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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2016 5:55:29 GMT
Central Pacific Ocean (150-190 W, 0-60 N) Inter-Latitude Circulation in an El Nino?As in the Sargasso Sea in the Atlantic, the Central North Pacific High Salinity Area would seem be be the hub around which the Oceans currents and waters circulate. The Central core lies between about 20-40 Deg. N Latitude and about 150-190 W Longitude. In this post I am comparing temperature deviations in the upper 0-100 meter depth zone for 2005 to 2015 between the core area and the tropical (0-20N) and high-latitude (40-60 N) zones to the south and north. I was especially interested in any heat circulation patterns that might be evident in ENSO years. As I understand the process by which warm waters from the Pacific warm pool migrate eastward in El Nino years, there are a series of Kelvin waves, largely in the upper 700 meters, that propagate eastward displacing the normally colder surface waters in the east. An absence or lowering of the Trade Winds enhances or allows this propagation. The warm pool, I thought, was largely in and around the SW N. Pacific. The left chart seems to show that temperature changes in the tropical zone of the Central Pacific are mirror opposites of changes in the 20-40 N zone. During La Ninas such as 2008 temperature deviations at 20-40 N are positive and the tropical zone at 0-20 N is negative. During El Nino Years this relationship reverses, suggesting that warmer waters in the Core area are diverted (?) into the Tropical Zone. There is even some decline in temperatures in the northernmost zone. AM I MISINTERPRETING this result? However, as the 0-65 temperature deviations show ... there is no net change in temperature from 2004 in the 0-100 m zone for the 11 year period.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 18, 2016 15:07:26 GMT
The claimed mechanism for El Nino is that warm water pools in the West Pacific then for an indeterminate reason forms a 'Kelvin wave' that carries warm water to the East Pacific, this in turn causes the surface winds to change to westerly reinforcing the Kelvin wave movement.
Fine
How does that or even can that 'lead SST effects in the Atlantic'? The winds are not consistent with that so what could cause similar effects in Pacific equatorial waters and the Atlantic equatorial waters? There are two things that could do that and they may be related.
Hypothesizing.... Some time ago, Pidgey, was tracking Length of Day (LOD) values and showing links from that to phenomena like El Nino. The LOD changes when the Earth's orbit alters, this could be due to the Earth tracking the Sun which itself has LOD changes due to influence from Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. These effects could be what drives or helps drive the solar dynamo so called which appears to be what drives the solar cycles. So could a trigger on Earth for El Nino be a change in LOD caused by the Earth tracking the Sun's motion and the fluid layers of the ocean and atmosphere with their own inertia develop Kelvin waves, which may or may not be supported by other climate effects. Dare I say it - but these alterations in LOD are driven by the orbits of the gas giants and others and where the Earth is in its own orbit with all the other variances from multiple cycles of the Moon as it moves through the orbital plane of the Earth and the tides... which all sounds very much like the kind of study that Theo aka Astromet is doing. It would then make sense that at times the Pacific and Atlantic would show some degree of synchronicity, perhaps even the Indian Ocean if anyone has been interested to study it also has the same mirroring of the other oceans; Argo may show that.
Just a thought.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2016 22:06:23 GMT
The claimed mechanism for El Nino is that warm water pools in the West Pacific then for an indeterminate reason forms a 'Kelvin wave' that carries warm water to the East Pacific, this in turn causes the surface winds to change to westerly reinforcing the Kelvin wave movement. Fine How does that or even can that 'lead SST effects in the Atlantic'? The winds are not consistent with that so what could cause similar effects in Pacific equatorial waters and the Atlantic equatorial waters? There are two things that could do that and they may be related. Hypothesizing.... Some time ago, Pidgey, was tracking Length of Day (LOD) values and showing links from that to phenomena like El Nino. The LOD changes when the Earth's orbit alters, this could be due to the Earth tracking the Sun which itself has LOD changes due to influence from Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. These effects could be what drives or helps drive the solar dynamo so called which appears to be what drives the solar cycles. So could a trigger on Earth for El Nino be a change in LOD caused by the Earth tracking the Sun's motion and the fluid layers of the ocean and atmosphere with their own inertia develop Kelvin waves, which may or may not be supported by other climate effects. Dare I say it - but these alterations in LOD are driven by the orbits of the gas giants and others and where the Earth is in its own orbit with all the other variances from multiple cycles of the Moon as it moves through the orbital plane of the Earth and the tides... which all sounds very much like the kind of study that Theo aka Astromet is doing. It would then make sense that at times the Pacific and Atlantic would show some degree of synchronicity, perhaps even the Indian Ocean if anyone has been interested to study it also has the same mirroring of the other oceans; Argo may show that. Just a thought. Your thought makes a lot of sense to me, as there is a great amount of coordinated 'sloshing about' that seems to occur on a regular basis ... and there is little explanation as to mechanics. Icefisher, I believe (or was it you), suggested differential upwelling as a force (instigated by some similar force) for propelling Kelvin waves. I was curious as to whether additional, basin-wide heat changes were associated with ENSO events. The following chart seems to suggest that that is not the case, at least not in the shallowest zone ... merely a rearrangement of heat packets on the deck of the S.S. North Pacific. Note the two maps showing the 0-100 meter spatial distribution of temperature deviations of the 2008 La Nina (the classic negative PDO arrangement) and the 2009-10 El Nino. There is clearly a redistribution of heat both from the SW North Pacific (the warm pool) AND from the more northern (above 20 N) areas of the Central Pacific. These changes are clearly seen in the graph showing both the warm pool (0-20 N, 190-240 W) and the central Pacific (20-40 N, 150-190 W) losing heat while the Central Pacific tropical area (0-20 N, 150-190W) increases. These processes appear to be reversed following the El Nino, with the source areas recovering their positive heat deviations. The forces imparting these changes cannot be just straight west-east functions. The 0-65N line shows that there is no net temperature change over the time period. So ... during the pre-El Nino time periods there is a small net heat loss in the 0-100 m zone, which appears to be recovered during the El Nino??? We will see what happens post 2015.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 18, 2016 22:56:45 GMT
The claimed mechanism for El Nino is that warm water pools in the West Pacific then for an indeterminate reason forms a 'Kelvin wave' that carries warm water to the East Pacific, this in turn causes the surface winds to change to westerly reinforcing the Kelvin wave movement. Fine How does that or even can that 'lead SST effects in the Atlantic'? The winds are not consistent with that so what could cause similar effects in Pacific equatorial waters and the Atlantic equatorial waters? There are two things that could do that and they may be related. Hypothesizing.... Some time ago, Pidgey, was tracking Length of Day (LOD) values and showing links from that to phenomena like El Nino. The LOD changes when the Earth's orbit alters, this could be due to the Earth tracking the Sun which itself has LOD changes due to influence from Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. These effects could be what drives or helps drive the solar dynamo so called which appears to be what drives the solar cycles. So could a trigger on Earth for El Nino be a change in LOD caused by the Earth tracking the Sun's motion and the fluid layers of the ocean and atmosphere with their own inertia develop Kelvin waves, which may or may not be supported by other climate effects. Dare I say it - but these alterations in LOD are driven by the orbits of the gas giants and others and where the Earth is in its own orbit with all the other variances from multiple cycles of the Moon as it moves through the orbital plane of the Earth and the tides... which all sounds very much like the kind of study that Theo aka Astromet is doing. It would then make sense that at times the Pacific and Atlantic would show some degree of synchronicity, perhaps even the Indian Ocean if anyone has been interested to study it also has the same mirroring of the other oceans; Argo may show that. Just a thought. Your thought makes a lot of sense to me, as there is a great amount of coordinated 'sloshing about' that seems to occur on a regular basis ... and there is little explanation as to mechanics. Icefisher, I believe (or was it you), suggested differential upwelling as a force (instigated by some similar force) for propelling Kelvin waves. I was curious as to whether additional, basin-wide heat changes were associated with ENSO events. The following chart seems to suggest that that is not the case, at least not in the shallowest zone ... merely a rearrangement of heat packets on the deck of the S.S. North Pacific. Note the two maps showing the 0-100 meter spatial distribution of temperature deviations of the 2008 La Nina (the classic negative PDO arrangement) and the 2009-10 El Nino. There is clearly a redistribution of heat both from the SW North Pacific (the warm pool) AND from the more northern (above 20 N) areas of the Central Pacific. These changes are clearly seen in the graph showing both the warm pool (0-20 N, 190-240 W) and the central Pacific (20-40 N, 150-190 W) losing heat while the Central Pacific tropical area (0-20 N, 150-190W) increases. These processes appear to be reversed following the El Nino, with the source areas recovering their positive heat deviations. The forces imparting these changes cannot be just straight west-east functions. The 0-65N line shows that there is no net temperature change over the time period. So ... during the pre-El Nino time periods there is a small net heat loss in the 0-100 m zone, which appears to be recovered during the El Nino??? We will see what happens post 2015. View AttachmentView AttachmentThere are a few things we do know. For example, a large portion of the west coast of continental US is an upwelling zone. The upwellings are induced by offshore winds. Around many promontories the coast line runs east and west. At these locations upwellings are even more prevalent as offshore winds become more prevalent. The prevailing winds on the west coast are onshore. A signature of El Nino is onshore winds and La Nina offshore winds off Peru and Ecuador. But unlike the west coast off Peru and Ecuador the prevailing winds are offshore making upwelling an almost permanent feature. Kelvin waves are also generated by these easterly winds that span the entire Pacific zone around the equator by piling up water to the west in the western Pacific. Sea level is higher there as a result. That water sloshes back during El Nino when the easterly winds diminish. I have said that the warm anomalies seen next to the shore during an El Nino are probably more attributable to the lack of cold water upwelling than water sloshing back from the western Pacific. Now the El Modoki El Nino only recently discovered, most likely because El Nino has only been scientifically analyzed since the late 1960's, may be attributable to changes in surface currents, stuff you are looking at with ARGO data. Unfortunately ARGO is too young to encompass different decadal ocean regimes in the Pacific so any such changes simply are not available for analysis. One theory might be that El Modoki is influenced by a surface flow that diverts the upwelling further to sea. Just a thought. My experience is mostly west coast. We have seen some really amazing changes in recent years. We have had a mix of cold water fish in quantity not seen in my experience and this recent El Nino brought fish here from warm water areas not seen by the oldest fishermen around here. Mixing of currents, the cold water California current in the winter and the strong counter current most evident during summer when prevailing winds shift from northwest to southwest. It has been pushing big quantities of fish common to northern California, then this El Nino pushing large quantities of fish only seen previously in Baja California Sur during the past two summers. Its like west coast currents have become more active yet wind conditions do not seem to be more active, though this summer the wind direction this past summer was unusual in being more south than southwest. Something is up not sure what it is. But I was too young the last time this happened to be as aware of it as I am now. I did find a commercial fisherman that claimed it was like this in 1939 the only year a tropical storm ever hit the west coast. But we were spared that this time.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2016 23:53:02 GMT
Your thought makes a lot of sense to me, as there is a great amount of coordinated 'sloshing about' that seems to occur on a regular basis ... and there is little explanation as to mechanics. Icefisher, I believe (or was it you), suggested differential upwelling as a force (instigated by some similar force) for propelling Kelvin waves. I was curious as to whether additional, basin-wide heat changes were associated with ENSO events. The following chart seems to suggest that that is not the case, at least not in the shallowest zone ... merely a rearrangement of heat packets on the deck of the S.S. North Pacific. Note the two maps showing the 0-100 meter spatial distribution of temperature deviations of the 2008 La Nina (the classic negative PDO arrangement) and the 2009-10 El Nino. There is clearly a redistribution of heat both from the SW North Pacific (the warm pool) AND from the more northern (above 20 N) areas of the Central Pacific. These changes are clearly seen in the graph showing both the warm pool (0-20 N, 190-240 W) and the central Pacific (20-40 N, 150-190 W) losing heat while the Central Pacific tropical area (0-20 N, 150-190W) increases. These processes appear to be reversed following the El Nino, with the source areas recovering their positive heat deviations. The forces imparting these changes cannot be just straight west-east functions. The 0-65N line shows that there is no net temperature change over the time period. So ... during the pre-El Nino time periods there is a small net heat loss in the 0-100 m zone, which appears to be recovered during the El Nino??? We will see what happens post 2015. There are a few things we do know. For example, a large portion of the west coast of continental US is an upwelling zone. The upwellings are induced by offshore winds. Around many promontories the coast line runs east and west. At these locations upwellings are even more prevalent as offshore winds become more prevalent. The prevailing winds on the west coast are onshore. A signature of El Nino is onshore winds and La Nina offshore winds off Peru and Ecuador. But unlike the west coast off Peru and Ecuador the prevailing winds are offshore making upwelling an almost permanent feature. Kelvin waves are also generated by these easterly winds that span the entire Pacific zone around the equator by piling up water to the west in the western Pacific. Sea level is higher there as a result. That water sloshes back during El Nino when the easterly winds diminish. I have said that the warm anomalies seen next to the shore during an El Nino are probably more attributable to the lack of cold water upwelling than water sloshing back from the western Pacific. Now the El Modoki El Nino only recently discovered, most likely because El Nino has only been scientifically analyzed since the late 1960's, may be attributable to changes in surface currents, stuff you are looking at with ARGO data. Unfortunately ARGO is too young to encompass different decadal ocean regimes in the Pacific so any such changes simply are not available for analysis. One theory might be that El Modoki is influenced by a surface flow that diverts the upwelling further to sea. Just a thought. My experience is mostly west coast. We have seen some really amazing changes in recent years. We have had a mix of cold water fish in quantity not seen in my experience and this recent El Nino brought fish here from warm water areas not seen by the oldest fishermen around here. Mixing of currents, the cold water California current in the winter and the strong counter current most evident during summer when prevailing winds shift from northwest to southwest. It has been pushing big quantities of fish common to northern California, then this El Nino pushing large quantities of fish only seen previously in Baja California Sur during the past two summers. Its like west coast currents have become more active yet wind conditions do not seem to be more active, though this summer the wind direction this past summer was unusual in being more south than southwest. Something is up not sure what it is. But I was too young the last time this happened to be as aware of it as I am now. I did find a commercial fisherman that claimed it was like this in 1939 the only year a tropical storm ever hit the west coast. But we were spared that this time. 1939. The last big El Nino before the Pacific went long-term negative was about 1940-41. Right timing. Just ran the Indian Ocean and there IS a temperature spike perhaps in sequence with the Pacific and Atlantic. If there is any thing to it, then it sequenced: Pacific 2009, Atlantic 2010, Indian 2011. Interesting. The chart is below. The decadal temperature deviation for the Indian is in line with the S. Pacific and S. Atlantic at about 0.04 C for the decade for the upper 2000 meters.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2016 0:08:55 GMT
Curry's stadium wave is looking more plausible all the time.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 19, 2016 1:42:33 GMT
Curry's stadium wave is looking more plausible all the time. I need to go back and do a re-read ... been awhile. I forget the intervals.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2016 3:14:35 GMT
Curry's stadium wave is looking more plausible all the time. I need to go back and do a re-read ... been awhile. I forget the intervals. The main part of her paper was that weather phenomena circle the globe in waves.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 19, 2016 14:47:17 GMT
A key element of her stadium wave concept is that the wave is never-ending and repeating just like a stadium wave. The "final" stage of a quasi 60-year period is the "first" stage of the next 60-year period.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 19, 2016 20:35:17 GMT
A key element of her stadium wave concept is that the wave is never-ending and repeating just like a stadium wave. The "final" stage of a quasi 60-year period is the "first" stage of the next 60-year period. Two of these quasi 60-year cycles brings us back to 1900 ... the last time the geomagnetic AP index was as low as now. The AMO is where it was then, preparing to go negative. The PDO seems slightly different. And not quite a 100 years beyond that is the Dalton Minimum. Interesting times.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 19, 2016 23:47:35 GMT
A key element of her stadium wave concept is that the wave is never-ending and repeating just like a stadium wave. The "final" stage of a quasi 60-year period is the "first" stage of the next 60-year period. Two of these quasi 60-year cycles brings us back to 1900 ... the last time the geomagnetic AP index was as low as now. The AMO is where it was then, preparing to go negative. The PDO seems slightly different. And not quite a 100 years beyond that is the Dalton Minimum. Interesting times. View AttachmentI would put hardly any reliance on Pacific data around 1900. Just about everything on that is done via modeling and proxy. Prior to WWII just about the only available ocean records are British and US Naval records. While we had a few warships in the Pacific post the Spanish American war there was no official Pacific fleet until the mid 1920's so the ships there were not part of an organized Pacific defense plan. In the 1930's with Japanese expansion Pacific planning took off and environmental records only then began to be worthy of much. I have seen the PDO data and it really becomes unintelligible in the first half of the 20th century and further back. Most likely all you can see is noise in the data from a lack of data. This multi-decadal variability in either ocean was not identified by science until the mid-1990's though fisherman had identified it much sooner. At least in the Atlantic they had a long history of sea surface temperatures.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 20, 2016 17:19:27 GMT
Two of these quasi 60-year cycles brings us back to 1900 ... the last time the geomagnetic AP index was as low as now. The AMO is where it was then, preparing to go negative. The PDO seems slightly different. And not quite a 100 years beyond that is the Dalton Minimum. Interesting times. I would put hardly any reliance on Pacific data around 1900. Just about everything on that is done via modeling and proxy. Prior to WWII just about the only available ocean records are British and US Naval records. While we had a few warships in the Pacific post the Spanish American war there was no official Pacific fleet until the mid 1920's so the ships there were not part of an organized Pacific defense plan. In the 1930's with Japanese expansion Pacific planning took off and environmental records only then began to be worthy of much. I have seen the PDO data and it really becomes unintelligible in the first half of the 20th century and further back. Most likely all you can see is noise in the data from a lack of data. This multi-decadal variability in either ocean was not identified by science until the mid-1990's though fisherman had identified it much sooner. At least in the Atlantic they had a long history of sea surface temperatures. You are correct ... point well taken. I'll try not to forget the difference in collection between the two oceans. Also, we all recognize I think that the PDO is not a measure of ocean temperature, but a spatial distribution index of whatever heat is there. HADISST is supposed to be a semi-equivalent measure to the AMO but I still cannot find it in digital form (already assembled like the AMO). If the PDO does have a longer-term cycle equivalent to a 30-60 year pattern, then one would expect that the pre-1923(?) cycle would have been negative, but the 'reconstructed' index does not appear to show that. Or, just perhaps, the spatial distribution of heat has a different cycle. As the largest water body on the planet, this resident heat is surely(?) important both in aggregate as well as its spatial distribution.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 20, 2016 22:42:25 GMT
West to East Synchronized Temperature Waves in the World's Oceans
First a salute to the Stadium Wave: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu2J5-Yz9yIFirst chart left shows that northern and southern portions of the three Oceans (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic) are time synchronous in terms of their temperature deviation peaks. Charts two and three show that, when broken in half (around their relatively neutral temperature-change core), the Pacific Ocean also 'fires off' in west to east sequence ... thus four relatively time-synchronized events moving from west to east over approximately three years or so. So how many in a Curry complete cycle? Approx. 20? Too few observations as of yet. Note that some elements skip a beat ... or hang on a relatively level note. Ain't Argo great? Added Note: Forgot to mention that these tabulations are ONLY for the upper 100 meters of the tropical zones, 0-20 N and 0-20 S.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2016 20:43:00 GMT
West to East Synchronized Temperature Waves in the World's Oceans
First a salute to the Stadium Wave: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu2J5-Yz9yIView AttachmentView AttachmentView AttachmentFirst chart left shows that northern and southern portions of the three Oceans (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic) are time synchronous in terms of their temperature deviation peaks. Charts two and three show that, when broken in half (around their relatively neutral temperature-change core), the Pacific Ocean also 'fires off' in west to east sequence ... thus four relatively time-synchronized events moving from west to east over approximately three years or so. So how many in a Curry complete cycle? Approx. 20? Too few observations as of yet. Note that some elements skip a beat ... or hang on a relatively level note. Ain't Argo great? Added Note: Forgot to mention that these tabulations are ONLY for the upper 100 meters of the tropical zones, 0-20 N and 0-20 S.
I must admit your blowing my mind with your recent output Mboy! Your way ahead of me on this one and I'm very much enjoying seeing your contributions. I really must read up on stadium wave theory....very interesting that you've found corellating information in the argo Data!
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 22, 2016 16:07:01 GMT
West to East Synchronized Temperature Waves in the World's Oceans
First a salute to the Stadium Wave: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu2J5-Yz9yIFirst chart left shows that northern and southern portions of the three Oceans (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic) are time synchronous in terms of their temperature deviation peaks. Charts two and three show that, when broken in half (around their relatively neutral temperature-change core), the Pacific Ocean also 'fires off' in west to east sequence ... thus four relatively time-synchronized events moving from west to east over approximately three years or so. So how many in a Curry complete cycle? Approx. 20? Too few observations as of yet. Note that some elements skip a beat ... or hang on a relatively level note. Ain't Argo great? Added Note: Forgot to mention that these tabulations are ONLY for the upper 100 meters of the tropical zones, 0-20 N and 0-20 S.
I must admit your blowing my mind with your recent output Mboy! Your way ahead of me on this one and I'm very much enjoying seeing your contributions. I really must read up on stadium wave theory....very interesting that you've found corellating information in the argo Data! Curry's article is on here somewhere ... I downloaded it. And I believe that Duwayne provided the link. As the current El Nino (or anomalous SST expression?) winds down we'll see what springs up in the Atlantic ... or not. The golden anchovy award goes to he or she (or it?) that can adequately explain it. I'll send a copy to your email address.
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