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Post by sigurdur on Jul 26, 2013 13:03:17 GMT
It is well documented that ozone varies with the solar cycle. This in turn affects the jet streams. This in turn drives the AGW crowd nuts, and they blame any weather on climate change rather than the true source of the variations, which is the sun.
CO2 is just a bit player in all of this, and facts are showing this with more regularity.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 21, 2013 23:34:02 GMT
This is an interesting chart It looks just like 'Cuttys' ideogram of meridonal jetstreams
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 22, 2013 1:13:32 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 22, 2013 20:49:20 GMT
The paper misses out the clouds from the Ferrel cells in the more meridonal flows that would increase albedo and limit ocean warming. This is Stephen Wilde's theory. See the discussion here The idea that there is only one 'control knob' for a chaotic system of interacting chaotic systems is far too simplistic. I think that when 'all of the above' happen at just the right time and strength the climate can flip to another attractor very rapidly - possibly in a decade. Most of the proxies used do not have the resolution to see fast changes so the assumption is that all climate changes are 'geological times' hundreds of years. Yet research in a glacier in South America shows frozen flowers under snow from the end of the previous interglacial.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 19, 2014 15:54:25 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Apr 20, 2014 5:43:16 GMT
I'm confused, the article suggests that a drop in solar energy was the cause of a "curvy" jet 4000 years ago: "The rainfall patterns reveal the jet stream was relatively "flat," moving straight and steady from about 8,000 to 4,000 years ago, the study reports. Then, about 4,000 years ago, the amount of solar energy reaching the Northern Hemisphere dropped. (This drop was caused by Earth's 20,000-year precession, the slow change in its rotation axis.) The change in the sun's energy altered worldwide climate, such as triggering a stronger El Niño/La Niña cycle and a shift in monsoonal rainfall over India and Pakistan. The jet stream pattern also shifted 4,000 years ago, going from flat to curvy over a period of about 500 years"It then goes on to say: "So was this winter's bizarre weather the result of natural climate swings? Not at all, Bowen said."
"All things being equal, with the solar forcing that kicked in 4,000 years ago, we'd actually expect to be heading the other way now and starting to decrease the jet stream curviness," Bowen told Live Science.Hasn't the solar energy reaching the Earth dropped recently? PMOD Composite TSI Monthly Average:
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 20, 2014 10:08:13 GMT
The jet streams are the result of the atmospheric circulation with hotter air in the tropical troposphere rising and moving to the poles and in doing so being subject to 'geostrophic force'. So the main driver is the tropospheric temperature gradient between equator and poles. The start at 4000 years ago (if true) could be linked to the Earth cooling from the Holocene optimum with more cooling at the poles than at the equator and thus the temperature gradient becoming sufficient for the jet streams to be identifiable from the proxies the study used. The jet streams may perhaps have been there all the time but further poleward and weaker.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 20, 2014 13:34:29 GMT
Cutty: My thoughts exactly.
Naut: As you noted, all of a sudden jet streams showed up 4,000 years ago? Rather defies logic doesn't it?
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 29, 2014 16:28:46 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 29, 2014 18:49:32 GMT
Yep
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Post by nautonnier on May 2, 2014 12:37:39 GMT
This a real latitudinal jet stream
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 8, 2014 20:25:30 GMT
As Joe Bastardi says - Let the AGW proponents explain this one... Yes its a spin off 'oxbow lake' from the polar jet.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 9, 2014 19:26:01 GMT
So how does an 'ox bow' form? Well the loop becomes so sinuous that the entrance and exit join cutting off the loop. with decreasing jet stream winds they favour the lower reaches of the river as opposed to the 'younger' phases where the high energy allows it to run near straight.
I thought Bastardi was a forecaster?
With the reduction of temp /pressure gradient the polar jet is becoming far more sinuous ( allowing for the 'stalled' weather patterns be they recurrent lows or blocking highs) so the occurrence of 'cut off' sections will surely become a more common feature? ( nature always wants to find the easiest route)
In the UK we are stuck in 'reverse weather' this past 6 weeks with a warm from progged to come in from the east overnight just adding to the oddness ( with a lack of a strong Jet we are not getting our normal run of west to east weather systems allowing the heat from the continent to now spill back over us.
Strange times indeed!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 9, 2014 20:46:52 GMT
Yes, strange times indeed as the magnetic field continues its decline.
I think it is almost time to look at the magnetic field threads that were started on this board long ago.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 14, 2014 16:04:56 GMT
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