we had no bank runs at any point.
Namely, our government and the central bank simply QE-ed their way through the crisis and conjured up the money needed to cover the bad debts of our zombified corporations and kept the system going. By now this should all sound curiously familiar. The socialist zombie companies continued in operation and kept millions employed, many of them in bullshit jobs and thus the whole system limped along until it ultimately imploded. The money printing kept the system undead but the ultimate consequence of unchecked QE - hyperinflation and currency collapse - could not be avoided.
Once I realized this is where we are headed presently, I looked up again Mario Draghi's 25 March 2020 Financial Times OpEd and sure enough, it was all there. At the time I took Draghi's article merely as a reassurance to the markets in his own "whatever it takes" style. But upon revisiting his words it is clear that he was actually announcing and justifying a new financial regime: a full and permanent transition from whatever was left of a free market system to a full socialist system where political expedients and central planning replace market mechanisms. Mario Draghi's OpEd - www.ft.com/content/c6d2de3a-6ec5-11ea-89df-41bea055720bAnd it seems that this is where Washington is taking US as well. Fuel prices up, steel and lumber up, trucking rates way up, real estate going parabolic. They've been able to get away with the QE longer than seemed possible, and I'll even agree that it more or less worked. But I'm afraid that they've pushed it too far lately with the virus socialism.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Apr 25, 2021 19:31:31 GMT
"We have met the 1%, and he is us 8 years ago Willis Eschenbach Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
In explanation of my title, I fear I’ll have to go on a bit of a digression. Let me tell three stories, about people in three different parts of our amazing planet.
STORY THE FIRST: In my early thirties, through a series of misunderstandings and coincidences I spent some time as the first mate on a sailboat in the Philippines. At one point we spent a couple months anchored up offshore from the Manila Yacht Club while we were getting some boat repairs done. As befits a young man with more testosterone than sagacity, I spent the evenings in the dives and nightclubs in the local red-light district. Not paying for the favors of the ladies of the evening, you understand, that always seemed creepy to me. Just drinking and having a good time. One of the bars had a piano. It also had what they euphemistically called “hostesses”, who I was told could be very welcoming and most hostess-like in one of the upstairs rooms for a small donation to a good cause …"wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/13/we-have-met-the-1-and-he-is-us/An old if standard Willis tale. There are many times when I would prefer Willis to Biden. We need engineers not politicians
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Apr 25, 2021 22:46:56 GMT
"We have met the 1%, and he is us 8 years ago Willis Eschenbach Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
In explanation of my title, I fear I’ll have to go on a bit of a digression. Let me tell three stories, about people in three different parts of our amazing planet.
STORY THE FIRST: In my early thirties, through a series of misunderstandings and coincidences I spent some time as the first mate on a sailboat in the Philippines. At one point we spent a couple months anchored up offshore from the Manila Yacht Club while we were getting some boat repairs done. As befits a young man with more testosterone than sagacity, I spent the evenings in the dives and nightclubs in the local red-light district. Not paying for the favors of the ladies of the evening, you understand, that always seemed creepy to me. Just drinking and having a good time. One of the bars had a piano. It also had what they euphemistically called “hostesses”, who I was told could be very welcoming and most hostess-like in one of the upstairs rooms for a small donation to a good cause …"wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/13/we-have-met-the-1-and-he-is-us/An old if standard Willis tale. There are many times when I would prefer Willis to Biden. We need engineers not politicians For those that have not seen the slums (and their inhabitants) of Manila and Bangkok and a thousand (more) other destitute places in the World, they have missed the better part of their education. And let our engineers design and build and never even wish to be politicians.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Apr 26, 2021 1:20:47 GMT
Most US Citizens have no idea what poverty is.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Apr 26, 2021 2:00:03 GMT
Most US Citizens have no idea what poverty is. Ditto here.
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Apr 26, 2021 3:19:24 GMT
more soon
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Apr 26, 2021 4:21:37 GMT
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Apr 26, 2021 16:11:00 GMT
Historically, collapses of empires have been 'foreshortened' by the historical perspective. Rome took 150 years or so before the 'Visigoths' finally overran what was left. So in today's world that would be a collapse commencing in 2021 finally completing in 2171. Well outside the attention span of current politicians who only concern themselves with the next political election end date (currently 2020, or for those seen as real forward thinkers 2024) they are NIMTO's not in my term of office. In some respects UK is worse with Boris behaving like a bad AirBNB renter - I am not sure where he thinks things should go next. We should have engineers as government, lawyers and arts majors do not seem to have the correct mindset.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Apr 26, 2021 16:49:58 GMT
I have probably mentioned this before, but I came out to Florida under invitation from a university here in Daytona Beach, to become a research affiliate. (There are not that many aviation universities so it will be easy to find and the internet will let you find some of our output). I was 'required' to attend diversity training as a 'director' and my group was almost all international researchers including a Tanzanian with a masters in space physics and business admin and a Venezuelan with a masters in aviation and business admin - I succeeded in getting both of them Green Cards and they are now both Citizens. So there I was in a large square form meeting with the Uni HR and beancounters (neither my favorite type of person) and they went into what would now be called CRT and how some 'races' found it difficult to fit in. So I said I had found that when I was living in Belgium with some of the 'Walloons' but that working with the Flemish was easier. I immediately got puzzled blank looks from the Uni HR and beancounters when I followed that up with two countries separated by the same language thoughts of an Englishman living in Florida Uni HR and beancounters corrected me and said NO that is not what they were talking about and went into a more painstaking discussion of CRT - to which I replied AHHH you don't mean _race_ you mean Skin Color! That got me kicked by the Tanzanian and Venezuelan who both said don't argue we want to get back to doing something useful. **Walloons Walloons are a Romance ethnic group native to Belgium, principally its southern region of Wallonia, who primarily speak langues d'oïl such as Belgian French, Picard and Walloon. Walloons are a distinctive ethnic community within Belgium.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2021 18:53:16 GMT
I have probably mentioned this before, but I came out to Florida under invitation from a university here in Daytona Beach, to become a research affiliate. (There are not that many aviation universities so it will be easy to find and the internet will let you find some of our output). I was 'required' to attend diversity training as a 'director' and my group was almost all international researchers including a Tanzanian with a masters in space physics and business admin and a Venezuelan with a masters in aviation and business admin - I succeeded in getting both of them Green Cards and they are now both Citizens. So there I was in a large square form meeting with the Uni HR and beancounters (neither my favorite type of person) and they went into what would now be called CRT and how some 'races' found it difficult to fit in. So I said I had found that when I was living in Belgium with some of the 'Walloons' but that working with the Flemish was easier. I immediately got puzzled blank looks from the Uni HR and beancounters when I followed that up with two countries separated by the same language thoughts of an Englishman living in Florida Uni HR and beancounters corrected me and said NO that is not what they were talking about and went into a more painstaking discussion of CRT - to which I replied AHHH you don't mean _race_ you mean Skin Color! That got me kicked by the Tanzanian and Venezuelan who both said don't argue we want to get back to doing something useful. **Walloons Walloons are a Romance ethnic group native to Belgium, principally its southern region of Wallonia, who primarily speak langues d'oïl such as Belgian French, Picard and Walloon. Walloons are a distinctive ethnic community within Belgium. My experience has been that "race", or if you wish "skin color" (or, for that matter, any genetic physical trait) doesn't make a dime's worth of difference. Culture, on the other hand, can be downright debilitating. CRTers are right up there with flatearthers and AGWers in their capacity for critical thinking.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Apr 26, 2021 23:01:47 GMT
I have probably mentioned this before, but I came out to Florida under invitation from a university here in Daytona Beach, to become a research affiliate. (There are not that many aviation universities so it will be easy to find and the internet will let you find some of our output). I was 'required' to attend diversity training as a 'director' and my group was almost all international researchers including a Tanzanian with a masters in space physics and business admin and a Venezuelan with a masters in aviation and business admin - I succeeded in getting both of them Green Cards and they are now both Citizens. So there I was in a large square form meeting with the Uni HR and beancounters (neither my favorite type of person) and they went into what would now be called CRT and how some 'races' found it difficult to fit in. So I said I had found that when I was living in Belgium with some of the 'Walloons' but that working with the Flemish was easier. I immediately got puzzled blank looks from the Uni HR and beancounters when I followed that up with two countries separated by the same language thoughts of an Englishman living in Florida Uni HR and beancounters corrected me and said NO that is not what they were talking about and went into a more painstaking discussion of CRT - to which I replied AHHH you don't mean _race_ you mean Skin Color! That got me kicked by the Tanzanian and Venezuelan who both said don't argue we want to get back to doing something useful. **Walloons Walloons are a Romance ethnic group native to Belgium, principally its southern region of Wallonia, who primarily speak langues d'oïl such as Belgian French, Picard and Walloon. Walloons are a distinctive ethnic community within Belgium. My experience has been that "race", or if you wish "skin color" (or, for that matter, any genetic physical trait) doesn't make a dime's worth of difference. Culture, on the other hand, can be downright debilitating. CRTers are right up there with flatearthers and AGWers in their capacity for critical thinking. Throughout my 7 years in EUROCONTROL I traveled to a different European country every 3 days or so often as part of a team of 'peripatetic' Engineer managers. So often the same people would be at each meeting although in a different EU country. (They seemed to think it was a logical way to manage things ) Each meeting was a case of squeezing an hour's worth of discussion into 3 days - needless to say by the end of a few years we had become an engineer dining club - they got quite upset when I altered the approach to fly in to a meeting hotel have a meeting fly out that evening. If you want to eat well in Europe then Amsterdam is by far the best - heavy soups, lots of meat and veg, knackwurst (aka summer sausage) breakfasts with eggs and cheese and best bread rolls you can find anywhere. Find a good backstreet pub usually with a scattering of wooden tables. I can remember arriving at one I used to regularly go to. Getting seated then the 'manager' assuring me I should really be on the other side of the table. So instead of the bar on my left it would be on my right. I could see no logic in the change but he was insistent so I moved around the table. I got my beer Trappiste tripel then my food. Then the manager reappeared at a table now in front of me - and started interviewing new wait staff. These were mainly female undergrads from one of the local unis (his preferred source for waitresses) and dressed as you would expect Nederlands 19 year olds to dress on a hot summer night .
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Apr 27, 2021 1:19:53 GMT
My experience has been that "race", or if you wish "skin color" (or, for that matter, any genetic physical trait) doesn't make a dime's worth of difference. Culture, on the other hand, can be downright debilitating. CRTers are right up there with flatearthers and AGWers in their capacity for critical thinking. Throughout my 7 years in EUROCONTROL I traveled to a different European country every 3 days or so often as part of a team of 'peripatetic' Engineer managers. So often the same people would be at each meeting although in a different EU country. (They seemed to think it was a logical way to manage things ) Each meeting was a case of squeezing an hour's worth of discussion into 3 days - needless to say by the end of a few years we had become an engineer dining club - they got quite upset when I altered the approach to fly in to a meeting hotel have a meeting fly out that evening. If you want to eat well in Europe then Amsterdam is by far the best - heavy soups, lots of meat and veg, knackwurst (aka summer sausage) breakfasts with eggs and cheese and best bread rolls you can find anywhere. Find a good backstreet pub usually with a scattering of wooden tables. I can remember arriving at one I used to regularly go to. Getting seated then the 'manager' assuring me I should really be on the other side of the table. So instead of the bar on my left it would be on my right. I could see no logic in the change but he was insistent so I moved around the table. I got my beer Trappiste tripel then my food. Then the manager reappeared at a table now in front of me - and started interviewing new wait staff. These were mainly female undergrads from one of the local unis (his preferred source for waitresses) and dressed as you would expect Nederlands 19 year olds to dress on a hot summer night . My last trip to Amsterdam (June 2019 on our way to Croatia) left me disappointed. It seemed like the old city had fallen into some disrepair since my last visit in the late 90s on a flythru from Saudi. Back then I could peruse the old town pubs and eateries from a decent $50 room above a store. Of course I was younger, but it seemed less grimy then. Remember babysitting a generally decent young American, staying in the same building, for the better part of a night, as he was slowly ODing on some tablet heroin he had picked up on the streets. He slowly recovered and we avoided having to take him to a hospital. His friends were not really helping, and we had to talk him down and keep him cognizant for half the night. Otherwise, Amsterdam was great. The pubs were very entertaining and the company generally congenial. And as you say, the food and the barmaids were excellent.
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Apr 27, 2021 1:50:11 GMT
Agree too many tourists, but I think a solution is found, fear a lot of fear. Can't wait to go.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Apr 27, 2021 3:16:07 GMT
|
|