Looking like a good chance of frost/freeze for middle to late next week for much of the upper Midwest according to some model runs. Hopefully the models are wrong...think most farmers could still use a couple more weeks of frost free weather.
Most farmers need a month of frost free weather.
Yes, they do Sigurdur, but cooler weather is on the way, especially for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
I figure with the signals I am seeing that two-thirds of the nation will experience below-average temperatures due to the increased trending to global cooling.
Below is a map of what are considered to be normal first frosts & freezes:
Next week, tens of millions of people are going to feel the frosty mornings as colder air sweeps back into the United States.
We have a chilly autumn and another cold, but fast winter on the way.
Next week there is a significant cooldown arriving for much of the U.S., east of the Rocky Mountains late next week.
Below-average temperatures are going to sweep in behind a strong cold front.
The colder temperatures behind the cold front will first be felt in the Northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will fall as much as 30 degrees fahrenheit below average temps, in some spots.
Day high temperatures will also struggle to rise above the 40s and 50s in the Northern and Central Plains, as well as in parts of the Midwest by late week into the weekend.
Minneapolis will see the thermometer jump into the 50s, but their average high temperature for this time of year is in the mid- 70s.
The below-average temperatures will then advance southward and then eastward into the Mid-Atlantic as the second week of September 2014 goes on.
Highs may climb only into the 70s for parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi valleys heading into next weekend, bringing a welcome break from the heat and humidity.
Memphis will go from highs in the 90s at the start of the week to highs in the 70s late in the week.
There will even be some relief in the Southern Plains, where high temperatures will go from the upper 90s to the 80s, and it will be less humid too.
It is also more than possible that by late next week many locations in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains could see their first frosts of the season - much earlier than normal.
And there are plenty of departures from average temperatures for this time of year.
I figure that it will range to about 2 to 3 weeks early for temperatures to drop to 32 degrees or below in Billings, Montana (the average date is Oct. 3), Bismarck, North Dakota (average date is Sept. 21) and Rapid City, South Dakota where the average date is September.
It is also more than possible that we will see some wet snow mix with rain in the higher elevations of Montana, Wyoming and the Black Hills of South Dakota late next week.
I continue to remind all of my climate forecast years ago when I said that the transition from solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling would see extremes of weather and temperatures. That is exactly what has been happening and it continued right into solar year 2014.
Meanwhile, the drought in California that I forecasted would be a multi-year drought has seen the last three years for California losing more than a year's worth of precipitation. The drought situation in California is going from bad to worse, as predicted.
And those false forecasts for the almighty 'super El Niño' bringing rain to a drought-stricken California - with its fallow fields, depleted streams and parched lawns - were further dashed last week when the National Weather Service, in its monthly El Niño report, again downgraded the chances of El Niño occurring in the fall or winter. According to NWS and NOAA those odds were 80 percent in May, and since have been downgraded to somewhere between 60 and 65 percent this week.
The super El Niño did not happen, as I forecasted, because the ENSO cycle is a decadal cycle and does not appear year after year as measured by NOAA and NWS.
I said that the surface waters in the equatorial Pacific would not sustain the high temperatures observed in the spring because that is common with the vernal equinox.
The same underwater swell that brought heat to the surface, known as a Kelvin Wave, had a stronger counter-effect than normal, and, as I said it would, it brought in more cold water back to the surface.
We are witnessing a major, and historic transition from global warming to global cooling, and the cooling will become more pronounced and abrupt the closer we get to the official start of global cooling, which I have calculated and forecasted to begin in mid-December 2017.