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Post by acidohm on Mar 20, 2017 17:56:40 GMT
Anyhoo....that not what he said. ..
"climate variations from full glacial to full nonglacial, back to full glacial, and finally back to full nonglacial in time intervals measured in hundreds of years?"
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 21, 2017 0:28:06 GMT
Anyhoo....that not what he said. .. "climate variations from full glacial to full nonglacial, back to full glacial, and finally back to full nonglacial in time intervals measured in hundreds of years?" It was a direct cut and paste from his comment on WUWT Nevertheless, it is a lot faster than a thousand year long slow descent. Given that the proxies smear out rapid changes it is possible that the temperature changes were faster.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 21, 2017 13:06:56 GMT
If you want to see sudden climate response then alter snow/ice cover or remove sulphate/particulate pollution.
We are seeing both these impacts atm.
The fact that , post Nina, we are seeing temps that if they were to continue on trend will trash last years super Nino record year kind of highlight that we are seeing non ENSO impacts driving temps?
We have been seeing changes throughout this century but sadly negative naturals were able to limit their impacts. Now the naturals are again augmenting warming those changes are now showing up?
2014 was the first of these record years but it was not in full force.
2015's global record gave us more of an idea of what to expect and , sadly, we saw Nino in 2016 so another 'natural' added some on top of these 'rises' we had been seeing again.
So far 2017 is tracking so as to make it another record year overtaking the nino record. Should this come to pass I think we all better look at what we thought would occur to temps over the next decade? Should we pass 1.5c above pre-industrial science tells us we will lose the permafrost and Arctic Summer ice. Last Feb ( 2016) passed 1.5c but that was at peak Nino forcing. Should 2017 take 20216's record then we will be on our way to the 1.5c milestone!!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 21, 2017 14:28:33 GMT
2017 is tracking like a stone thrown in a lake GW.
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Post by acidohm on Mar 21, 2017 17:19:27 GMT
The temperature record is trash anyway, doctored, badly executed and unrealistic in capability.
All to get excited about 1°c or so..
Despite reports of plants in different parts of the world acting as if the opposite to the temp record is a possibility....
You live in the UK GW...did you not think it odd that despite temps running higher then average we had frosts from October and still my neighbour was scraping ice off his car this a.m.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 21, 2017 17:51:05 GMT
Well WMO report for 2016 is out and you'll not like what the global cabal of weather men have to say...... library.wmo.int/opac/doc_num.php?explnum_id=3414It will be odd no longer warning of what is about to occur and turning to reporting it instead?
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Post by acidohm on Mar 21, 2017 18:14:05 GMT
Nah....sorry GW, hurricanes were not unusual, there was a bad one, but there always will be.
I still fail to see much difference between ice extents of the arctic from now and '79
If russia was so warm why the heck has it had record snow cover??
I'm not sure Greenland is losing mass??
ANY temp graph that shows the '30s much cooler then today is propaganda
Generally still waiting for even the lower range of past predictions from organisations such as this to become reality.....time only proves them wrong. ..
I don't dislike the report....just a bit,well...meh
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Post by graywolf on Mar 22, 2017 11:05:50 GMT
Talking of Russia; siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0905-7000-underground-gas-bubbles-poised-to-explode-in-arctic/We knew this was coming and by the images I'd say we do not need another record warm summer over the region! As for snow cover? Are you a Senator? Siberia used to be part of the 'dry desert' that was the old Arctic. Once you begin to raise the relative humidity guess what you get? If at the same time the specific heat capacity of that atmosphere raises temps at ground level from minus 40 to minus 3 what will the precipitation fall as? In the countries that do get winter snow there is a saying " too cold to snow ". Why is that?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 22, 2017 11:47:15 GMT
I don't know GW. In ND the highest snow month is the coldest month. But it only gets to -30 to -40f .Maybe that isn't cold enough?
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Post by Ratty on Mar 22, 2017 12:12:27 GMT
I hear it's been snowing in Greenland and Antarctica. Not too cold?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 22, 2017 12:21:29 GMT
There was a heatwave. CO2 induced. H2O driven
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Post by graywolf on Mar 22, 2017 13:10:42 GMT
There is a new paper out looking at the increase in rainfall, by centuries end, across the Arctic Basin....... but then the past two winters have seen mid winter rain across the pack....... we seem to be getting ahead of ourselves.....
How much humidity can -40c air hold? Hmmmm.
H2O is the biggest importer of heat beyond 75N. We have watched temps lifted from minus 30 to near freezing as these winter storms have rolled into the basin from Barentsz/Kara. Look at this winters temp plot for Svalbard and marvel!
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Post by acidohm on Mar 22, 2017 17:23:39 GMT
IF Antarctica melted, sea levels would rise by how much (one heck of a lot! !) How much of the world's fresh water is held as ice down there (again....alot) How did it get there? What are the temps???
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Post by graywolf on Apr 30, 2017 12:31:03 GMT
Well Southern usa , first extreme dry to the point of drought in areas and now ground so saturated the slightest drop of rain leads to problems? Good job we are not see extreme rainfall totals tied to this global warming thingy isn't it?
But then the West coast has done similar seeing their drought status turned around over the last 12 months with a bit of rainfall.
I bumped this thread as i believe we are into a rapid period of change which will mean extreme conditions around the globe over the coming year. I am very concerned that even the most positive, ice retentive, melt season over the arctic will still see excessive areas of open water throughout the max solar period ( June through Aug ) and the year on year drop out of Asian particulate/sulphate solar blocking ( dimming) will continue seeing increased solar reaching the Pacific ( in its IPO positive phase so no longer burying heat but sitting it on the surface to be taken back up into the atmosphere).
The first quarter of the year has seen global temps surprisingly high and rising? 2016 saw a very hot start to the year ( peaking in Feb) and then a falling away into a near Nina by November. Should our current trend continue as we move toward summer then we will pass 2016 by Aug/Sept and see yet another record year for global temps. The question for many should this come to pass will be 'how???'
How does an ENSO Neutral year ( starting from a near Nina) pass the strongest Nino year on record?
That will be an interesting conversation indeed!
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 30, 2017 12:53:39 GMT
Ok. The rain in Ark/Missouri etc is a drop in the bucket compared to past events. California got of light if the past winter was the normal 150 year event.
Back to reality. The slight changes in observed temps are not extraordinary. The driver is the decline of clouds. Will that continue? I don't know as the trend seems to be flattening.
The very best climate metric is worldwide ag production. We can only hope someone, somewhere soon has a flippen disaster. There is so much food on earth it is causing orbital decay.
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