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Post by douglavers on Jul 9, 2013 11:25:17 GMT
Actually, I don't think the English fleet did much damage to the Armada as a whole in the Channel.
It anchored off Calais, and then fireships caused them to disperse again.
I think there was some desperate fighting thereafter, and eventually the Spanish attempted to sail home via Scotland and Ireland.
Few survived a series of storms.
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Post by karlox on Jul 9, 2013 15:34:11 GMT
he hated everything about England - the climate, the food and the people. The climate and the people haven't improved, but the food is marginally better these days... Never mind, Felipe II didn´t like Spaniards either, but got along well with his Vatican crow-comrades...
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 10, 2013 9:20:09 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds another mechanism by which the Sun controls climate A paper published today in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology finds climate change in the NE Pacific over the past ~5000 years has been strongly related to solar activity. The paper also finds yet another solar amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate, stating, "High solar activity ... may have been manifested as a prolonged westward shift and/or weakening of the Aleutian Low in the mid-late Holocene, which would have diverted fewer North Pacific storms and resulted in the relatively dry conditions reconstructed for the [NE Pacific]." The Aleutian Low is one of the main centers of action of the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere. The IPCC claims tiny variations in solar activity cannot affect climate, but this paper and hundreds of others demonstrate solar activity has greatly amplified effects upon climate via ocean oscillations, stratospheric ozone, sunshine hours/clouds, and atmospheric oscillations such as the Madden-Julian oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation, and Aleutian Low. Schtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/new-paper-finds-another-mechanism-by.htmlPaper link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018213003192
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 11, 2013 8:34:10 GMT
NASA solar scientist David Hathaway has updated his solar cycle 24 prediction page: The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtmlThe comparison with cycle 14 is an interesting one as the UK’s weather during that period (1902-1913) was remarkably similar to that which we are currently experiencing. The range of weather experienced during the stunted cycle 14 included such extremes as washout Summers, scorching record maximum Summers, one of the COLDEST summers on CET record, severe thunderstorms, cold Winters with heavy snowstorms.A few examples: 1903 (Annual):1. Notably WET by the EWP series: in the 'top-10' of wet years in that series, and the wettest year since 1872. (For London/Kew Observatory specifically, it was the WETTEST year in a series that began in 1697). 1906 (Summer):1. A fine summer. It ended with an intense HEATWAVE at the end of August 1906. TEMPERATURES reached or exceeded 32degC widely on four consecutive days from the 31st August. Of note, the September record MAXIMUM of 35.6degC was set at Bawtry, South Yorkshire on the 2nd September. 1906 (December):1. HEAVY SNOWSTORMS 26th-30th in much of Scotland, as a succession of polar lows/troughs moved south in an arctic airstream. Widespread SNOW elsewhere across Britain, the snow though not reaching the London area until early on the 26th. Severe transport dislocation across northern Scotland (Aberdeen and other centres isolated for at least 3 days), and snow disruption elsewhere over Britain. 1908 (Annual):1. A notable year for HEAVY SNOWFALL. 1909 (Summer):1. One of the 15 or so COLDEST summers using the CET record (13.9degC) across England & Wales [in a record back to 1659]. 1911 (31st May): SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ENGLAND1. Violent thunderstorms were reported from many parts of lowland south-eastern England on this day, with local flooding/landslips, lightning and gust damage. In particular, a total of 17 people were killed in the London area, and 4 horses died on Epsom Downs on this 'Derby Day'. 1911 (Summer):1. Notably WARM (& for many a SUNNY, see below) summer; high PRESSURE was near or above the British Isles for many weeks at a time, with southern areas especially favoured. One of the top 7 or so WARMEST of the century, and just in the 'top-10' all-series summers (as at 2011). Using the CET series (began in 1659). 1912 (Summer): NOTABLY WET, COOL & DULL 1913 (January):1. 11th/12th January: a HEAVY SNOWFALL in southern Scotland and northern England. SNOW fell in a considerable depth, especially in Perthshire with SNOWDRIFTS of up to 3m in places. Railway and postal services were delayed. Link: booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1900_1949.htm
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Post by mkelter on Jul 12, 2013 2:56:07 GMT
As we break out our winter coats for the remainder of Solar Cycle 24, it is wise to break out our history books lest we forget that our Planet is a warm oasis in a very cold space. Cuttydyer does a good job of reminding us that SC14 (circa 1906) was the beginning of a fairly cold period, which currently serves as an Alarmist baseline to argue non-stop anthropogenic global warming until the present day.
As similar as Solar experts believe that SC24 compares to SC14, for many reasons it is conceivable that SC24 could wind up looking more like SC5 (circa 1798) and the resulting Dalton minimum. We may need to turn the pages of our history books further back to get an inkling of what we could face.
SOLAR CYCLE 14
Without a doubt there are some similarities between SC14 and SC24. Both appear to have maximum amplitudes of 64 to 67. Both were preceded by a long duration of spotless days (938 for SC 14 and 821 for SC24.) That's as the comparison goes, so far.
List of Solar Cycles
Solar Cycle 14 was preceded by two solar cycles of small amplitude and average frequency. SC12 had an SSN amplitude of 74.6 and a duration of 11.3 years, and SC13 had an SSN amplitude of 87.9 and a duration of 11.9 years. Within the smoothed SSN, SC14 looked like a roller coaster with semi-annual applitude ranging from 80 to 20.
SC24, on the other hand, was preceded by two more robust cycles. SC22 had an SSN amplitude of 158.5 and a duration of 9.7 years, and SC23 had an SSN amplitude of 120.8 and a duration of 12.6 years. Without a doubt, the heat generated by the preceding solar cycles continues to dissipate during the existing colder cycle, setting the stage for "Wild Weather" events. SC24 does not have nearly the amplitude variation of SC14.
SOLAR CYCLE 5
Although SC24 appears to have greater amplitude that SC5 (SSN = 49.2), the similarities between SC24 and SC5 are compelling as shown below:
The cycles preceding SC5 look more like the cycles that preceded SC24. SC3 had an SSN amplitude of 158.5 and a duration of 9.3 years, and SC4 had an SSN amplitude of 141.2 and a duration of 13.7 years. Considering that these cycles were observed with instrumentation far less sophisticated than what are used today, it is possible that we are measuring and counting sunspots today that could never have been detected in the late 18th Century. SC24 could, in fact, wind up being as weak over the duration of the cycle, as SC5.
SC5 WEATHER
The similarities between weather events in the late 18th and early 19th centuries are strikingly similar to what we are seeing today.
In 1793, five years prior to the beginning of SC5, the heat in Europ became oppressive. The high temperatures observed during the summer were:
Valence, France (104.0° F, 40.0° C) on 11 July Paris, France (101.1° F, 38.4° C) on 8 July Paris, France ( 99.1° F, 37.3° C) on 16 August Chartres, France (100.4° F, 38.0° C) on 8 August Chartres, France (100.6° F, 38.1° C) on 16 August Verona, Italy ( 96.1° F, 35.6° C) in July and August London, England ( 89.1° F, 31.7° C) on 16 July
Marie (Let them Eat Cake) Antoinette was beheaded that year.
Droughts took a toll on crops in Pennsylvania and throughout Europe. China got tore up by floods. And hurricanes in the Carribean killed hundreds of people.
In 1798, the beginning of SC5, Australia suffered a severe drought that destroyed the wheat and maize crops. In New South Wales, Australia in September, the pastures and gardens needed rain. There were brush fires in December. The thermometer read 107° F (41.7° C) in the shade at Windsor.
That year the US experienced the "Long Winter" where the Delaware River froze from January 22 to March 15. The Seine River froze for 20 days, and the Baltic Sea even froze.
On September 25, 1798 a Hurricane struck Halifax, Nova Scotia causing 100,000 sterling pounds in damage.
In 1803, five years into SC5, The River Thames went dry in London, England and people were able to cross the river on foot.
In Russia, in St. Catherine's Castle, unusual changes in temperature were observed. On 9 May thetemperature stood at 25.2° F (-3.8° C). Two days later on 11 May, the temperature had risen to 86.0° F (30.0° C).
In 1803 in New South Wales, Australia, in March the drought was severely felt in all parts of the colony. On 29 May, there had been no rain except passing showers since July 1802.
On 9 June 1803 in London, England, the Haymarket and several adjoining streets suffered terribly from a hailstorm. Windows were demolished wholesale. In no other part of London was any damage sustained by this storm.
In France, the summer of 1803 was remarkable for the sustained high heat and drought. The heat began in late June and lasted until the end of August. The drought was from 15 June to 1 October; all this time it only rained for 9 days. The wells and springs were dried up, and in some areas, individuals had to travel for 3 to 4 hours to fetch water.
By the end of SC5 in December 1810, weather conditions deteriorated. Fleets of ships were destroyed by hurricanes. Millions died of famine in China and India. Boston and Philly were innudated by tidal waves. The Meuse River froze.
And that wasn't the end of it. SC6, which began in December 1810, was every bit the weak cycle that SC5 was that preceded it. By 1812, Napolean was retreating from Moscow in the coldest Russian winter on record to that date.
Source: breadandbutterscience.com
DON'T THINK IT CAN'T HAPPEN AGAIN.
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Post by trbixler on Jul 12, 2013 3:51:23 GMT
There is more than a little worry about SC25.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 15, 2013 7:55:23 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 15, 2013 9:27:19 GMT
The Irish Times reports: Sun’s bizarre activity may trigger another ice age Latest data shows solar activity has been falling steadily since mid-1940 The sun is acting bizarrely and scientists have no idea why. Solar activity is in gradual decline, a change from the norm which in the past triggered a 300-year-long mini ice age. Three leading solar scientists presented the very latest data about the weakening solar activity at a teleconference yesterday in Boulder, Colorado, organised by the American Astronomical Society. It featured experts from Nasa, the High Altitude Observatory and the National Solar Observatory who described how solar activity, as measured by the formation of sunspots and by massive explosions on the sun’s surface, has been falling steadily since the mid-1940s. The sun goes through a regular 11-year cycle with a maximum, when sunspot activity is at its peak, followed by a minimum when sunspot numbers are reduced and are smaller and less energetic. We are supposed to be at a peak of activity, at solar maximum. The current situation, however, is outside the norm and the number of sunspots seems in steady decline. The sun was undergoing “bizarre behaviour” said Dr Craig DeForest of the society. “The sun’s current maximum activity period is very late and very weak, leading to speculation that the sunspot cycle itself could be shutting down or entering a dormant phase,” he said before the teleconference. Irish solar science specialist Dr Ian Elliott, formerly of the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, quoted from figures released by Nasa on July 1st. It had asked an expert group to predict sunspot activity using models, with an upper limit and a lower limit. The predictions suggested the monthly average sunspot total should range between 90 and 140, but in fact the present monthly average is only 67, Dr Elliott said. A typical average at maximum during much of the early 20th century was about 200. “It is the smallest solar maximum we have seen in 100 years,” said Dr David Hathaway of Nasa. We are currently in solar cycle number 24 which is about half as active as cycle 23, but cycle 25 is likely to be smaller again due to changes in the magnetic flux on the sun’s surface,” he said. Dr Giuliana de Toma of the High Altitude Observatory acknowledged the clear signs that solar activity was in decline but this did not mean the earth was heading for another “Maunder Minimum”. This was a time between 1645 and 1725 when solar activity was extremely low or nonexistent, a situation which caused a mini ice age. The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said. “It all points to perhaps another little ice age,” he said. “It seems likely we are going to enter a period of very low solar activity and could mean we are in for very cold winters.” And while the researchers in the US said the data showed a decline in activity, they had no way to predict what that might mean for the future. Link: www.irishtimes.com/sun-s-bizarre-activity-may-trigger-another-ice-age-1.1460937
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Post by trbixler on Jul 15, 2013 14:03:24 GMT
So a natural cycle is bizarre. What is bizarre is that the Maunder is mentioned but cast aside as if it would not happen. Dr. Willie Soon has postulated that another Maunder like event is possible and not bizarre at all. Of course years ago he was labeled a climate denier but now his view is looking more likely to become reality.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 16, 2013 2:34:55 GMT
The Irish Times reports: Sun’s bizarre activity may trigger another ice age The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said. “It all points to perhaps another little ice age,” he said. “It seems likely we are going to enter a period of very low solar activity and could mean we are in for very cold winters.” And while the researchers in the US said the data showed a decline in activity, they had no way to predict what that might mean for the future. So Dr Elliott is a realist. "For the worse?" the political meme has been warming was for the worse. . . .it'll kill polar bears! And our solar guys don't have climate model budgets to predict what is going to happen? Congress and Obama can fix that in a hurry!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2013 3:32:28 GMT
I don't think there is enough good data to make a solar prediction with confidence.
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Post by trbixler on Jul 16, 2013 4:13:49 GMT
Sig So much puffery has been made about CO2 and not enough research effort directed towards our very own star. I get that there is not the political control as is with CO2 as the evil problem. But I would not bet against the sun being the driver.
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Post by Pooh on Jul 16, 2013 4:24:26 GMT
Archibald, David. “NASA Now Saying That a Dalton Minimum Repeat Is Possible.” Blog. Watts Up With That?, July 28, 2009. wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/28/nasa-now-saying-that-a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-possible/D’Aleo, CCM, Joseph. “Dalton Like Solar Minimum - Back to the Age of thingyens?” Scientific. Intellicast - This Week in Weather, November 9, 2009. www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=207Svalgaard, Leif. “New Solar Cycle Not Packing Much Punch.” Scientific. Leif Svalgaard’s Research Page, May 20, 2008. www.leif.org/research/New%20Solar%20Cycle%20Not%20Packing%20Much%20Punch.pdfChang, Kenneth. “Is the Sun Missing Its Spots?” News. The New York Times, July 21, 2009. www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2&pagewanted=print
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2013 4:24:31 GMT
Sig So much puffery has been made about CO2 and not enough research effort directed towards our very own star. I get that there is not the political control as is with CO2 as the evil problem. But I would not bet against the sun being the driver. I have no doubt that the Sun is the major driver. When it comes to cycle length, variation, etc I don't think anyone knows enough to forecast. As far as climate, we are in worse shape.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 16, 2013 5:01:38 GMT
Sig So much puffery has been made about CO2 and not enough research effort directed towards our very own star. I get that there is not the political control as is with CO2 as the evil problem. But I would not bet against the sun being the driver. I have no doubt that the Sun is the major driver. When it comes to cycle length, variation, etc I don't think anyone knows enough to forecast. As far as climate, we are in worse shape. Having done big modeling developing prediction ability on solar is really ripe right now. Steve has been right about one thing all along that models are a great tool for learning how to predict. Climate has been very difficult because for the entire computer era (at least as a modeling tool) we had been facing pretty much linear warming. Its very difficult to learn stuff, even with computers, when you don't get variation. So now the variation is digging in and all the climate models are built for the wrong variable. The sun itself appears to have crested a grand maxima and is on the way back down. I sense from discussion in the solar community really interesting stuff is occurring like the Livingstone Penn finding and the weak cycle 24. Modelers love this kind of variation as it creates enough data change to start a wholesale elimination of bad variables. climate science though has become so politicized its embedded like a religion. Not sure if that crowd is open to anything. Certainly scientific skepticism has been relegated to a couple of handfuls of scientists. Trim down the CO2 crowd to the size of the current solar climate crowd you would have more than enough to fund the solar climate guys and enough extra to fund the guys actually studying the sun. Like I say, there is a lot of variation going on, hopefully we are capturing all the data we can. Obviously the best people to tell us that are the guys studying solar science so I don't know what proportion should be dedicated to modeling and what to observation. But we probably should get off the dime on it. Of course a tax refund would nice too.
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