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Post by douglavers on Jan 28, 2009 1:29:31 GMT
Here in sunny Melbourne we are suffering a sort of negative cold: forecast today 41C, tomorrow 43C, then two 40s in a row. Pity the tennis players.
I distinctly remember someone saying that the 1km AMSU global satellite warming comparison rise over last year would have dissipated by the end of January. It is now 1,14 degF - dissipation seems pretty unlikely.
I still think there is something very strange about these numbers.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 28, 2009 2:21:11 GMT
And what a beat up they are doing about the Melbourne Heat wave that hasn't happened yet. They are forecasting a 1 in 100 year heatwave.
So far, the mean mins are 2C lower than average in the SE. (0.6C lower in the CBD)
The first day of the heat wave was 36 not 38. Today is supposed to be 41, I'll forecast 39! (There are more clouds around, and I think their old models predict about 2C above the current cooling mechanism.)
It will not be the heat wave forecast, but the publicity has fulfilled the "its global warming woo hoo" press release of the week. People will remember the big forecast, and the lower actual temps will not be remembered. Not that it is NOT hot in the day - but the night temperatures are way down, the exact opposite of the greenhouse effect.
I'll check historic data when the heatwave is finished, to see how it really rates against the rather frequent heat waves over the past 100 years or so.
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Post by Acolyte on Jan 28, 2009 2:34:49 GMT
And everyone is forgetting that, for our 1st 40+º day, IT'S THE END OF JANUARY!!! There was one hot one a couple of weeks back that showed on BoM as 38.5 then a couple of days later jumped to 40.5 - no idea why. BoM don't seem to tell us why they adjust things after the fact.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 28, 2009 2:59:13 GMT
It was announcing this as a record from the forecast rather that actuality that tells me they are desperate for some warming news. Most people will not notice how cold the nights have been.
It is warm, but it doesn't feel as hot as the last two years - maybe I've got used to Melbourne summers after Idyllic Kiwiland.
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Post by crakar24 on Jan 28, 2009 4:14:39 GMT
And what a beat up they are doing about the Melbourne Heat wave that hasn't happened yet. They are forecasting a 1 in 100 year heatwave. So far, the mean mins are 2C lower than average in the SE. (0.6C lower in the CBD) The first day of the heat wave was 36 not 38. Today is supposed to be 41, I'll forecast 39! (There are more clouds around, and I think their old models predict about 2C above the current cooling mechanism.) It will not be the heat wave forecast, but the publicity has fulfilled the "its global warming woo hoo" press release of the week. People will remember the big forecast, and the lower actual temps will not be remembered. Not that it is NOT hot in the day - but the night temperatures are way down, the exact opposite of the greenhouse effect.I'll check historic data when the heatwave is finished, to see how it really rates against the rather frequent heat waves over the past 100 years or so. Kiwi, Adelaide is generally hotter than Melbourne. Yesterday it was 43c today just as hot if not hotter and tomorrow is forecast the same followed by a couple of high 30c days. As per IPCC mandate the local news drags out this old fart from the Met office to reassure the viewers that this is all caused by GW. The old fart said this was a 1 in 100 year event which makes sense because the record for consecutive days above 40c was set in 1908. Of course this tidbit of info was not metioned on the TV. Just out of interest you seem to be a bit of a stats man, can you tell me why most cold records in NH seem to date back to 1993/4 or back the late 70's (77-78), i only ask because 93/94 and 77/78 seem to pop up quite a lot in regards to records and it just so happens that these 2 periods of time is when SA got the most rainfall in a 12 month period. Coincedence?
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 28, 2009 7:41:52 GMT
I was wrong (about the max- was 43) but right about the minimums going the wrong way for CO2 GH warming.
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Post by Acolyte on Jan 28, 2009 11:30:14 GMT
Well, you see when they say 'highest in 100 years,' or '100 year record' most people go 'Wow! That's effing high!' whereas we sceptical types go 'so it was hotter 100 years ago?' or 'they set the record back then?' & wonder why they are trying to connect a current scenario with the high temps. Most people have been very carefully trained in school towards 2 purposes - to listen carefully to authority (Children, Look at me! {for aussies... Kimee, look at me, look at me... }) and to be really stupid.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 10, 2009 20:14:00 GMT
Victoria in EXTENDED COLD FREEZE - 6C below normal. (Temps are from a fringe Melbourne station unlikely to suffer the UHI effect :Scoresby)
No, you wont see such headlines
Not after the recent heatwave, which received huge publicity (fires caused by madness - both of the Greens by promoting fire risk policies, and the arsonists who set most of the fires)
But the reality is that we have had 2 day max temps in a row 6C below the mean for Feb. If this trend continues for the rest of the month, and it well might, we may end up with a heat wave month well below the monthly mean!
Day Max: Saturday (fire day) 46.1C Mon: 20.7 (25C drop in 24 hours) Tues: 20.8
Normal Mean Max: 26.8
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Post by twawki on Feb 11, 2009 22:06:48 GMT
Same here in Sydney Kiwi
We get the headlines Victorian bushfires caused by global warming
but you dont see record Australian cold caused by global cooling
Forecasts for the next few days here - temps 13 -20 - and its the middle of summer, it feels like the middle of winter.
Likewise this is about 6s c below average for Sydney maximums in February
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Post by ron on Feb 11, 2009 23:23:51 GMT
Without seeming insensitive....
I wonder if/how the surface temperature stations' data will be adjusted for the effects of bushfires.
They will probably be "taken offline" while the cold is in place.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 12, 2009 10:03:17 GMT
Cold wave continues in Melbourne:
At Scoresby we had a whole 90 minutes over 16C - actually got to nearly 18 today - but apart from that brief burst of "warmth" been very cool.
We've now had 5 days in a row with the Max temp more then 6C below the 1971-2000 mean for this month.
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Post by twawki on Feb 12, 2009 23:21:02 GMT
Where did Sydney's summer go? Brett Dutschke, Thursday February 12, 2009 - 20:34 EDT
About one week after western suburbs endured its hottest four-day heatwave in 37 years; Sydney is likely to be heading for it coolest February period in more than 50 years.
The city is in the middle of at least a week where the temperature stays below 25 degrees. The likely number of days is nine, with next Wednesday being the first day warmer than 25 since last Sunday.
This will make it the longest February stretch below 25 degrees since the 1950s.
Sydney also had nine days in-a-row below 25 in February 1953 and eight in 1996. The last time there was a longer stretch was in 1950 when there were 13.
The extraordinary turnaround from last week's heat is a due to plenty of cloud and showers being blown in by persistent onshore southeasterly winds.
When will the summer warmth return? The middle of next week as winds turn warmer northeasterly, but it will only be brief, just a few days.
The city is likely to reach the high 20s, possibly the low 30s, but a cooler change late next week will put an end to that warmth. Western suburbs will hit the low-to-mid 30s before the change.
Frequent cooler changes for the rest of the month will the chances small of a prolonged heatwave.
- Weatherzone
© Weatherzone 2009
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 13, 2009 0:25:19 GMT
Went for a tramp in the bush 7am-8am, and wore thick wool all the time & didn't raise a sweat.
My place: 8.5C min (greenhouse) this morning, 15C inside. Scoresby 9.9C min this morning.
Monthly means dropping fast as month progresses, tho' with the heat wave first week of Feb, the mean is still a little more than the long term means.
A great blessing as the cooler weather assists the Victorian fire fight. All chemical reactions double with a 10C rise in temperature (as a rule of thumb) so cooler air massively reduces fire speed & intensity, lowering ignition points (and makes conditions a little more comfortable for the fire crews. It now appears close to 2000 homes destroyed and 7000 people displaced.
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Post by twawki on Feb 24, 2009 12:56:58 GMT
A new record for the coldest day in Tasmania during January was set at Mount Wellington on the 16th, when the temperature did not rise above two degrees.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 28, 2009 22:23:19 GMT
Remember when looking at CO2 induced Global warming, the IPCC states that night time minimums will be warmer, with few frosts and cold periods. (The greenhouse effect is more evident at night.) So: Scoresby: Data source www.bom.gov.au station: 086104 Feb Mean Minimum 1971-2000: 14.2, Mean Max: 26.8 Feb 2008 Mean Minimum: 12.8, Mean Max 24.7 Feb 2009 Mean Minimum:13.9 (In spite of reportedly "worst" heat wave ever.) Mean Max: 28.0 Up 1.2C due to heat wave. So the COLD TREND at night continues - in contradiction to the Green House predictions. Hot desert wind heat waves are more common during solar minimum due to monsoonal & other effects unrelated to the GHE.
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