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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Oct 7, 2014 5:21:47 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Oct 7, 2014 13:23:48 GMT
Are the predictions for an El Nino in 2015 out yet?
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 7, 2014 21:01:41 GMT
Are the predictions for an El Nino in 2015 out yet? The only prediction I have seen so far is Astromet's prediction that there will be no ENSO events until a really frigid La Nina in 2020-2021 that will prove right Harold Ambler's advice to 'Don't Sell Your Coat'. Given the total lack of success of other long range forecasting this year (what busy Hurricane season?) I'll go with Theo.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 7, 2014 22:14:55 GMT
Eventually A stuck clock is right twice a day.
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Post by slh1234 on Oct 12, 2014 12:44:54 GMT
Since I posted an earlier post or two about typhoons on this thread, and there isn't really a better thread for posting tropical weather, I'll just stick with this thread. We're under Typhoon warning on the southeast coast of Korea again as Vongfong is making its way generally in our direction. The current track from the Hong Kong observatory actually shows it veering off from us and taking a track almost straight up the southern Japanese islands. If that holds true, the eye won't get close to us. Currently, it has 130 MPH maximum sustained winds. It's still southwest of Fukuoku, but the winds and waves really have picked up in Busan. It's actually been so windy on the coast of Korea this last week or two that I'm not sure that many people will notice the wind difference this Typhoon will cause if it doesn't get any close than the current track says. However; I got a chuckle as I was browsing for forecast info this last hour or so when one forecast for tomorrow actually says, "Tons of rain." This is at least the third typhoon to affect us in Busan this year. None of them have been direct hits, but about 2 weeks ago we had a weakening tropical storm that gave us a direct hit. I have to catch a train to Seoul in the morning. I don't think anything in the weather will change that plan. I've been in this condo on the 53rd floor through enough high winds now that I'm very confident in its ability to withstand. I've always heard about how much a skyscraper sways in high winds, but I've tried everything from the pendulum from the ceiling to water on the desk, and there just is no detectable movement in this building in the winds we've experienced. (FWIW, all of our pictures are actually suspended from the ceiling on wires along the walls - we're not allowed to put nails in the walls to hang pictures. There is never any movement from those suspended pictures). I got out and took pictures from safe vantage points during Typhoon Neoguri and posted some here. I sat in my office and took videos of velocity of the clouds as another typhoon came in this year. That trip to Seoul tomorrow means I'll have to miss the fun of the storm this time
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Post by Ratty on Oct 12, 2014 23:10:13 GMT
Are the sea temps around Japan/Korea too cool to sustain serious typhoon activity? SST Anomalies
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Post by douglavers on Oct 12, 2014 23:40:18 GMT
Cyclones need at least a water temp of about 27 degC to "work" properly.
Personally, I found the North Atlantic so coooll ...
I think the Gulf Stream has switched to its "cold" attractor. Europe may not enjoy the experience. Interesting that the same effect seems to be apparent over the Asian coast.
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Post by slh1234 on Oct 13, 2014 12:01:29 GMT
I'm not sure what constitutes "Serious Typhoon Activity," but at the time I posted above, VongFong had sustained winds of about 130 MPH. Thats a very strong Typhoon ... just not meeting with the alarmist-sounding label of "Super typhoon." To try to answer the questions on sea temperatures, here are a couple of links: Current Sea Temperatures: www.seatemperature.org/asia/south-korea/busan.htmAverage yearly temperatures off Busan: www.seatemperature.org/asia/south-korea/busan-october.htmSo in winter, it is very similar to San Francisco (One of many former domiciles I have had). It warms much more in summer than San Francisco does, though. However; it's still not Cancun-like sea temperatures ... just perfect IMO to make you feel alive when you get into it in spring and autumn. Like I mentioned above, we have not had any direct hits onto Korea with full-force typhoons this year, but it does happen, and sometimes, it leaves a reminder. Here is one such reminder that the folks of Busan decided to just leave in place: That rock sits near Guangalli in Busan, Korea. It was deposited there by a typhoon in 2003. The Typhoon carried it in and deposited it there. In the cleanup, the people of Busan apparently decided they liked it as a souvenir more than they liked it removed, so instead of removing it, they just posted a placard telling its story, and left it in place. Storms do strange things . Busan does take direct hits from Typhoons sometimes - including some very strong ones. However, they are usually weakening when they arrive. This year, we haven't had a direct hit from a full strength typhoon, but we have been affected by an unusually high number.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 13, 2014 23:44:50 GMT
I'm not sure what constitutes "Serious Typhoon Activity," but at the time I posted above, VongFong had sustained winds of about 130 MPH. Thats a very strong Typhoon ... just not meeting with the alarmist-sounding label of "Super typhoon." [ Snip ] slh1234, I realise that VongFong was a serious storm; I'd watched it since its genesis and thought initially it was headed for China. I was also watching the SST anomalies and, as it turned North, I wondered if the cooler temps South of Japan would be able sustain the intensity. PS: Thanks once again for your very informative response.
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Post by graywolf on Oct 26, 2014 12:45:42 GMT
Well we are entering the time period that I expect to see the long range nino forecasts putting up 'double dip' plots showing another strong chance for a strong nino forming from jan/feb next year? There have been a couple of hints from www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html showing quite a number of the members going for a 2c+ event by next summer/ We nearly got there this time but the atmosphere was still dominated ( over the northern summer) by strong trades but they appear weaker than at their record max speeds over recent years? If Atlantic/Pacific basins are approaching parity then we ought to expect a big reorganisation of the anomalous 'warm pool' out in the west Pacific as the winds penning it up there fall light? With global temps over most of this year being massively influenced by ocean temps it does appear that we are nearing the end of the 'hiatus' and the processes burying heat in the oceans are faltering. Should this prove true then we could see a few massively warm years in front of us as the oceans not only refuse to bury the energy but also leach out the accumulated surface heat. We know what a narrow strip of warm water along the equator does to global temps so what ought we expect from huge swathes of the world's oceans begin to bleed off heat? The run up to chrimbo will probably see forecast still pushing for Nino conditions to establish but the forecasts will begin to push ( again!) for a strong Nino to develop. We all know the longer we go the closer we get to a Nino but this also heralds the point where Mother N. says "Enough!" and stops trying to keep temps stable. She will try again to stabilise things once they settle out at their new high but this time we will know what we are looking for and what a 'slowdown' is really storing up for us?
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Post by acidohm on Oct 26, 2014 12:53:34 GMT
I'm beginning to feel a bit alarmed. ..
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 26, 2014 16:35:28 GMT
Well we are entering the time period that I expect to see the long range nino forecasts putting up 'double dip' plots showing another strong chance for a strong nino forming from jan/feb next year? There have been a couple of hints from www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html showing quite a number of the members going for a 2c+ event by next summer/ We nearly got there this time but the atmosphere was still dominated ( over the northern summer) by strong trades but they appear weaker than at their record max speeds over recent years? If Atlantic/Pacific basins are approaching parity then we ought to expect a big reorganisation of the anomalous 'warm pool' out in the west Pacific as the winds penning it up there fall light? With global temps over most of this year being massively influenced by ocean temps it does appear that we are nearing the end of the 'hiatus' and the processes burying heat in the oceans are faltering. Should this prove true then we could see a few massively warm years in front of us as the oceans not only refuse to bury the energy but also leach out the accumulated surface heat. We know what a narrow strip of warm water along the equator does to global temps so what ought we expect from huge swathes of the world's oceans begin to bleed off heat? The run up to chrimbo will probably see forecast still pushing for Nino conditions to establish but the forecasts will begin to push ( again!) for a strong Nino to develop. We all know the longer we go the closer we get to a Nino but this also heralds the point where Mother N. says "Enough!" and stops trying to keep temps stable. She will try again to stabilise things once they settle out at their new high but this time we will know what we are looking for and what a 'slowdown' is really storing up for us? Graywolf: The law of averages indicates that at some point in the future we will have another El Nino. Will it be this winter/spring? Could be. As far as all this extra heat in the oceans, from CO2, it just isn't there. The exact happenings from a solar max showed up in a slight accumulation of heat in the oceans. It is not ocean wide, and yes, is in the Indian Ocean region. I, for one, am not sure the atmosphere is going to couple to provide us with an El Nino this coming year. Surface temps in the NH are dropping fast. Is this a normal response to the sun being at a minimum stage? I don't know, and literature is scant on this. Could we warm slightly in 2015? Maybe, or we could continue flat or even cool. Looks like a crap shoot to me. I am leaning slightly cooler because the surface temps of the North Pacific and Atlantic are exhibiting a cooling trend.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 26, 2014 16:36:17 GMT
Graywolf: The reliability, at present, of models indicating an El Nino is not very good. Wouldn't put a whole lot of stock on those.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 26, 2014 18:15:43 GMT
Into this comes a post from Joe Bastardi on WUWT about a small El Nino that is on its way now due to the drop he forecast in the SOI actually happening. Interestingly, as Joe uses analog years as a forecasting method, he shows the El Nino in 1958 and the drop in temperatures by 1961 current SST ( left) then in Jan 1958 middle, then in Jan 1961he is forecasting that in 2 - 3 years time the temperatures will drop. That is a good match to Theo's forecast for 2017 being the start of a drop to cold.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Nov 6, 2014 15:17:45 GMT
Noaa released their monthly update today and as I predicted they continue to back off. So they are no longer favoring an El Niño to start this year. (Do not let the recent spike in SST's fool you as it will be short lived) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...y/ensodisc.htmlThe CPC/IRI Consesus Probabilities coninue to decrease. (Lowest they have been in the last 12 months) The corrected Probability Density Function forecasts are showing some cooling over the next couple months.(Starting at the end of November) Spring 2015 anyone?
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