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Post by Ratty on May 16, 2020 8:06:10 GMT
Temp is tanking where its had that warm flow for some time! Been thinking that on my daily visit to:  |
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Post by nonentropic on May 16, 2020 20:01:44 GMT
and SOI rising in a solid way also.
Its not clear that a La Nina is in play but it will be welcome.
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Post by missouriboy on May 17, 2020 0:16:04 GMT
and SOI rising in a solid way also. Its not clear that a La Nina is in play but it will be welcome. In our generally accepted 70-year record, there has always been a Nina (following a Nino) of varying intensity as the next cycle takes off. I am betting on the repetition.  |
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Post by acidohm on May 25, 2020 21:37:01 GMT
😲😲😲😲😲
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Post by Ratty on May 26, 2020 1:15:03 GMT
and SOI rising in a solid way also. Its not clear that a La Nina is in play but it will be welcome. Yes, please, and please may we avoid another Blob in the PNW Write to your Congressman. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 26, 2020 1:20:26 GMT
I would say slightly greater than the ~1973 drop, accomplished over a shorter period of time. Goodbye positive AMO. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 26, 2020 1:22:26 GMT
and SOI rising in a solid way also. Its not clear that a La Nina is in play but it will be welcome. Yes, please, and please may we avoid another Blob in the PNW The PDO follows ENSO. The only blob you're getting is gonna be cold.  |
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Post by glennkoks on May 26, 2020 12:56:02 GMT
From the picture of the SST's that Ratty posted it certainly appears that our oceans are a little cooler than they have been. The beginnings of a Nina look evident and lots of cooler SST's in the NW Atlantic and Pacific.
With that being said the conditions look really good for a "Super" hurricane season in the Atlantic. Nina's usually lead to lower wind shears in the tropical Atlantic and presto more development. So while I usually leave long term weather forecasting to Theo I am preparing myself mentally for the barrage of news stories from the AGW crowd about the "Climate Emergency" and hurricanes.
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Post by nautonnier on May 26, 2020 14:58:32 GMT
From the picture of the SST's that Ratty posted it certainly appears that our oceans are a little cooler than they have been. The beginnings of a Nina look evident and lots of cooler SST's in the NW Atlantic and Pacific. With that being said the conditions look really good for a "Super" hurricane season in the Atlantic. Nina's usually lead to lower wind shears in the tropical Atlantic and presto more development. So while I usually leave long term weather forecasting to Theo I am preparing myself mentally for the barrage of news stories from the AGW crowd about the "Climate Emergency" and hurricanes. Well we are both positioned to get the best first hand experience of hurricanes  I could do without a landfalling major here we have had a couple of years with them running up the FL East coast and that is getting a little too exciting  There is a peninsula here that could easily become a chain of islands if we get another Matthew |
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Post by glennkoks on May 26, 2020 16:14:52 GMT
From the picture of the SST's that Ratty posted it certainly appears that our oceans are a little cooler than they have been. The beginnings of a Nina look evident and lots of cooler SST's in the NW Atlantic and Pacific. With that being said the conditions look really good for a "Super" hurricane season in the Atlantic. Nina's usually lead to lower wind shears in the tropical Atlantic and presto more development. So while I usually leave long term weather forecasting to Theo I am preparing myself mentally for the barrage of news stories from the AGW crowd about the "Climate Emergency" and hurricanes. Well we are both positioned to get the best first hand experience of hurricanes I could do without a landfalling major here we have had a couple of years with them running up the FL East coast and that is getting a little too exciting There is a peninsula here that could easily become a chain of islands if we get another Matthew I still have a detached garage missing the lower four ft. of drywall. The last scars still evident from Harvey three years ago... It's been on my list of things to do but I think I will put it off until after this hurricane season. Again. |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 26, 2020 17:24:46 GMT
And I've now permanently moved to Waveland, Mississippi, where my house is located right where Katrina's eye crossed the coast in 2005. This home is better built, and the bottom of the first floor is 22 feet above mean sea level, but I'll bet only my outdoor stairs survive the next CAT 4 or 5 to hit this coast. I was hoping I'd get another ten years before the next dangerous storm (they seem to come every 30 years, or so. 1916, 1947, 1969, 2005), but life is full of surprises. Best of luck to all of us on the coasts, and here's hoping for a lot of fish storms, and any majors crossing the coast only peripherally affecting the major population centers.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 30, 2020 10:47:28 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 30, 2020 16:00:10 GMT
VERY good find Acid. I'm going to have to read this several times with a focus on absorption. It seems he settles on two primary explanations for the two cold events of 2009-10 and 2014-15 in the North Atlantic. 1. The mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic has experienced a record-breaking cold anomaly that began in early 2014 and peaked in the summer of 2015, caused largely by extreme surface heat loss. 2. An earlier, weaker cold anomaly in 2009–2010 was driven primarily by a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Thus, both the ocean and atmospheric components of the coupled climate system can generate strong interannual variability in ocean temperature. Number 1, if true, must represent a truly remarkable transfer of heat (and thus H2O vapor?) to the atmosphere over a relatively short period of time, focused on a relatively small geographic area. He talks NAO, but what are these "magic" vortices really? Makes Ross Perot's giant sucking sound appear trivial. Is this one of those global electric circuit thingy effects? We have speculated on how fast heat can leave the ocean ... so if this is valid, then PDQ for a geographic area the size of the central N Atlantic Ocean (in comparison). A high latitude equivalent of a mid-east Pacific El Nino or La Nina? Back in my ARGO analysis days I compiled the following chart for the N Atlantic (45-65N) showing the monthly deviations from 2004 for SSTs and the column 0-700m, It shows the huge seasonal surface range (summer-fall + Winter -) anomaly. At depth is shown a downward trend from at least 2009-10 onward accelerating in the 2014-15 period. Thus a seasonal and long-term net "sucking effect". Much larger than the 2009-10 results which he passes off to the MOC. This deserves followup. Perhaps under the title of ... Does the Global Electric Circuit Suck? And if it sucks, it must also (insert favorite antonym).  |
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 8, 2020 20:23:39 GMT
"Florida current is weaker now than at any point in the past century
by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
A key component of the Gulf Stream has markedly slowed over the past century—that's the conclusion of a new research paper in Nature Communications published on August 7. The study develops a method of tracking the strength of near-shore ocean currents using measurements made at the coast, offering the potential to reduce one of the biggest uncertainties related to observations of climate change over the past century.
"In the ocean, almost everything is connected," said Christopher Piecuch, an assistant scientist in the Physical Oceanography Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and author of the study. "We can use those connections to look at things in the past or far from shore, giving us a more complete view of the ocean and how it changes across space and time." "More here> phys.org/news/2020-08-florida-current-weaker-century.html
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 8, 2020 20:56:21 GMT
"Florida current is weaker now than at any point in the past century
by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
A key component of the Gulf Stream has markedly slowed over the past century—that's the conclusion of a new research paper in Nature Communications published on August 7. The study develops a method of tracking the strength of near-shore ocean currents using measurements made at the coast, offering the potential to reduce one of the biggest uncertainties related to observations of climate change over the past century.
"In the ocean, almost everything is connected," said Christopher Piecuch, an assistant scientist in the Physical Oceanography Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and author of the study. "We can use those connections to look at things in the past or far from shore, giving us a more complete view of the ocean and how it changes across space and time." "More here> phys.org/news/2020-08-florida-current-weaker-century.html I see their problem ... and I fixed it, One of the biggest uncertainties in climate models is the behavior of ocean currents modelers. |
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I could do without a landfalling major here we have had a couple of years with them running up the FL East coast and that is getting a little too exciting 
There is a peninsula here that could easily become a chain of islands if we get another Matthew 