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Post by nonentropic on Feb 20, 2016 0:00:31 GMT
not sure what you mean Ratty.
But your back, sick of the Beach!!?
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Post by Ratty on Feb 21, 2016 0:04:37 GMT
not sure what you mean Ratty. But your back, sick of the Beach!!? You'll work it out, Nonentropic.
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Post by fredzl4dh on Feb 27, 2016 9:14:00 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2016 16:22:57 GMT
Every place you look, at major ag areas, output is on a steep increase. Those pesky floods/droughts are no more severe than normal. I know the AGW folks want you to understand that we are just a bushel away from starving. The reality is, we are just a bushel away from going broke. (Farmers)
The world's masses have never had it so good, in regards to plentiful inexpensive food.
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Post by fly guy on Feb 28, 2016 3:31:29 GMT
Every place you look, at major ag areas, output is on a steep increase. Those pesky floods/droughts are no more severe than normal. I know the AGW folks want you to understand that we are just a bushel away from starving. The reality is, we are just a bushel away from going broke. (Farmers) The world's masses have never had it so good, in regards to plentiful inexpensive food. sigurdur: couldn't agree with you more, we farmers have shown the ability to raise bountiful crops and maintain ample carryout in wheat, corn and soybeans, just to name a few commodities. Not to mention our ability to accomplish this in the face of minuscule challenges like the most recent drought of 2012 and the floods in the early 90's. All at a time when we built this huge beast that consumes 5 1/2 billion bushel a year of corn. Now we are at a time, four short years after the drought, with an ample carryout of 1.8 billion bushel with all bellies full. Ethanol, swine, chicken, turkeys and beef just to mention a view consumers of corn and soybean meal are all content in the face of $30 crude oil because we dropped corn to the end user back to the low $3.00 range. All the while production cost, in my world, are at $4.00 for corn and $10.50 for soybeans. (I don't know what wheat growers need to cover their costs) Take a look at this video. The way I see it, ample supplies could become a topic from the past, like Theodore has been warning us. John Casey is supplying us with, I believe, an intriguing amount of scientific data to support Astromet's forecast. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ItmaEvX77Y
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 29, 2016 16:01:28 GMT
Fly Guy: Production expenses are very close to the numbers you cited for Soybeans and Corn. Wheat is approx $7.20/bushel.
I find it virtually impossible to produce a profitable P&L for 2016.
Yet, I am also not going to summer fallow all my acres as that would take any potential away in case some area has a large scale disaster.
This warming world is great for consumers, not so great for producers.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 29, 2016 17:22:14 GMT
Media matters makes an appeal to authority. Never mentions the points that Mr. Casey makes.
Gets back to the old saying "Where the Twain shall meet".
There is an anthropogenic signal in climate today. Is that signal the only item responsible for climate change? Nope, it isn't.
Will reducing CO2 emissions result in lowered sea levels? Nope, it won't. Should we ignore past paleo evidence that sea levels are presently low for an interglacial this long in the tooth? Nope. What that tells us is that sea levels will potentially rise to levels recorded in paleo data of previous interglacial periods.
Is the current short spurt of warming unprecedented? Nope again.
Is the current temperature unprecedented? Once again...nope.
The spin from those who are "supposed" to be smart/experts is on par with the spin of those who claim to be experts.
Both are full of hot air!!!!
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Post by fredzl4dh on Mar 3, 2016 8:19:17 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 4, 2016 14:20:05 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 8, 2016 13:51:02 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 8, 2016 14:38:20 GMT
Yep, that warming climate is SO BAD for Ag production. So bad............sheeeeeesh. The mountain of food only grows larger and larger!!!!! As a producer, we NEED a disaster somewhere!!!! www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do;jsessionid=1C6927D8A0EFE0D37CA1BA224AD183A9.agfreejvm1?symbolicName=/free/news/template1&product=/ag/news/topstories&vendorReference=0353b2fa-34a2-481b-912d-1cb46058ad3a&paneContentId=3030&paneParentId=0WORLD ENDING STOCKS The same sort of scenario is expected for world ending stocks. The average pre-report estimate pegged corn at 209.2 million metric tons, up from February's 208.8 mmt, due in part to slight increases in production for both Brazil and Argentina. However, the pre-report figure for Argentina of 27.2 mmt, as compared to February's WASDE figure of 27.0 mmt, remains in doubt. It's possible that late-summer weather there may have trimmed production slightly. World soybean production is expected to live by the motto, "Big crops get bigger" with increases expected for both Argentina and Brazil. The former's crop was projected at 59.0 mmt versus February's 58.5 mmt, while the latter's production could come in above the 100 mmt, or February's estimate. The expected increase in ending stocks of 0.6 mmt is almost a direct reflection of these production increases, meaning total world demand should come in near unchanged from February at 314.52 mmt.
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Post by fredzl4dh on Mar 13, 2016 9:25:17 GMT
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Post by fly guy on Mar 13, 2016 15:46:54 GMT
Yes, I can verify that those yields that the article is talking about are accurate. The problem is that approximately 80% of that crop is still owned by farmers. Even with those record yields, if the crop were priced at todays' prices, the farmers will be locking in significant losses. Our input costs for 2015's crop had to be committed to in late 2014, by inputs I mean; seed cost, fertilizer costs and land rent, etc.. The price we paid for those inputs was based on 2013 & 2014 ultra high commodity prices. As we purchased our inputs for 2015's crop we knew the futures market wasn't high enough to lock in a profit, so for the most part the farmer procrastinated on pricing and went through the growing season hoping something would go wrong with the weather (preferably for other growing regions to get us to profitable prices). I know, it seems like a stupid way to do business, but that's farming. With that said, you would think the average farmer would be situated with adequate capital reserves given the high prices we experienced in 2013 & 2014. But, you have to understand that 80% of the farmers didn't receive those prices. Prior to 2012's drought farmers were very strongly urged to lock in a large percentage of 2012 & 2013's and even some of 2014's crop prices by multiple farm economists and marketing gurus.
There is an old saying in farming; when it comes to marketing and production, every-time the pendulum swings, it swings too far. Another popular saying is; the cure for high prices is high prices.
This is where this site and Astromet's forecast come into play. I believe Astromet is right, the climate drives these huge economic swings. For the most part farmers are being directed by meteorologists that can't forecast!!!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2016 16:30:05 GMT
Fly Guy: You have hit the nail on the head. IF one had a great crop, and IF one had a crystal ball to capture the apex of the price rise, there "may" be a little bit of capital in reserve.
BUT, there was a lot of pent up demand for machinery. A combine costs $450K, a tractor $350K. And that is only TWO pieces of equipment. And those prices aren't even for the "big ones". And no matter how much one wishes, and patches, equipment does WEAR out and has to be replaced.
I don't know what 2016 will bring as far as production. Lots of forecasts for a drought, but that is a repeat of an annual forecast it seems. IN case there actually IS one, I bought a few 2016 Nov $11.00 calls for a nickel. I don't want to be left in the dust.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 19, 2016 12:55:05 GMT
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