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Post by nautonnier on Nov 2, 2013 18:58:41 GMT
An interesting lecture based on the CERN Cloud Experiment that seems to echo the Reading University Professor Lockwood statement: "He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24. Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%."As Harold Ambler would say - don't sell your coat
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Post by magellan on Nov 3, 2013 2:11:52 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 3, 2013 2:23:07 GMT
I respect that he is enough of a scientist to learn as new information becomes available.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 3, 2013 11:27:01 GMT
I respect that he is enough of a scientist to learn as new information becomes available. Or to start to look for a way off the sinking bandwagon?
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 3, 2013 14:07:05 GMT
I respect that he is enough of a scientist to learn as new information becomes available. Or to start to look for a way off the sinking bandwagon? I used to believe in AGW. The science began to show it was not as prevalent as thought so I believed less. Now the science shows the effect to be minor so I go with that. I have no problem with anyone who understands now that their position 10 years ago was wrong.
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Post by karlox on Nov 3, 2013 15:25:13 GMT
Or to start to look for a way off the sinking bandwagon? I used to believe in AGW. The science began to show it was not as prevalent as thought so I believed less. Now the science shows the effect to be minor so I go with that. I have no problem with anyone who understands now that their position 10 years ago was wrong. That was my case Sigur! I´d ´bought´ and accepted Al Gore´s speech and approach back in the past, nowadays I wouldn´t object for public funding but dedicated only to Pure Scientific Researchs and investigation; i.e: since I believe our Sun is currently giving us a unique opportunity as a modern civilization (satellite era) to closely watch, weigh and better understand possible weather patterns shifts and modulations; and we really don´t know enough about what are we coming to -uncapable of accurately predicting a few decades ahead- ( Astromet did dare to predict: mostly NEUTRAL-LA NADA ENSO for next years. That´s a clear stand point at least!) so can´t accept that billions have to be raised through taxes due to this CO2 scare movie. I do support and care and would like all sort of investments for stopping rain-forest destruction, ocean´s overexploitation and pollution and get rid of as much SO2 and NO2 polluting the air we breathe, or clean poisoned soils, I worry about nuclear waste and how is being handled (see what French do) , against wind-mill farma ruining our landscapes and birdlife, but CO2 increase is NOT what is challeging mankind as a whole, in my opinion. It is not easy to bear your own layman conclusions and defend them without being labeled either side! (that learned in different forums!)
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Post by douglavers on Nov 3, 2013 22:55:44 GMT
A fascinating geophysical/solar experiment is now being played out, with the Sun having abruptly moved from its most active in 8,000 years to a far less active state. Over the next three to five years, I think this will provide a direct test of its influence on the earth's climate, and possibly indicate the amplification mechanisms, although other major items such as long cycle sea currents and Milankovich type astronomical effects may also be more clearly identified. Theories which basically extrapolate the last three decades based on only one non-solar primary driver might well fare badly. My own view is that in the decades ahead, the view that changes in the earth's climate are principally driven by carbon dioxide will come to be seen as bizarre. The way that conflicting evidence was ignored or swept under the carpet will be seen as psychologically and politically interesting. There is a discussion about Wegener and his Continental Drift theories at the following site; www.scientus.org/Wegener-Continental-Drift.htmlHe was a little unlucky - it only took about 50 years for him to be proved right! Some of the comments made have an eerily familiar ring. BTW, like Sigurdur, I have no problem with people changing their view on a theory. I strongly object to views being held rigidly long past their "use by" date, in the process wasting our prosperity.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 4, 2013 11:51:35 GMT
A fascinating geophysical/solar experiment is now being played out, with the Sun having abruptly moved from its most active in 8,000 years to a far less active state. Over the next three to five years, I think this will provide a direct test of its influence on the earth's climate, and possibly indicate the amplification mechanisms, although other major items such as long cycle sea currents and Milankovich type astronomical effects may also be more clearly identified. Theories which basically extrapolate the last three decades based on only one non-solar primary driver might well fare badly. My own view is that in the decades ahead, the view that changes in the earth's climate are principally driven by carbon dioxide will come to be seen as bizarre. The way that conflicting evidence was ignored or swept under the carpet will be seen as psychologically and politically interesting. There is a discussion about Wegener and his Continental Drift theories at the following site; www.scientus.org/Wegener-Continental-Drift.htmlHe was a little unlucky - it only took about 50 years for him to be proved right! Some of the comments made have an eerily familiar ring. BTW, like Sigurdur, I have no problem with people changing their view on a theory. I strongly object to views being held rigidly long past their "use by" date, in the process wasting our prosperity. If the Sun continues its descent into a nadir of activity, one of the other interesting aspects will be timescales for changes to occur. Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, forecasts using the Sun (modulated by the moon) and sees relatively immediate effects. The claims repeatedly made are that the changes in Earth's climate will be extremely gradual. Yet the metrics being used are of such coarse granularity that they could not show a rapid change. There have been hints in the past of very rapid climate shifts, one site found flowers in bloom trapped under ice (I will try to find the URL) the point is though that we could see a far more rapid response to the Sun than currently forecast. In his paper Using the Oceans as a Calorimeter to Quantify the Solar Radiative Forcing Nir Shaviv found what he called an amplifying effect and stated "We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI variations" Well the changes may be a little larger from the Sun - so it will be interesting to see how rapid the effects are.
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 5, 2013 9:47:13 GMT
New paper finds the Sun controls European & North Atlantic weather via ocean oscillations: The Schtick reports: A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres finds changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle had a significant, lagged effect on North Atlantic & European weather patterns over the 140 year period from 1870-2010. According to the authors, "The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11-year solar signal over Europe and the North Atlantic provided the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this." The paper suggests a solar amplification mechanism by which tiny 0.1% changes in solar irradiance during solar cycles have a lagged effect on the natural North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which in turn has large effects upon North Atlantic & European weather patterns. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications finding solar amplification mechanisms including ocean oscillations such as ENSO and the NAO, atmospheric oscillations such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Quasi-biennial Oscillation, Aleutian Low, Eurasian pattern, & Asian monsoon, and via stratospheric ozone, and sunshine hours/clouds. Paper link: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD020062/abstractSchtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/new-paper-finds-sun-controls-european.html
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Post by strongminded on Nov 8, 2013 1:30:21 GMT
All:
I believe that what we have to look at here is that there is more than a bit of hubris in the idea behind AGW. I have elluded to this on other posts. Mankind wants to believe that he/she has so much control that he/she can control the climate, good or bad. Again I will say..sometimes it is just not about us.
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Post by trbixler on Nov 11, 2013 17:24:39 GMT
I guess that another Maunder is more than possible, in spite of skyrockets exhortations. "Strange Doings on the Sun" ""I would say it is the weakest in 200 years," said David Hathaway, head of the solar physics group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala." link
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 11, 2013 18:18:07 GMT
I guess that another Maunder is more than possible, in spite of skyrockets exhortations. "Strange Doings on the Sun" ""I would say it is the weakest in 200 years," said David Hathaway, head of the solar physics group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala." linkWith the normal caveat at the end that 'global warming' is still happening. Sad that they feel the mantra is necessary, I wonder what future scientists will think about it. After all its not as cleaver as adding epicycles.
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 12, 2013 8:38:20 GMT
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Post by karlox on Nov 12, 2013 8:59:53 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 15, 2013 10:00:06 GMT
New paper finds amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate via pressure changes. The Sun’s fluctuating magnetic field has a greater influence on our weather system than at first thought, according to researchers from the British Antarctic Survey. It has long been known that fluctuations in the solar wind result in meteorological effects on Earth, but Mai Mai Lam and her colleagues believe that these effects are presently poorly represented in weather and climate models. "It has been assumed that the effect of the Sun’s magnetic field on our weather is strongest at the poles and negligible at low- and mid-latitudes," Lam told environmentalresearchweb. "While it is true that the effects are strongest at the poles, we have found effects as far down as North Africa and up to Uruguay."Lam and colleagues discovered that changes in the surface pressure of the Earth’s atmosphere correlated with changes in the Sun’s magnetic field. While the changes at the poles were caused by a direct effect, an indirect effect was felt at lower latitudes: the change in surface pressure at the poles modulated weather patterns at mid-latitudes. "The effects we saw were small, but not insignificant," said Lam. "If the Earth’s atmospheric pressure varies naturally +/? 30 hPa, we noticed an effect of around +/? 2 hPa, which is about the same size as the initial errors in ensemble weather forecasting. So while the effect is small, if it were incorporated into weather models, it could change forecasts." According to Lam, previous proposals to link solar wind variations to significant weather or climate variability have been dismissed on the grounds that the magnitude of the energy change in the atmosphere associated with the solar wind variability is far too small to impact the Earth’s system. However, this argument neglects the importance of non-linear atmospheric dynamics. [i.e. solar amplification] "We have shown that a relatively localized and small amplitude solar influence on the upper polar atmosphere could have an significant effect, via the nonlinear evolution of atmospheric dynamics, on critical processes such as European climate and the breakup of Arctic sea ice," said Lam. "We would ultimately like to see this effect incorporated into weather forecasting models, but first more research needs to be carried out to explore this effect and also to understand the mechanism behind it." Link: environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/55341Schtick's take: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/new-paper-finds-amplification-mechanism.html
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