|
Post by sigurdur on Apr 23, 2015 12:19:00 GMT
From Unisys SST temps, looks like an El Nino, but the SOI continues to demonstrate that the atmosphere is not hooking up again. Winds are a bit light in the East but there is no sign of a switch to westerlies Nope, and if the don't soon, 2015 will go down without a classic El Nino again.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Apr 28, 2015 6:29:46 GMT
Oh oh! 16 days ago: The NOAA ENSO forecast model is beginning to show a near horizon forecast break (especially common around the spring predictability barrier). What this means is uncertain. It could be a small blip or it could be a complete forecast collapse. This break occurs in a model seam as the model shifts from the short term model to the long term model. The long term model is dismal at predicting short term phenomena even though we know these Kelvin waves are going to create variation. The short term model is fairly highly skilled while the long term model lacks any real predictive power with it dropping to zero during this time of the year (when all ENSO events form meaning the long term model only has some skill when summer is here and what the ENSO conditions will be for the year are already well underway. Today:
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Apr 28, 2015 16:28:48 GMT
I just think the forecasting is rubbish, every time I see these the future has much higher values yet we never seem to get there???
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2015 18:14:06 GMT
I just think the forecasting is rubbish, every time I see these the future has much higher values yet we never seem to get there??? The forecasters are still stuck on a warming PDO. In about 10-15 years their skill may be better unless they have switched to a cold PDO.
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Apr 28, 2015 18:32:35 GMT
I just think the forecasting is rubbish, every time I see these the future has much higher values yet we never seem to get there??? The forecasters are still stuck on a warming PDO. In about 10-15 years their skill may be better unless they have switched to a cold PDO. I think they should stick with what their doing now, at least they'll be right one day. ...If they keep changing the forecast they may never be!
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Apr 28, 2015 21:43:24 GMT
Yep! A broken clock is right two times a day, unless of course its a military clock then its right only once a day.
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on May 4, 2015 10:32:27 GMT
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gifAs we exit the spring predictability barrier the Nino forecast go for stronger and stronger Nino conditions! With the current EKW now surfacing temps in the east are shooting up. And now, on top of that, we have a WWB near across the whole of the regions? if the trades fail over july/Aug this time then we will be in for a helluva ride with 97/98's nino's crown up for grabs. More worrying is the way the KW's move up the coast to reinforce 'the blob' keeping PDO firmly negative and so increasing the Nino likelihood. Even worse is the eventual destination of these warm water pulses ( Arctic basin via Bering). With 2017 now looming large ( earliest we can expect a return of the 'perfect melt storm') any repeat of the 2014/15 winter over Bering/Okhotsk will leave the ice extent at low levels as the 'perfect melt storm' hit home. Meanwhile I have to wonder at the state of the IPO? We know PDO flipped positive but are the faltering trades a hint of the same occurring to the IPO? I seems that we will find out if the heat went into the oceans these past years as lower wind speeds keep the warming at the surface ( and so can interact with the air above) instead of being subducted by choppy wind driven waves ( placing cooler water at the surface and so chilling the air above). Never mind a 'Nino Spike' in global temps! what of the years of leeching out of stored heat across the basin? I guess we could have waited for a more conducive moment for China to begin scrubbing its particulates out of the atmosphere (and so reducing dimming over the Pacific)?
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on May 4, 2015 13:07:17 GMT
As I sit here waiting for a.mechanic I read your post graywolf. How many times does it take for a.failed forecast to show before you question the forecast? One of these times it is going to be correct?
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on May 4, 2015 14:51:30 GMT
One thing we know for sure is that at some point there will be an El Nino.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on May 4, 2015 18:43:58 GMT
We will need to see where this leads but over the past couple of weeks the entire NE Pacific has been cooling. Not sure what KW water moving north Graywolf is talking about, must be subsurface. Also we are seeing some visible cooling in ENSO3.4 north of the equator and some warming in ENSO3.4 south of the equator resulting in little change to the Nino index.
Upper ocean anomalies in ENSO 3.4 are diminishing for the past 2 weeks even as westerlies across the region have increased.
Meanwhile the mid-range models, largely unaffected by the spring predictability barrier are indecisive as to the evolution over the coming month.
While Graywolf is eagerly spanking the monkey over Jul,Aug wind anomalies we have to recognize that accuracy for the longer term models remains at zero for another month at which point some skill gradually begins to become apparent.
Since it has been a record El Nino hiatus looking at the historic record one can only look at the 2nd and 3rd longest hiatuses to see what happened.
The 2nd and 3rd longest hiatuses were tied at 3 seasons shorter than the recent hiatus. One began early in 1959 and the other in early 1978. The 1959 hiatus was followed by an El Nino that lasted 9 months and peaked at a 1.4 anomaly. The 1978 hiatus was followed by an El Nino that lasted 14 months and peaked at 2.2. However, neither of those El Ninos got off to the weak bumpy start this one is off to. Both the previous record hiatus endings ascendeded consistently to their peaks.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on May 5, 2015 2:44:50 GMT
A Kelvin Wave is sub surface.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on May 5, 2015 17:09:43 GMT
A Kelvin Wave is sub surface. Yes they are. But they are driven by the earth's coriolis force to a topographic boundary like a western coastline. Here they are deflected equatorward, south in the northern hemisphere and north in the southern hemisphere. Graywolf has a kelvin wave running poleward in the northern hemisphere. Whatever it is he is talking about, and it would have to be subsurface because of visible surface cooling, its not a Kelvin Wave under any definition I have heard of. We do see warming spread northward as a result of growing El Ninos. We see this as a surface effect. Its called the Eckman Transport and the Eckman layer is the upper 30 to 50 meters of the ocean. Since satellite temperature services are showing cooling in the north eastern Pacific ocean over the past couple of weeks Graywolf's theory seems a bit cockamamie and his definition of a Kelvin Wave seems to none I have ever heard of. Perhaps he can explain. As I see it there was no prediction for this cooling and models have no skill saying what comes next. As often as not the cooling continues either deep into the neutral zone or even maybe the La Nina zone or it stops and warming returns. Considering all I am slightly favoring Astromet as at least his was developed on conventional wisdom sometime before science got into the market with a sales program.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on May 5, 2015 18:53:30 GMT
I think that what we are seeing is what happens when models trained during a warm PDO and warm AMO are used when both oscillations are going cold. They have been trained against the wrong conditions.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on May 6, 2015 1:03:19 GMT
I think that what we are seeing is what happens when models trained during a warm PDO and warm AMO are used when both oscillations are going cold. They have been trained against the wrong conditions. Yes. Columbia University chairs NOAA's science panel on ENSO and that was the home of Dr. James (El Nino is the new normal) Hansen. So its probably a lot worse than we thought from the data bias alone.
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on May 6, 2015 13:40:17 GMT
|
|