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Post by missouriboy on Jan 13, 2016 17:28:26 GMT
A Warming of the Tropical Atlantic Following a Warming of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (El Nino)? (Part 2)
In the left graph you can see the temperature deviation spike that occurs in the eastern Pacific in 2009 followed by recession in 2010.
Remember that these are averaged over 0-20N and hence miss those parts of the Nino south of the equator. In the center graph
note the large temperature deviation in 2010 that covers the entire Atlantic at 0-20 N followed by recession in 2011.
The right-hand graphic are east-west slices of temperature deviations to 1000 meters depth covering both the Pacific and Atlantic
centered on 10 N latitude. Note that 2008 (lower left) is below normal at the surface in the eastern Pacific and the western Atlantic.
The western Pacific warm pool is present and connected (?) by 'stringers' into the depths. Similarly, the eastern Atlantic is slightly
warmer than normal with depth stringers. I am assuming that these stringers are real and not just statistical anomalies.
Progress to 2009 (right) and the Pacific warm pool has moved east and is connected to depth by extensive deviation stringers,
while the Atlantic is essentially cold. Finally 2010 (upper left) ... the east Pacific El Nino is dissipating and the remnants appear to
be heading westward, while, in the Atlantic, the entire surface layer is warmer than normal with extensive depth stringers.
If these are not related ... then they certainly are an interesting coincidence. We will see what happens in the Atlantic as the
current El Nino winds down ... noting that there is already a large heat buildup in the west between 20-45 N.
  
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 13, 2016 17:43:01 GMT
Missouriboy:
I love this thinking out of the box work that you are doing! Now to see if anyone else has noticed?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 13, 2016 19:25:22 GMT
More Salinity and Current Mechanics of the N. PacificThe left graphic shows temperature deviations along east-west cross sections cut at 32 and 40 N, revealing western and eastern Pacific currents in 2008. Salinity cross sections cut east-west at 20N, 32N and 40N, together with a north-south section cut at 180 W longitude show lower salinity waters moving south and east-west around the higher salinity island centered on about 25 N latitude. While it is less saline and shallower than the Atlantic equivalent (Sargasso Sea) for reasons posted by Icefisher, it is obvious that Pacific Basin rotation focuses around this permanent feature of the Ocean.  
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 13, 2016 19:35:19 GMT
Missouriboy: I love this thinking out of the box work that you are doing! Now to see if anyone else has noticed? I love feedback ... helps to refocus the tunnel-vision perspective that is easy to get into. |
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Post by acidohm on Jan 14, 2016 20:59:09 GMT
Nice work Missouriboy....its going to be very interesting to see the Atlantic response this time round.
Your lucky your thought process has timed well with nature providing a 'test' !
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2016 2:05:53 GMT
Nice work Missouriboy....its going to be very interesting to see the Atlantic response this time round. Your lucky your thought process has timed well with nature providing a 'test' ! Fate?  or Fart?  One difference is that 2009-10 was at or coming off minimum between solar cycles...the leading Nino. This one will be coming down from SC24 maximum (2nd peak) toward minimum...the trailing Nino. Here's a sequence of 12-month overlapping temperature deviation sequences (Pacific-Atlantic). The 1/15-11/15 setup looks very similar in the Atlantic to the 1/09-12/09 setup. What will next year bring? And where the heck did all that heat in the 2010 equatorial Atlantic come from?  Speculation encouraged. Gotta run ... will speculate later.    |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2016 2:38:30 GMT
This will take a bit of examination!
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2016 15:26:11 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 16, 2016 21:53:53 GMT
HAS ANYONE RUN ACROSS A MONTHLY HADISST EXTRATROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC DATA SERIES?
The real Pacific equivalent of the AMO. I have seen it used in line graphs many times but I cannot find it. MET site has access to the grid data time series, but I was hoping not to have to add it up. Muchas gracias in advance.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 16, 2016 22:16:45 GMT
HAS ANYONE RUN ACROSS A MONTHLY HADISST EXTRATROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC DATA SERIES?
The real Pacific equivalent of the AMO. I have seen it used in line graphs many times but I cannot find it. MET site has access to the grid data time series, but I was hoping not to have to add it up. Muchas gracias in advance. Not anywhere in my reading. However, with that stated, would KIMI have it? |
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Post by icefisher on Jan 16, 2016 22:45:32 GMT
HAS ANYONE RUN ACROSS A MONTHLY HADISST EXTRATROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC DATA SERIES?
The real Pacific equivalent of the AMO. I have seen it used in line graphs many times but I cannot find it. MET site has access to the grid data time series, but I was hoping not to have to add it up. Muchas gracias in advance. I have seen it but not sure where to find it. As I recall its not a strict AMO equivalent as it has a different methodology. Look at the wikipedia article on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
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Post by icefisher on Jan 16, 2016 23:31:35 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 17, 2016 1:32:16 GMT
Thanks Icefisher and Sig ... but it's not the PDO. It's the SSTs themselves that are the inputs to the PDO. As per Bob Tisdale, who is usually great with links, the series is plotted as the blue line. Maybe he recreated it himself. But this looks very much like an undetrended version of the AMO with the periodicity of the PDO, which is computed from it and pressure variables.  Bob and others believe that ENSO leads the PDO (and by definition HADISST). We have some (possible) indication that ENSO may also lead SST effects in the Atlantic. I add the chart below showing the PDO plotted against ENSO and solar cycle variables (sunspots and geomagnetic AP). I speculated before that it appears that El Ninos 'go off'' on either side of solar cycles (the rising and falling flanks). The negative phase of the PDO merely means the Pacific heat is concentrated in the west/central Pacific. Solar Cycles 18, 19 and 20 were centered on the 1945-75 negative phase of the PDO. These were arguably stronger than SCs 21,22 and 23, which were centered on the late positive PDO (1975-2005). Opposite heat locations with similar(?) solar events. Why? El Nino events in the negative phase were smaller ... La Ninas larger ... vice versa in the positive phase. Not that I'm likely to find the answer to this rather large puzzle, but I'm intrigued. Sig has gone on record as thinking we may be repeating the 1900+ climate period. SC24 sure seems to be going that direction in terms of strength ... but it may be a double negative, PDO and AMO. I note a monster El Nino (1938-39) right before the PDO switched ... just like now??? Interesting times for sure.  |
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Post by icefisher on Jan 17, 2016 5:39:28 GMT
It does appear that you would get a better fit if one of the indexes was flipped. Not sure what that means. But at any rate at the link I provided with the PDO index values they list the SST sources. Not a link but it names the source if thats any help.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 17, 2016 9:40:36 GMT
It does appear that you would get a better fit if one of the indexes was flipped. Not sure what that means. But at any rate at the link I provided with the PDO index values they list the SST sources. Not a link but it names the source if thats any help. It does and thank you. I always appreciate help. May have to download some of the 2x2 or 5x5 deg. data and construct my own sub-ocean index areas...or maybe i'll contact Bob and see if he shares. |
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or Fart? 
One difference is that 2009-10 was at or coming off minimum between solar cycles...the leading Nino.
Speculation encouraged.
