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Post by douglavers on Jun 26, 2017 22:28:47 GMT
I always thought that without the Gulf Stream [aka North Atlantic Drift], Europe would be about 5 degC colder based on its latitude.
I am prepared to modify that slightly due to Westerlies off the Atlantic - say 3 degC.
If the speculation about Gulf Stream slowdown is correct, Europe should be about that much colder next winter. and proper winter will start a month or so sooner.
Pity the UK - 3 degC will expose the pitiable state of their power grid, and the paucity of house insulation.
Bit like OZ, except we are basically warmer.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 27, 2017 4:54:53 GMT
[ Snip ] It is where the cold water is coming from that is interesting. There is a similar but opposite sense effect in the Gulf of Mexico - the 'Loop Current' is actually cold but where it exits around South Florida it is warm - where did that warm come from? And yes I know its an anomaly but it is still a warm anomaly being fed by a cold anomaly. Promise you won't start the black body discussion again. but theres no blackbodys in the ocean??? Waddya mean??? Grrrr, your making me cross ratty!!!
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Post by acidohm on Jun 27, 2017 5:00:10 GMT
These SST maps are just the surface temperature and the key discussion is why is the cold water on the surface. If it due to lower salinity then a melt further north may be the cause, but if its actually cold below then there is much to consider. Its normal for there to be falling temperatures at depth but if you look at the El Nino or La Nina thermal profile in the Pacific its very different from normal and that concept is what is also possible in the Gulf Stream. This needs watching because a drop of 2C west of Europe could impact a lot of people just not sure what and how and is it just a fluctuation? Im sure on of missouriboys excellent argo maps, it was quite ckear that cold water was extending from depth in greater amounts the last couple of years.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 27, 2017 7:52:24 GMT
Promise you won't start the black body discussion again. but theres no blackbodys in the ocean??? Waddya mean??? Grrrr, your making me cross ratty!!! Where's Andrew? ;-)
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 27, 2017 9:16:07 GMT
These SST maps are just the surface temperature and the key discussion is why is the cold water on the surface. If it due to lower salinity then a melt further north may be the cause, but if its actually cold below then there is much to consider. Its normal for there to be falling temperatures at depth but if you look at the El Nino or La Nina thermal profile in the Pacific its very different from normal and that concept is what is also possible in the Gulf Stream. This needs watching because a drop of 2C west of Europe could impact a lot of people just not sure what and how and is it just a fluctuation? Im sure on of missouriboys excellent argo maps, it was quite ckear that cold water was extending from depth in greater amounts the last couple of years. Talking of Argo.... I notice that no-one has been. Are its results that inconvenient? Even in the WUWT spiel on why not to use Nullschool, no mention of Argo.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 27, 2017 9:42:20 GMT
but theres no blackbodys in the ocean??? Waddya mean??? Grrrr, your making me cross ratty!!! Where's Andrew? ;-) I did appreciate his input on scandinavian weather...
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 2, 2017 19:12:54 GMT
www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15875It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981–2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 28, 2018 14:07:31 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 28, 2018 14:25:34 GMT
The North Atlantic Ocean is a region of remarkable variability in surface temperatures on timescales of decades and longer. Much debate surrounds whether this variability is driven by the atmosphere or by ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream, moving heat around. In this study, we show that on timescales around 10 years, the atmosphere is the likely cause of Atlantic temperature variability but that this changes when multidecadal variability is considered. Changes ongoing in the Gulf Stream coincide with changes in the broader Atlantic—changes that imply a relatively cooler Atlantic in the coming decades.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 28, 2018 22:07:47 GMT
The index looks suspiciously similar to solar cycles.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 28, 2019 20:50:20 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 28, 2019 21:48:10 GMT
Sometimes when tossing a line you wait for the fish in a bar.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 28, 2019 23:16:21 GMT
Sometimes when tossing a line you wait for the fish in a bar. Your last hour has been surprisingly productive, MB.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 30, 2019 6:36:55 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 1, 2019 14:50:55 GMT
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