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Post by sigurdur on Sept 8, 2019 23:32:05 GMT
Yep.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 18, 2019 20:51:56 GMT
Yes and no to jet is tropospheric Acidohm. The current understanding, or at least the only one I seem to be able to find, is that the Jet at times interlopes into the Stratosphere. That is the only known mechanism for the somewhat large increase in H2O vapor in the Strat. Models indicate that it can't happen, but it most certainly seems to happen. I guess we're all used to seeing graphics of the jet meandering over the planet surface but yes, there must be vertical undulations also. Id imagine that as loopy components meet, one part could easily go above or below the other as they compete for space, for example.. Bit like matching poles of magnets... So, i dived into archives and dug up the jet diagrams for the period discussed in the article i posted this evening in the ssw thread.... Compare folded jet image above to this with respect to quoted comments.... (If you can follow all that 🤔)
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 30, 2019 16:18:22 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Sept 30, 2019 18:54:01 GMT
We've had more then a few days like this....forget loopy, jet is folding on occasion...
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 30, 2019 19:23:22 GMT
They are somewhat loopy with jet streaks as well as open ended broken jets both hemispheres... 250HpA
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Post by flearider on Sept 30, 2019 20:58:44 GMT
Antarctic is breaking down .. arctic is forming .. with a hotter sun it would happen faster but we have a lot of slack atm
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 30, 2019 22:45:17 GMT
Antarctic is breaking down .. arctic is forming .. with a hotter sun it would happen faster but we have a lot of slack atm Hope you like cod. I do, but all fish is expensive here. Unless I start snagging jumping Silver Carp out of the Missouri River. Lot of bones, but a big fish.
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 1, 2019 1:02:57 GMT
I never really thought about it but it stands to reason that a strong jet keeps weather systems moving along. A weak meridional jet would trap both cold and warm air masses in areas for much longer periods of time. Allowing for more frequent extremes that would otherwise be moderated by quicker movement.
We saw it with Harvey in 2017 and with Dorian and Imelda this year. These tropical storms seem to lack direction, stall and cause tremendous damage from a lack of movement up and out.
I by no means even try to forecast the weather but if the pattern continues there will be brutal cold for long periods of time this winter in the NH and vise versa.
It would stand to reason that one could look at maps and positions of the ice sheets during the last ice ages for a preview of what is to come. While maps of the jets look crazy and chaotic their may be cyclical patterns caused by low solar.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 1, 2019 2:08:53 GMT
I never really thought about it but it stands to reason that a strong jet keeps weather systems moving along. A weak meridional jet would trap both cold and warm air masses in areas for much longer periods of time. Allowing for more frequent extremes that would otherwise be moderated by quicker movement. We saw it with Harvey in 2017 and with Dorian and Imelda this year. These tropical storms seem to lack direction, stall and cause tremendous damage from a lack of movement up and out. I by no means even try to forecast the weather but if the pattern continues there will be brutal cold for long periods of time this winter in the NH and vise versa. It would stand to reason that one could look at maps and positions of the ice sheets during the last ice ages for a preview of what is to come. While maps of the jets look crazy and chaotic their may be cyclical patterns caused by low solar. Glen, did you emerge unscathed from your last drenching?
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 1, 2019 3:23:31 GMT
I never really thought about it but it stands to reason that a strong jet keeps weather systems moving along. A weak meridional jet would trap both cold and warm air masses in areas for much longer periods of time. Allowing for more frequent extremes that would otherwise be moderated by quicker movement. We saw it with Harvey in 2017 and with Dorian and Imelda this year. These tropical storms seem to lack direction, stall and cause tremendous damage from a lack of movement up and out. I by no means even try to forecast the weather but if the pattern continues there will be brutal cold for long periods of time this winter in the NH and vise versa. It would stand to reason that one could look at maps and positions of the ice sheets during the last ice ages for a preview of what is to come. While maps of the jets look crazy and chaotic their may be cyclical patterns caused by low solar. Glen, did you emerge unscathed from your last drenching? Yes thank you for asking. We only received about 10" of rain. However, about 40 miles east of my house in Winnie Texas they received about 43" of rain and many of the houses that flooded in Harvey two years ago flooded again. My heart goes out to those people who flooded twice in the last two years.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 1, 2019 20:36:02 GMT
I never really thought about it but it stands to reason that a strong jet keeps weather systems moving along. A weak meridional jet would trap both cold and warm air masses in areas for much longer periods of time. Allowing for more frequent extremes that would otherwise be moderated by quicker movement. It goes one step further then simply trapping air Glenn. What gives us brutal cold in europe would be High pressure somewhere between Scandinavia and Greenland. This literally Blocks the zonal flow, and even reverses it. Low pressure from the arctic circle may 'retrogress' from, for example, NE of scandinavia head west and park near UK. What you then have is Beast from the East. Here the southern track of the HP and northern of the LP feed from the east, from as far as Siberia. No ocean temperature modulation, pure continental airmass. Where this air passes over the N Sea, snow showers come in across the UK. The real bad boy however, it to get some secondary depression feature near our shores, the moisture from this can pump snow all over the place and is what happened in '47 & '63 for example. All of the above a very likely to be associated with an SSW. It seems once the stratospheric vortex peturbs or even splits AND propagates negative wind speeds to the troposphere, all hell breaks loose......
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Post by Ratty on Oct 2, 2019 1:37:42 GMT
I never really thought about it but it stands to reason that a strong jet keeps weather systems moving along. A weak meridional jet would trap both cold and warm air masses in areas for much longer periods of time. Allowing for more frequent extremes that would otherwise be moderated by quicker movement. It goes one step further then simply trapping air Glenn. What gives us brutal cold in europe would be High pressure somewhere between Scandinavia and Greenland. This literally Blocks the zonal flow, and even reverses it. Low pressure from the arctic circle may 'retrogress' from, for example, NE of scandinavia head west and park near UK. What you then have is Beast from the East. Here the southern track of the HP and northern of the LP feed from the east, from as far as Siberia. No ocean temperature modulation, pure continental airmass. Where this air passes over the N Sea, snow showers come in across the UK. The real bad boy however, it to get some secondary depression feature near our shores, the moisture from this can pump snow all over the place and is what happened in '47 & '63 for example. All of the above a very likely to be associated with an SSW. It seems once the stratospheric vortex peturbs or even splits AND propagates negative wind speeds to the troposphere, all hell breaks loose...... I predict it will all get much worse with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide .... by 2100.
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