If you want to see sudden climate response then alter snow/ice cover or remove sulphate/particulate pollution.
We are seeing both these impacts atm.
The fact that , post Nina, we are seeing temps that if they were to continue on trend will trash last years super Nino record year kind of highlight that we are seeing non ENSO impacts driving temps?
We have been seeing changes throughout this century but sadly negative naturals were able to limit their impacts. Now the naturals are again augmenting warming those changes are now showing up?
2014 was the first of these record years but it was not in full force.
2015's global record gave us more of an idea of what to expect and , sadly, we saw Nino in 2016 so another 'natural' added some on top of these 'rises' we had been seeing again.
So far 2017 is tracking so as to make it another record year overtaking the nino record. Should this come to pass I think we all better look at what we thought would occur to temps over the next decade? Should we pass 1.5c above pre-industrial science tells us we will lose the permafrost and Arctic Summer ice. Last Feb ( 2016) passed 1.5c but that was at peak Nino forcing. Should 2017 take 20216's record then we will be on our way to the 1.5c milestone!!
We knew this was coming and by the images I'd say we do not need another record warm summer over the region!
As for snow cover? Are you a Senator? Siberia used to be part of the 'dry desert' that was the old Arctic. Once you begin to raise the relative humidity guess what you get? If at the same time the specific heat capacity of that atmosphere raises temps at ground level from minus 40 to minus 3 what will the precipitation fall as?
In the countries that do get winter snow there is a saying " too cold to snow ". Why is that?
There is a new paper out looking at the increase in rainfall, by centuries end, across the Arctic Basin....... but then the past two winters have seen mid winter rain across the pack....... we seem to be getting ahead of ourselves.....
How much humidity can -40c air hold? Hmmmm.
H2O is the biggest importer of heat beyond 75N. We have watched temps lifted from minus 30 to near freezing as these winter storms have rolled into the basin from Barentsz/Kara. Look at this winters temp plot for Svalbard and marvel!
Well Southern usa , first extreme dry to the point of drought in areas and now ground so saturated the slightest drop of rain leads to problems? Good job we are not see extreme rainfall totals tied to this global warming thingy isn't it?
But then the West coast has done similar seeing their drought status turned around over the last 12 months with a bit of rainfall.
I bumped this thread as i believe we are into a rapid period of change which will mean extreme conditions around the globe over the coming year. I am very concerned that even the most positive, ice retentive, melt season over the arctic will still see excessive areas of open water throughout the max solar period ( June through Aug ) and the year on year drop out of Asian particulate/sulphate solar blocking ( dimming) will continue seeing increased solar reaching the Pacific ( in its IPO positive phase so no longer burying heat but sitting it on the surface to be taken back up into the atmosphere).
The first quarter of the year has seen global temps surprisingly high and rising? 2016 saw a very hot start to the year ( peaking in Feb) and then a falling away into a near Nina by November. Should our current trend continue as we move toward summer then we will pass 2016 by Aug/Sept and see yet another record year for global temps. The question for many should this come to pass will be 'how???'
How does an ENSO Neutral year ( starting from a near Nina) pass the strongest Nino year on record?