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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2014 10:17:03 GMT
65% chance of El Nino returning? Model-speak?
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Post by graywolf on Dec 7, 2014 14:54:32 GMT
Well either 'near Nino' never went away or the naturals have begun turning positive...... or global temp records for the year are all lies! Though I really did believe that this time ( 2014 spring) would see the Nino build into a fully fledged Nino the resurgent Trades put it back on hold but temps across the regions never strayed too far from the threshold?
I'd said earlier in the year that I was now expecting a 'double dip' Nino and it now appears that that reading of recent Enso behaviours was pretty good? If the naturals that have allowed the anomalous trades to pile up the west Pacific warm pool and push a run of Nina's are on the cusp of switching positive then we might also expect this nino not only to form but to intensify over late summer early spring ( as we have seen so many large KW's to push out in late Jan/early Feb over recent years bolstering the forecasts for Nino formation?) and then plough through summer without Trade wind dampening it?
Should this prove to be the case then the failing trades will allow that fat pile of warm water in the west Pacific ( pushing up sea levels around the nations situated there) to also pulse back into the Nino regions over the rest of the year and into 2016.
All in all once we lose the anomalous trades ( via the atmosphere synchronising or the Atlantic/Pacific equatorial basins reaching parity.... or both!) then we have nothing holding that warm pool in place any more and so gravity will play its part and we will inherit a lot of warmth as it spills east and warms the air above.
As a footnote, should the IPO be turning back to its 'surface warming phase' then the positive PDO will also remain. Both of these will also play there part in keeping atmospheric temps on the up and up.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 7, 2014 16:15:40 GMT
Well either 'near Nino' never went away or the naturals have begun turning positive...... or global temp records for the year are all lies! Though I really did believe that this time ( 2014 spring) would see the Nino build into a fully fledged Nino the resurgent Trades put it back on hold but temps across the regions never strayed too far from the threshold? I'd said earlier in the year that I was now expecting a 'double dip' Nino and it now appears that that reading of recent Enso behaviours was pretty good? If the naturals that have allowed the anomalous trades to pile up the west Pacific warm pool and push a run of Nina's are on the cusp of switching positive then we might also expect this nino not only to form but to intensify over late summer early spring ( as we have seen so many large KW's to push out in late Jan/early Feb over recent years bolstering the forecasts for Nino formation?) and then plough through summer without Trade wind dampening it? Should this prove to be the case then the failing trades will allow that fat pile of warm water in the west Pacific ( pushing up sea levels around the nations situated there) to also pulse back into the Nino regions over the rest of the year and into 2016. All in all once we lose the anomalous trades ( via the atmosphere synchronising or the Atlantic/Pacific equatorial basins reaching parity.... or both!) then we have nothing holding that warm pool in place any more and so gravity will play its part and we will inherit a lot of warmth as it spills east and warms the air above. As a footnote, should the IPO be turning back to its 'surface warming phase' then the positive PDO will also remain. Both of these will also play there part in keeping atmospheric temps on the up and up. Thats a little confusing. Are you predicting two el ninos back to back upcoming or are you predicting a double dip because you are in denial that the last el nino you predicted did not happen?
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Post by cuttydyer on Dec 7, 2014 18:01:44 GMT
As a footnote, should the IPO be turning back to its 'surface warming phase' then the positive PDO will also remain. Both of these will also play there part in keeping atmospheric temps on the up and up. You're neglecting the AMO. Here's the AMO trend, back to the middle of the 19th C: As a comparison, here's the RSS global mean trend and the AMO trends going back to the 1990's (nice fit!!!): Now zoom out: So, GW having taken a look see at the above, what do you think is going to happen to the global RSS mean when the AMO goes negative??? Data: www.woodfortrees.org/
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 8, 2014 0:31:13 GMT
Well either 'near Nino' never went away or the naturals have begun turning positive...... or global temp records for the year are all lies! Though I really did believe that this time ( 2014 spring) would see the Nino build into a fully fledged Nino the resurgent Trades put it back on hold but temps across the regions never strayed too far from the threshold? I'd said earlier in the year that I was now expecting a 'double dip' Nino and it now appears that that reading of recent Enso behaviours was pretty good? If the naturals that have allowed the anomalous trades to pile up the west Pacific warm pool and push a run of Nina's are on the cusp of switching positive then we might also expect this nino not only to form but to intensify over late summer early spring ( as we have seen so many large KW's to push out in late Jan/early Feb over recent years bolstering the forecasts for Nino formation?) and then plough through summer without Trade wind dampening it? Should this prove to be the case then the failing trades will allow that fat pile of warm water in the west Pacific ( pushing up sea levels around the nations situated there) to also pulse back into the Nino regions over the rest of the year and into 2016. All in all once we lose the anomalous trades ( via the atmosphere synchronising or the Atlantic/Pacific equatorial basins reaching parity.... or both!) then we have nothing holding that warm pool in place any more and so gravity will play its part and we will inherit a lot of warmth as it spills east and warms the air above. As a footnote, should the IPO be turning back to its 'surface warming phase' then the positive PDO will also remain. Both of these will also play there part in keeping atmospheric temps on the up and up. Graywolf, As I am the forecaster who called the last ENSO of 2009-2011, I continue to state that there is no such thing as ENSO neutral and again, I forecasted that there would be no 'Super El Niño' in 2014 and there hasn't. All those who claimed that a 'super El Niño' was a certainty, including NOAA and NWS, as well as multiple climate centers and forecasters were wrong. They all busted and at present are backtracking, but trying to not let people know just how wrong they were. This is why they will never forecast an ENSO in advance as I have proven I can do, until they learn to accept the physical laws that govern ENSO, which is climate change in action. Again, ENSO is not an internally driven or chaotic phenomenon. It is a solar-magnetically driven climate event that begins with the upper stratospheric U-flow/QBO and results in impact on the N/S annular modes. The ENSO cycle is a proven thermal/kinetic energy exchange of the Earth's oceans. ENSO is externally forced by the Sun and is a circulatory response to conserve angular momentum that is relative to the planetary surface in rotation and then is processed through Earth's highly variable and fluid atmosphere. The forcing is accomplished by changes in the meridional flux through the NAM/SAM and that means planetary wave action. Stationary planetary waves are excited in the midlatitudes, then propagate equatorward and are absorbed in the subtropics. The impacts these waves have on the tropical climate has yet to be fully unraveled by conventional climate science. Previous work has shown that interannual variability of zonal-mean stationary eddy stress is well correlated with interannual variability in Hadley cell strength. A separate line of research has shown that changes in midlatitude planetary waves local to the Pacific strongly affect ENSO variability. These two phenomena are closely connected. Interannual variability of wave activity flux impinging on the subtropical central Pacific affects the local Hadley cell. The associated changes in subtropical subsidence affect the surface pressure field and wind stresses, which in turn affect ENSO. As a result, a winter with an anomalously weak Hadley cell tends to be followed a year later by an El Niño event. Now, As we approach 2015, we will see solar cycle #24 maximum take place, which will affect the oceans, and it will be a warmer-than-average year, but also dryer too. But this will not be an ENSO. The next ENSO will be of the colder phase, a major La Nina, and will take place during the winter of 2021-2022. There will be strong signs in 2019 and 2020 that another climate event is on tap and that will be the coming of La Nina. As for the 'super El Niño,' it did not materialize, as I forecasted it would not.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 9, 2014 2:37:59 GMT
No doubt some intellectual dissonance in the lack of clarification of whether his prediction is for an upcoming pair of El Ninos or if he remains in denial that the recent El Nino he predicted did not materialize. At any rate the short term outlook portions of the NOAA climate model which is usually fairly accurate is reacting to observations and predicting the typical 3 month index shift in direction that is now underway (ENSO 3.4 dropped .2 a degree in the past week). The usual pattern is for these kelvin wave phases to last about 3 months so the NOAA model now is predicting below threshold values for JFM, FMA, and MAM as a result of the zone entering the Kelvin Wave upwelling phase, with the latest model runs predicting even lower results. Add to that the consensus IRI/CPC probability chart which tends to be dated and overly warm has predicted the long term outlook for El Nino falling below 50% after MJJ. That was the expected cold wave that starts about 6 months from now to supposedly take us down from the El Nino they predicted. Every day it looks more and more like Astromet aced NOAA yet again and in particular the consortium of warmist, grant-driven Universities that has controlled the NOAA podium over the past several years. This is an interesting news item from 2009 as the Columbia University's IRI/CPC brought gigolo Rajendra K. Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in as the chairman of its board of directors amid a self aggrandizing celebration for predicting a series of El Ninos during a time of El Nino dominance. (of course they had just messed up on the 2008 La Nina but when in the midst of circle jerk frenzy they hardly noticed that the climate was changing yet again). Current El Nino conditions need to hold and not follow the path of the NOAA models to avoid a huge extension of what is already an unprecendented hiatus from El Nino. The record as I recall was broken when JAS failed to make the threshold for an El Nino cycle despite extraordinary ocean conditions that would typically support not just an el Nino but a super el Nino. But the climate failed to respond and feed into it. iri.columbia.edu/news/ipcc-chief-rajendra-pachauri-new-iri-board-chairman/
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 9, 2014 17:17:14 GMT
One of the most interesting phenomena's playing out currently is a vigorous denial of the pause by many in the warmest camp.
Her in NZ there was a solid denial of the pause in various institutions, it according to them, simply does not exist. Is there a split in the teams.
The pause is a frustration clearly and what is also interesting is that if it passes another two years its 50% of a standard career of an academic. That means that half the world will not have witnessed any warming in their career, the alarmists will at some point be seen to have no cloths.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Dec 10, 2014 7:04:28 GMT
Its a bit hard to deny it when the chart is staring you in the face...
The unadjusted ones of course.
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 10, 2014 8:37:34 GMT
And that is the rub!
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 11, 2014 1:17:36 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Dec 26, 2014 19:57:35 GMT
Sub surface anom now tracking at a record breaking 7c above average and about a week from surfacing? We also have the spectre of a strong cyclone, near the equator, forming next week? This will give one hell of a WWB to the KW as it begins to surface! The BOM are now starting to put out data showing the coupling of atmosphere and ocean has begun so I'm expecting a very rapid descent into Nino conditions through April? I think there must be a lot of pots of crow stew on the back burner around here? Maybe we could quote mine some of the best denials of the upcoming Nino event ( against all the evidence we have been seeing since before Jan) once we see it burst into life over the coming weeks? Back to that 7c anom. That's a bigger anom than we saw before the 97' Super and that Nino was given a boost into life by a low lat. Cyclone in April. See any parallels? I still can't help but think that the spectre of a 97'esque 0.8c surge in global temps is something a number of posters on here are actively fearing? A Super Nino will impact both this ,and next, years global temps and , should we use the misleaders trick of linking an anomalous low temp year in the noughties to the peak of the Nino Surge then we'll see one hell of an increase in global temps over that period? ( not that any serious person would stoop so low?) Was this a case of "crying wolf" ?
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Dec 27, 2014 14:59:33 GMT
The thing that bothers me most about Graywolf is not his failure to acknowledge his constant train of blown predictions. (They are easy to see if you read his comment history). No, it is that he believes AGW will be catastrophic for humankind, yet his apocalyptic predictions are made in a voice that can only be described as gleeful. Perhaps he's just your run of the mill misanthrope, but his tone just grates. Sorry for the ad-hom, but I just had to get that off my chest.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2014 16:29:00 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2014 16:31:09 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2014 16:46:40 GMT
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