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Post by sigurdur on Jan 14, 2018 15:35:53 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 14, 2018 15:41:36 GMT
www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=50837#.VFbJ-L4pxFJFrom 1950 to 1987 a strong relationship existed between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and HadCRUT4 global average temperature anomaly, interrupted occasionally by volcanic erup-tions. After 1987 the relationship diverged, with temperature anomaly increasing more than ex-pected, but was re-established after 1997 at an offset of ~0.48°C higher. The period of increased warming from 1987 to 1997 loosely coincided with the divergence of the global average tempera-ture anomalies over land, which are derived from observation station recordings, and the global average anomalies in sea surface temperatures.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 14, 2018 17:20:49 GMT
Something I saw somewhere, and the last 2 spots seem similar..cycle 24 spots should be nearer the equator, as in the butterfly pattern. Spots nearer the pole, as in the last 2, (and at least one previously which produced the article in question) are the first spots of the cycle 25?? www.stce.be/node/359Here...no idea as to validity of this 🤔 From (August) the guy with the difficult accent. www.gavsweathervids.com/sc24-25.htmlYou watch him then? It's his chat room where I learn about weather models etc. There's some ok people there, one is a bit, howdyaputit....needy?? Still, very well informed individuals. Interesting that personally I started at the sun and worked back through climate change to weather, mostly these guys started with weather and work the other way. Good though cuz that's where I lack knowledge!
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 14, 2018 19:16:11 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 1, 2018 14:02:25 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Feb 1, 2018 23:54:05 GMT
Note this comment by a lsvalgaard:
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 2, 2018 3:58:50 GMT
Perhaps they're worried about a fall of the current dynasty ... the Unsong.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 6, 2018 16:26:24 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 6, 2018 18:48:03 GMT
So the solar variability which is trivial is now going to partially offset global warming, thus global warming is also trivial surely by this measure.
surely the errors will dominate the measurement process!
Scripps is making a fool of themselves by always referencing to the CAGW metric. Why not simply say what they believe the temperature perturbation will be with the errors.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 7, 2018 1:23:06 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 7, 2018 3:21:46 GMT
That's A Lot of UVUltraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs Dan Lubin1, Carl Melis2, and David Tytler2 Published 2017 December 27 • © 2017. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 852, Number 1 Abstract We have identified a sample of 33 Sun-like stars observed by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) with the short-wavelength spectrographs that have ground-based detections of chromospheric Ca ii H+K activity. Our objective is to determine if these observations can provide an estimate of the decrease in ultraviolet (UV) surface flux associated with a transition from a normal stellar cycle to a grand-minimum state. The activity detections, corrected to solar metallicity, span the range $-5.16\lt \mathrm{log}{R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -4.26$, and eight stars have log ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -5.00$. The IUE-observed flux spectra are integrated over the wavelength range 1250–1910 Å, transformed to surface fluxes, and then normalized to solar B − V. These normalized surface fluxes show a strong linear relationship with activity ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }$ (R 2 = 0.857 after three outliers are omitted). From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum. The 95% confidence interval in this grand-minimum estimate is 5.5%–8.4%. An alternative estimate is provided by the IUE observations of τ Cet (HD 10700), a star having strong evidence of being in a grand-minimum state, and this star's normalized surface flux is 23.0 ± 5.7% lower than solar cycle minimum.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 7, 2018 8:27:11 GMT
That's A Lot of UVUltraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs Dan Lubin1, Carl Melis2, and David Tytler2 Published 2017 December 27 • © 2017. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 852, Number 1 Abstract We have identified a sample of 33 Sun-like stars observed by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) with the short-wavelength spectrographs that have ground-based detections of chromospheric Ca ii H+K activity. Our objective is to determine if these observations can provide an estimate of the decrease in ultraviolet (UV) surface flux associated with a transition from a normal stellar cycle to a grand-minimum state. The activity detections, corrected to solar metallicity, span the range $-5.16\lt \mathrm{log}{R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -4.26$, and eight stars have log ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -5.00$. The IUE-observed flux spectra are integrated over the wavelength range 1250–1910 Å, transformed to surface fluxes, and then normalized to solar B − V. These normalized surface fluxes show a strong linear relationship with activity ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }$ (R 2 = 0.857 after three outliers are omitted). From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum. The 95% confidence interval in this grand-minimum estimate is 5.5%–8.4%. An alternative estimate is provided by the IUE observations of τ Cet (HD 10700), a star having strong evidence of being in a grand-minimum state, and this star's normalized surface flux is 23.0 ± 5.7% lower than solar cycle minimum. Is there anything there that might appertain to our star?
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 7, 2018 9:31:05 GMT
That's A Lot of UVUltraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs Dan Lubin1, Carl Melis2, and David Tytler2 Published 2017 December 27 • © 2017. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 852, Number 1 Abstract We have identified a sample of 33 Sun-like stars observed by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) with the short-wavelength spectrographs that have ground-based detections of chromospheric Ca ii H+K activity. Our objective is to determine if these observations can provide an estimate of the decrease in ultraviolet (UV) surface flux associated with a transition from a normal stellar cycle to a grand-minimum state. The activity detections, corrected to solar metallicity, span the range $-5.16\lt \mathrm{log}{R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -4.26$, and eight stars have log ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -5.00$. The IUE-observed flux spectra are integrated over the wavelength range 1250–1910 Å, transformed to surface fluxes, and then normalized to solar B − V. These normalized surface fluxes show a strong linear relationship with activity ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }$ (R 2 = 0.857 after three outliers are omitted). From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum. The 95% confidence interval in this grand-minimum estimate is 5.5%–8.4%. An alternative estimate is provided by the IUE observations of τ Cet (HD 10700), a star having strong evidence of being in a grand-minimum state, and this star's normalized surface flux is 23.0 ± 5.7% lower than solar cycle minimum. Is there anything there that might appertain to our star? I think that was the point of the exercise. The study implies that the Sun's output could drop to between 18%-28% of normal. If that affects the shorter wavelengths out to UV then it may become a little chilly. I think I am right in saying that the assumption has previously been that the Sun is close to constant output (despite being called a variable star) and that the only way that ice ages can happen is due to Earth's declination and orbital changes (Milanković cycles). These doubtless have an effect. However, now there is another potential reason the Sun going quiet - which of course could also be due to orbital changes of other planets (ask Bary..) So _IFF_ this extended quiet period, that seems to be being ignored more than the quiet period between SC23 and SC24, lasts as long as expected another few years.... you may regret selling your coat.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 7, 2018 19:22:47 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Feb 7, 2018 21:17:07 GMT
Impacts of Shortwave Penetration Depth on Large-Scale Ocean Circulation and Heat Transport COLM SWEENEY
Pdf file I can't seem to copy as a link...
Uv penetrates deeper then visible light and especially ir.
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