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Post by missouriboy on Jan 17, 2019 19:20:46 GMT
Something that joe b has been saying, and i see where he is coming from. We have had 40 odd years of elevated solar busy pumping heat into our oceans. This will take a long time to dissipate. He downplays any idea of imminent mini ice age due to this. A slight drop from the new temp plateau post 2015 'nino' is the thought. Yes ... and he talks about the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Makes sense to me. But if the "heating" is turned down, then it would seem like merely a matter of time before ocean temperatures drop. Likely the longest/best ocean index we have is for the Atlantic ... and if we assume that there are no "thumbs" on the recent data ... then comparisons to past periods of Atlantic heat loss (our analogs if you will) may provide a possible preview ... and it is about all we have. The samples are minimal (two) ... the drop into the ~1900 Solar downturn and the drop into solar cycle 20. Solar flux might be more relevant, but I already had a graphic showing the Geomagnetic AP Index. In both our cases there appear to be time lags in the range of 8 years or so between the solar peaks and the point at which the AMO starts dropping. These drops can be steep if you believe the figures. The current peak seems to have held longer than the previous two, coincident with "the pause". We know the northern basin (north of 45 N) dropped in 2015-16, but the AMO is calculated for the whole basin north of the equator. Recent Climate4you chart (#2) shows current drop underway. Will it be significant? If the drop occurs over the same general time frame as previously, then 2025 or so may see Atlantic temperatures not seen since the 1970s? Most of us should live long enough to see if that plays out. If so, crank up the thermostat. If not, then back to the drawing boards. Just "smash" any thumbs you see on the data knobs.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 24, 2019 18:45:38 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jan 25, 2019 1:17:03 GMT
Meanwhile .... Adelaide now hottest capital city on record as temperatures soar throughout SAAdelaide has hit a sweltering 46.6 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record set in Melbourne a decade ago to officially become the hottest capital in the country. The temperature then climbed up to 46.6C, topping the previous capital city record of 46.4C set in Melbourne in 2009.Thankfully, it's cooler where I am, much closer to the Equator.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 25, 2019 1:39:45 GMT
Meanwhile .... Adelaide now hottest capital city on record as temperatures soar throughout SAAdelaide has hit a sweltering 46.6 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record set in Melbourne a decade ago to officially become the hottest capital in the country. The temperature then climbed up to 46.6C, topping the previous capital city record of 46.4C set in Melbourne in 2009.Thankfully, it's cooler where I am, much closer to the Equator. Must be the Trade Winds. Are they stiff enough to blow the sheets off the bed yet?
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Post by Ratty on Jan 25, 2019 5:28:09 GMT
Meanwhile .... Adelaide now hottest capital city on record as temperatures soar throughout SAAdelaide has hit a sweltering 46.6 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record set in Melbourne a decade ago to officially become the hottest capital in the country. The temperature then climbed up to 46.6C, topping the previous capital city record of 46.4C set in Melbourne in 2009.Thankfully, it's cooler where I am, much closer to the Equator. Must be the Trade Winds. Are they stiff enough to blow the sheets off the bed yet? I think it's the big yellow thing and our large heat sink in the middle of the country.
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 11, 2019 13:09:19 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Mar 11, 2019 14:27:42 GMT
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Post by IB DaMann on Mar 11, 2019 15:03:35 GMT
What is this chart supposed to be showing? Anyone? Yes, I can read the title; the question stands.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 12, 2019 2:59:14 GMT
I am NOT a forecaster! I admire those that do ... but I'm just a guy that's interested in climate. I read and I ponder. I concur with what you said, I am not even close to being a forecaster, I'm the guy who looks at the pictures in the forecasts. I am like my avatar's name, Buster Sidebury, the session drummer in the background keeping a beat while the real talent sings. Best album of the late 1980s. Roy's Last
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Post by Ratty on Mar 12, 2019 4:18:11 GMT
[ Snip ] I concur with what you said, I am not even close to being a forecaster, I'm the guy who looks at the pictures in the forecasts. I am like my avatar's name, Buster Sidebury, the session drummer in the background keeping a beat while the real talent sings. Don't sell yourself short, Buster. If you're a drummer AND can keep a beat, you're likely one of a kind.
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