Sigurdur,
For years I have been warning of the arrival of global cooling, and, also it is not physically impossible for it to cool rapidly. For one, the cooling has already begun. Moreover, it can, and does get colder faster than it takes to warm things up. believe me when I tell you that by the 2030s, which is not that far away, it will be colder than you can expect.
Where I live has the prestige of having a record of temp swings. 184 degrees F. I understand variable weather. (Glenn stop reading or you will never come back). World wide tho, a 3-5C drop would take a tremendous change in ocean currents. Water holds a lot of heat, and the oceans have not started to cool at this time. Not going to argue specifics Astromet as I think the trend you forecast is the correct trend. The AMO is going to be in tune with the PDO affirming a cooling bias.
Regarding ocean currents Sigurdur,
The important thing are the Thermohaline ocean currents. I am an expert on these.
The Thermohaline Circulation is a simply a world scale ocean circulation driven by the activity of the Sun. This is where on Earth we have an equator-to-pole surface density differences of our world's seawater. So, the equator-to-pole density contrast is controlled by ocean temperature which is thermal and its salinity, or haline variations.
The direct effect of the Earth's thermohaline circulation is a redistribution of Earth's thermal energy - its climate energy.
The ocean's thermohaline circulation can become unstable and has been a reason for abrupt climate change on all the Earth's climate timescales featuring over many decades.
Still, even today, in conventional climate science, the key aspects of changes in the ocean's thermohaline circulation and its changes are badly understood.
Now basically, the world's thermohaline circulation is made up of cooling-induced deep convection and the sinking of it at high latitudes.
There is also upwelling at lower latitudes along with horizontal currents feeding vertical flows.
And contrary to conventional climate science that presumes 'man-made global warming,' and the cessation of the laws of physics which I state are very much still in effect, the convection and sinking of thermohaline circulation are not the same or are they co-located.
That is due to the fact that it is ruled by astronomic forces, mainly the Sun. So, when rotational effects are strong, the flow will tend to a section of maximum surface density (convection) but not into it.
For instance, you will find that in the North Atlantic where we find that most of the deep sinking occurs thermohaline circulation is the reason for unusually powerful heat that is transported northward.
Then altogether, with the upgradient at the equator, the heat then heads to the South Atlantic.
That is where populations in western Europe get their relative mild climate from. But that is going to change under the climate regime of global cooling. Changes in thermohaline circulation can and does help to begin ice ages. It has happened before.
For instance, during the Sporer, Dalton and Maunder Minimums the alteration of the Gulf Stream to a southern flow and course along with penetration of Arctic water southward down to Portugal had helped to usher Little Ice Age climate conditions in the Arctic, the North Atlantic and northwest Europe.
From my calculations, we are going to see a major change in thermohaline circulation current flows, which is caused by the activity of the Sun where the thermal-kinetic equilibrium of the Earth's oceans are forced. Only the Sun can do that, and does it very well indeed.
Thermohaline current changes is connected to what will amount to major, rapid and abrupt climate change that just isn't dealt with very good at all in climate science, but that doesn't surprise me, because to understand it clearly, one must practice astronomic forecasting to be able to synthesize all of the Sun's condition, and activity along with the modulations of the planets into a cohesive climate forecast for the Earth.
What I do is to closely monitor and forecast cyclic changes in the Sun while at the same time I calculate the planetary motion of the planets in our solar system which exert angular aspect and gravitational forces on the center of the Sun's dynamic mass.
All of this comes down to what I call 'tidal motion climate,' that is, where the multiple interaction of the angles and motions of the planets on the Sun's own motion causes perturbations on the Sun's angular momentum around its center of mass.
From this, I can then forecast climate conditions on Earth, and as well as interplanetary climate conditions on the other planets of our solar system.
Anyway, what many in conventional science are trying to do in late 2014 is to press the idiotic line that 'man-made global warming' can cause global cooling.
The reason for this stupidity is that they are unable to explain the now 18-year pause in global warming, and with the obvious trending to global cooling now becoming ever more apparent, they are trying to slip away without responsibility for all their bullshit over 'man-made global warming' since the 1990s.
They've been trying to cover their asses by slipping in the word "cooling" now in their websites and papers (just in case) but they still continue to state that global warming causes global cooling, which is of course, ridiculous.
It won't work, but that is the kind of idle time those careerist ideologues have on their hands (rather than actually forecasting weather and climate events that do happen in the real world.)
Such is the madness of these times, but it will not not halt for one nanosecond the coming of the Sun's Grand Minimum and the arrival of global cooling.
We are entering a new era of climate change, an ice age for sure, and it will be an abrupt one too because just as the next decade gets going we will already been primed for the next ENSO (La Nina) as ocean temperatures will cool even further (and not rebound) as the climate change to global cooling gets going even stronger throughout the 2020s and into the 2030s and 2040s.