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Post by nautonnier on Sept 12, 2019 19:28:25 GMT
Not looking warm for the North Atlantic Drift to NW Europe and Dorian sucked huge amounts of energy from the Gulf Stream   |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2019 10:10:53 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 14, 2019 11:23:51 GMT
I am not sure I agree that the path of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift can affect the jet stream path.  The strength of the jets is linked to the temperature gradient between the equator and the pole. As we can see that the pole has not warmed  Weaker jets mean that Rossby Waves will form in the jet streams and they become meridional rather than strong latitudinal. We have seen evidence of a weaker Sun with lowered energy transfer to the Earth equator. Is there a common cause at play here with lower energy does the Gulf Stream with less energy flip from the North Atlantic Drift to instead move back equatorward as the Canaries Current?  |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 14, 2019 18:13:48 GMT
Good paper linked in here. Both Rapid and AMOC show trend declines.   Previous work with ARGO suggests a change in overturning (as measured by salinity) in NE Atlantic north of 45 N. Apparent down-welling from SC23 high period (2004-2005 - right images) at 15 W and 25 W long. appears gone or much reduced in the 2015-2016 period.  |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2019 19:05:46 GMT
I am not sure I agree that the path of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift can affect the jet stream path. The strength of the jets is linked to the temperature gradient between the equator and the pole. As we can see that the pole has not warmed Weaker jets mean that Rossby Waves will form in the jet streams and they become meridional rather than strong latitudinal. We have seen evidence of a weaker Sun with lowered energy transfer to the Earth equator. Is there a common cause at play here with lower energy does the Gulf Stream with less energy flip from the North Atlantic Drift to instead move back equatorward as the Canaries Current? Great synopsis, and thankyou for that. Id add the following: And suggest the multi-faceted nature of HLB/-NAO or -NAM/AO which are all essentially the same side of a card. What we're looking at is a re-construction of the norm, which is zonal flow. In average conditions, a factor may come into play which forces the zonal to meridionality, or at least the probability of this happening. Where you have a multitude of factors the probability goes up, tho certainty doesnt occur until say, 4 days (via model output) The big factors would be Siberian snow/ice development QBO ENSO Solar Activity Maybe SH SSW 8 months prior ssta However, yes, they are all interlinked...but can occur independantly. You can have all the above primed yet nothing unusual happens, there are no guarantees! Principles of chaos co-ordinate, in ways we will probably never fully understand the results. It just simply isnt possible? I can tell you this much however, i know of only 2 people who despite the huge SSW in NH last jan, stated it wouldnt become a BFTE type event for N Europe. One was me, as a daughter vortex dug in over greenland, i felt, with no valid education or experience, this would prevent downward propagation and therefore high pressure at this critical location. Secondly, a young irish lad who is well known for his crazy knowledge of stats, stated the ssta profile of N Atlantic wasnt right. Now its perhaps impossible to say if either of us was right in a clinical way, except that our different assumptions proved to be right. Was one of us right, neither, both?? Its a massive chaotic system. We can only really hypothesize. Certainly the 'experts' arent any better at this then knowledgeable (cough!) Citizens. However i wouldnt rule out that a vast cool, or warm area of ocean with their differing convective influences wouldnt swing a jetstream, or by whatever mechanism they would do so. The balance is very fine between what generates a cold N Europe winter pattern and what doesnt, it may be that the 5%, or whatever, influence ssta patterns give, makes the difference one way or another. |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2019 19:27:34 GMT
Also, ive struggled with the point
"Less energy from sun reduces energy to power jet"
For some time. As we know TSI varies only a little.
UV does vary by up to 10%, however, ive also struggled here to find a reliable mechanism to translate this to effects on energy in jet 🤷♂️
Meridionality too is not a gold standard in N Europe winter brutality, the position of it is critical, yes, however the existance of it can just as easily provide the mildest winter on record.
We need high pressure, in the right place, and....we need to reverse the zonal flow so depressions in the east track to the west. The system needs to break in a very dramatic way.
When conditions are zonal the chances are very low, as conditions become meridional, they increase.....but with no guarantee!
From what i've seen, the incidence of SSW involved retrogressing systems (which describes the east-west movement of systems) is likely high.
Each of the notable recorded winters occurred in this way.
Now, i have to admit, much of my 'research' involves lurking around the net, learning who knows wtf they are talking about and asking questions to the right people as they come to me. Ill attempt to find scientific papers, or ask scientists, however i usually find this a disappointing task and am met with less then i anticipate....
The only good explanation ive found (thx Mboy) regards the global electric circuit. If you go looking for an obscure region of science this is a pretty good one, however its the best stab yet I've found, it has good continuity from start to finish, no awkward gaps and is simple.
A good N Europen winter is like a deck of cards, to start they're all face down, about now you can start turning them over, but to get the drama, they must all be in order once turned, you can only the remaining turn half of the cards over 4 days before, once models give you certainty......and someone who really dislikes you shuffled them last week......
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2019 19:57:56 GMT
While im on the subject....tho i know it goes against the grain, N Atlantic sst dont entirely provide the temperate climate enjoyed by those areas upstream of its flow. The oceans warmth (tying in with above concept) also helps to shift the jet into a favourable position, north of N Europe.
Large continental masses are like cold weather tarts, slightest sniff of "polar vortex" and they roll over and welcome in.
Well, perhaps its not like that in US for example where the land mass often seems split, although the definition between the 2 will be where the jet flows.
This as Naut has described, gives impetus to the Jet, and usually for N Europe brings zonal conditions as the jet powers across the atlantic bringing depressions etc. One possible reason N Europe rarely gets cold at the same time a US.
I do distinctly remember the warm blob off US pacific coast aiding the trajectory and strength of the jet, one good example of sst effecting it....
So, is it not possible NA sst affect jet trajectory? Is not the typical route north of N Europe as important to temps here as the sst themselves??
Again, i don't suggest one effect is 100% over the other, theres a chaotic accumulation of effects. Our CET is a representation of the sum of all the effects that we do or do not know of.
Im very certain our understanding of the complexity and value of all known and unknown effects is small.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 14, 2019 20:55:42 GMT
While im on the subject....tho i know it goes against the grain, N Atlantic sst dont entirely provide the temperate climate enjoyed by those areas upstream of its flow. The oceans warmth (tying in with above concept) also helps to shift the jet into a favourable position, north of N Europe. Large continental masses are like cold weather tarts, slightest sniff of "polar vortex" and they roll over and welcome in. Well, perhaps its not like that in US for example where the land mass often seems split, although the definition between the 2 will be where the jet flows. This as Naut has described, gives impetus to the Jet, and usually for N Europe brings zonal conditions as the jet powers across the atlantic bringing depressions etc. One possible reason N Europe rarely gets cold at the same time a US. I do distinctly remember the warm blob off US pacific coast aiding the trajectory and strength of the jet, one good example of sst effecting it.... So, is it not possible NA sst affect jet trajectory? Is not the typical route north of N Europe as important to temps here as the sst themselves?? Again, i don't suggest one effect is 100% over the other, theres a chaotic accumulation of effects. Our CET is a representation of the sum of all the effects that we do or do not know of. Im very certain our understanding of the complexity and value of all known and unknown effects is small. But wait there's more.... Magnetic 'ropes' which will also be connected with the 'electroverse' view of the world - read here: www.space.com/27512-sun-storms-formation-solar-physics.htmlmore links here: www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/8284/magnetic-flux-ropes-from-the-sun-to-the-earth-and-beyondand |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2019 21:18:49 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 14, 2019 21:49:52 GMT
Ahh whiskey! Now that is settled science.  But I still hate Bourbon. Rye is better. |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2019 22:03:05 GMT
Ahh whiskey! Now that is settled science. But I still hate Bourbon. Rye is better. Found a bottle of Talisker Storm, end of line 1/2 price yesterday. Id have bought more then 1 but id only drink it and regular whiskey supply kinda ruins it for me. Always Islay tho...that peaty, smokey mmmmh. Oh yeah, gotta buy a bottle on way to Croatia to join my collection there.... Id never be able to save a collection here at home, id just drink it 😉 We wink with different eyes btw 🤨 |
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Post by Ratty on Sept 15, 2019 0:12:29 GMT
Ahh whiskey! Now that is settled science. But I still hate Bourbon. Rye is better. Found a bottle of Talisker Storm, end of line 1/2 price yesterday. Id have bought more then 1 but id only drink it and regular whiskey supply kinda ruins it for me. Always Islay tho...that peaty, smokey mmmmh. Oh yeah, gotta buy a bottle on way to Croatia to join my collection there.... Id never be able to save a collection here at home, id just drink it 😉 We wink with different eyes btw 🤨 That happens after Whiskey/Whisky. BTW .... I noted this gem from the Acidohm font of wisdom: However, yes, they are all interlinked...but can occur independantly.
You can have all the above primed yet nothing unusual happens, there are no guarantees!
Principles of chaos co-ordinate, in ways we will probably never fully understand the results. It just simply isnt possible?
Many times, in many places, I have expressed the same sentiments .... in different words. The weather has no memory. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 15, 2019 2:24:42 GMT
Even in California. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 15, 2019 12:21:43 GMT
Ahh whiskey! Now that is settled science. But I still hate Bourbon. Rye is better. Found a bottle of Talisker Storm, end of line 1/2 price yesterday. Id have bought more then 1 but id only drink it and regular whiskey supply kinda ruins it for me. Always Islay tho...that peaty, smokey mmmmh. Oh yeah, gotta buy a bottle on way to Croatia to join my collection there.... Id never be able to save a collection here at home, id just drink it 😉 We wink with different eyes btw 🤨 Lagavulin is my nectar of choice. |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 15, 2019 15:45:41 GMT
Found a bottle of Talisker Storm, end of line 1/2 price yesterday. Id have bought more then 1 but id only drink it and regular whiskey supply kinda ruins it for me. Always Islay tho...that peaty, smokey mmmmh. Oh yeah, gotta buy a bottle on way to Croatia to join my collection there.... Id never be able to save a collection here at home, id just drink it 😉 We wink with different eyes btw 🤨 Lagavulin is my nectar of choice. That was the last bottle i left in croatia, its also my bros-in-laws favourite....so ill be lucky if any is left.... |
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But I still hate Bourbon. Rye is better.
