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Post by sigurdur on Dec 24, 2013 14:40:24 GMT
Hi. NOAA is predicting an El Nino for 2014 according to one of the ag blogs that I read.
Thoughts on probability?
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 24, 2013 16:13:13 GMT
The NOAA model has been forecasting an El Nino for some time but Modoki seems to hold sway. There does not seem to be much of a 'warm pool' in the West to provide the warmth for an El Nino but there is a lot of cold water in the Pacific. For the entire existence of NOAA we have been in the PDO warm phase, I wonder if their tools are biased warm?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 24, 2013 16:16:34 GMT
The NOAA model has been forecasting an El Nino for some time but Modoki seems to hold sway. There does not seem to be much of a 'warm pool' in the West to provide the warmth for an El Nino but there is a lot of cold water in the Pacific. For the entire existence of NOAA we have been in the PDO warm phase, I wonder if their tools are biased warm? That is my worry Nautonnier, that the forecast is biased to a warming ocean which we are not observing presently. It is too bad that science didn't recognize the PDO until recently.
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Post by karlox on Dec 25, 2013 8:40:20 GMT
Could we read that most Forecast models predicts a moderate El Niño building up in 2014 but with values below +0.5 (still Neutral) til 2014 spring?
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 26, 2013 16:41:39 GMT
Could we read that most Forecast models predicts a moderate El Niño building up in 2014 but with values below +0.5 (still Neutral) til 2014 spring? Karlox, that model has looked the same for the past year. The Modoki line wandering above then below the El Nino and the 'tassels' of the model ensemble all forecasting El Nino. They have been incorrect for the last year. I don't see any warm pool in the western Pacific. But I do see cold either side of the line that the El Nino normally biulds. I am not convinced that the models can cope with the kind of SST pattern that exists at the moment as they are solely based on comparison of atmospheric pressures in the Nono 3.4 boxes
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 26, 2013 17:04:33 GMT
To follow on from that last post, look at this latest SST anomaly map: Note that North and South of the El Nino 'line' which is at cool to normal SST there are pools of anonalously cold SST. From the model point of view this is the same as the El Nino line being anomalously warm compared to SST to the North and South. This is what happens when you use a proxy rather than direct measurements when they are available.
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Post by billlee49 on Dec 27, 2013 3:01:32 GMT
I'll be honest, out here in very dry California, an El Nino would be rather welcome. My wife and I have had to give up skiing for the last two years due to lack of significant snow in the Sierra. Here in the Valley, we're sitting at about 30% for rainfall for the year--now two sub-par rainy seasons in a row, working on a third.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2013 5:15:56 GMT
The effect from the sun on climate is so little known. What a great time for study.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 26, 2014 14:18:54 GMT
I've seen a report from a Dutch Uni looking for 2014 to be the start of a 'large' El Nino ( large in terms of length of time it influences). They are using a new 'long range' forecasting method focussing on ocean temps in the West Pacific and surrounding areas. A normal length Nino would be 18 months of influence ( unlike the 2010 one which only ran for 9 months but still pushed global temps above those the 98' 'Super Nino' gave us?).
Another Paper from Dec 2013 looked at a reduction in the period between 'Super Nino's' , Historically 20 yrs. Seeing as we saw 15 years between the last two 'Supers' then this current 16 yr gap might well hint at the 2014/15 Nino turning into a 'Super'?
Autumn and winter are the worst parts of the season for accurate prediction of upcoming ENSO phases so we have seen the forecast, over the past few years, favour nino only to end up neutral by spring/summer forecasts.
This time surely statistics favour a nino forming? With only a stunted Nino since the run of PDO influenced Nina's /neutrals took hold we do appear long overdue a 'normal' Nino ( or even a 'Super'?).
The 'odd' H.P. over the north Pacific seems to be swamping the current PDO 'horse shoe' and even , at times, placing a warm PDO+ one in it's place? Maybe this also hints at a phase shift to PDO+ and a Super Nino to kick off this swap? With folk also predicting the flip of the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the next few years we may be looking at a fall away from the negative natural drivers and back into a run of positive natural drivers ( with their impacts on global temps?)?
I'm waiting until we see the next few monthly updates as we've seen them move from a neutral summer, to a mostly neutral with a chance of Nino summer, to the last outlook which was a 50/50 split for neutral/Nino over the summer. Should the next few forecasts begin to show a Nino dominance with neutral falling away then I'll be even more convinced we are due a 'normal' Nino.......as for the rest? well time will tell but we could be in for an interesting 5 years with a flip back to accelerated warming ( above 0.2c/decade), a loss of the Arctic Sea Ice ( further adding into the warming/climate extremes) and a re-assessment of the Antarctic sea ice extent algorithms robbing us of the rate of sea ice increase there since the 80's?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 26, 2014 16:50:29 GMT
Thanks Graywolf. Can you provide a link to your sources please?
I was on the +50% chance of an El Nino this coming summer......but with the general pattern now, it looks more and more like neutral conditions. The dry California/West Coast and cold eastern 2/3 of USA indicates general patterns not conducive to an El Nino, more a precursor of a La Nina type of event.
The La Nina/El Nino re-analysis are so riddled with Statistical error that I have given up relying on them as a credible source of information. Another item that I think, without any scientific justification, is the sea floor has changed because of the few large earth quakes in the Western Pacific, and the resulting Tsumi. Just a thought tho?
Also crossing my mind is the effect of the Greenland High and the Icelandic Low position. Does this affect the circulation of the Pacific? That persistent pool of warm water off Alaska does seem to go hand in hand with where the High and Low are positioned. Is there a greater coupling between ocean basins than has been previously thought?
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Post by icefisher on Jan 26, 2014 17:14:53 GMT
This time surely statistics favour a nino forming? With only a stunted Nino since the run of PDO influenced Nina's /neutrals took hold we do appear long overdue a 'normal' Nino ( or even a 'Super'?). Science is grasping at straws. Nobody has demonstrated skill in predicting the longterm evolution of the PDO. But thats not surprising since the first science paper to identify the phenomena was dated 1996. I'm waiting until we see the next few monthly updates as we've seen them move from a neutral summer, to a mostly neutral with a chance of Nino summer, to the last outlook which was a 50/50 split for neutral/Nino over the summer. Should the next few forecasts begin to show a Nino dominance with neutral falling away then I'll be even more convinced we are due a 'normal' Nino.......as for the rest? well time will tell but we could be in for an interesting 5 years with a flip back to accelerated warming ( above 0.2c/decade), a loss of the Arctic Sea Ice ( further adding into the warming/climate extremes) and a re-assessment of the Antarctic sea ice extent algorithms robbing us of the rate of sea ice increase there since the 80's? Its a long reach to deny a solar connection. As such its highly unlikely the CAGW warmists got it anywhere near close to right making CO2 the primary climate driver. It was a reach to do that in the first place with CO2 trailing temperatures. While the possibility exists for some warming from CO2 its not likely we will see a return to .2C/decade warming unless its solar driven. Since we are now at an anemic maximum with solar decline to proceed in a couple of years long term warming does not appear to be in the cards for a return anytime soon.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 26, 2014 17:45:42 GMT
I think the solar effect on cloud formation is more critical than TSI levels
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jan 27, 2014 13:51:35 GMT
Could we read that most Forecast models predicts a moderate El Niño building up in 2014 but with values below +0.5 (still Neutral) til 2014 spring? Karlox, that model has looked the same for the past year. The Modoki line wandering above then below the El Nino and the 'tassels' of the model ensemble all forecasting El Nino. They have been incorrect for the last year. I don't see any warm pool in the western Pacific. But I do see cold either side of the line that the El Nino normally biulds. I am not convinced that the models can cope with the kind of SST pattern that exists at the moment as they are solely based on comparison of atmospheric pressures in the Nono 3.4 boxes Sigurdur, I have not seen NOAA is predicting an El Niño anywhere. On the official page here, NOAA firmly states that ENSO Neutral conditions are expected to continue through summer 2014. As far as the two groups of models that NOAA maintains, the CFSv2 is clearly caught in some sort of feedback loop, and is not bracketing reality at this time. That group of models has been terrible in the past, and now appears to be scanning Micheal Mann's wildest fantasy. It is absolutely useless. The IRI/CPC model runs seem to be trending warmer, but... lets just say that I am not confident in those models either. Personally, I thought that the Pacific Warm Pool looked like it was ramping up six months ago, but poof, summer down there has been a bust so far. I'm seeing a whole lot of blah, and I expect ENSO neutral for at least the next six months. On the bright side, things can change down there in March, April and May, and it is very hard to predict anything past those months. The great drought continues to march West, and I think the Pacific Northwest will get a little break from that big ridge over California in February, but I think that California itself is boned, and will stay dry until later next year. Those guys are going to be hurting come summer.
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Post by magellan on Jan 28, 2014 4:09:42 GMT
It would be fun to revisit the multitudes of posts on NOAA ENSO predictions and how utterly wrong they've been since I've joined this forum. How can they even call it a prediction when their models constantly change outputs? That means they can't predict long term any better than short term weather forecasts; a few days ahead. Here's a good read from 4 1/2 years ago. rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2009/07/noaa-explains-global-temperature.htmlThe problem is they continually move the goal posts. I remember when it was 10 years. When it reached 10, they upped it to 15, then 17. Next they'll say 25. They make it up as they go along.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 28, 2014 16:00:31 GMT
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