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Post by missouriboy on Jul 3, 2016 3:34:53 GMT
www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/07/01/the-biggest-body-of-warm-water-on-earth-is-getting-even-bigger/The Pacific Ocean warm pool is growing.
“It is about four or five times larger than Australia,” said Seung-Ki Min, a researcher at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea and an author of a new study in Science Advances on the warm pool’s expansion. “It has been increasing about 32 percent over the last 60 years in size.” "When it comes to climate change, much of the most vivid imagery is far away from the warm pool — in the rapidly warming Arctic, for instance, where sea ice is vanishing and glaciers are breaking off city-sized pieces. That’s all very dramatic, but the slow, creeping expansion of the warm pool is hard to match when it comes to ultimate consequences." This is where the theme song to "The Twilight Zone" plays in the background and Rod Serling begins his dialogue.
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Post by douglavers on Jul 3, 2016 4:20:48 GMT
I have to admit that from my [amateur] point of view, the article was not convincing.
It was followed by a number of bad-tempered comments, some of which appeared libelous and many simply wrong.
I keep looking at the satellite temperature graph, and wonder when the planetary temperature will go below the 30 year average.
Or a lot lower.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 3, 2016 5:01:07 GMT
Should I buy an evaporative cooler or a heater? Is it an actual warm pool or a model of a warm pool? Where is it exactly?
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Post by douglavers on Jul 3, 2016 5:34:37 GMT
"We seek him here, we seek him there Those Frenchies seek him everywhere! Is he in heaven? Or is he in hell? That demmed Elusive Pimpernel?"
With apologies to Baroness Orczy.
He's well hidden in the deep ocean, where warm water is magically denser than water at 3 degC, assuming constant salinity.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 3, 2016 14:03:53 GMT
"We seek him here, we seek him there Those Frenchies seek him everywhere! Is he in heaven? Or is he in hell? That demmed Elusive Pimpernel?" With apologies to Baroness Orczy. He's well hidden in the deep ocean, where warm water is magically denser than water at 3 degC, assuming constant salinity. We seek him here, we seek him there My hotspot won't stay put ... Every time I would define I shoot me in the foot.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 25, 2016 12:54:10 GMT
June came in at 2.03 so still on the way to being the longest run of any sign, since 98', and another '2.0 something' in the positive bin ( now over twice as many high value positives since 98' than negatives?)
With 'the blob' still lurking off the coast there it doesn't look like we'll be seeing any PDO negatives for a while yet? When the longest run of any sign since 98' becomes positive does that bring the whole 'PDO-ve' thing in doubt and place us in PDO neutral since 98'.............
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Post by acidohm on Jul 25, 2016 16:38:41 GMT
I was going to comment that maybe the blob was back a few weeks ago! Definitely for a time 'it' lurked off the PNW....but your right code, it wandered off....
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Post by Ratty on Jul 25, 2016 23:11:50 GMT
All this talk of The Blob brings back memories of Steve McQueen.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 26, 2016 2:32:55 GMT
June came in at 2.03 so still on the way to being the longest run of any sign, since 98', and another '2.0 something' in the positive bin ( now over twice as many high value positives since 98' than negatives?) With 'the blob' still lurking off the coast there it doesn't look like we'll be seeing any PDO negatives for a while yet? When the longest run of any sign since 98' becomes positive does that bring the whole 'PDO-ve' thing in doubt and place us in PDO neutral since 98'............. The PDO may say what it wants about how the heat is arranged in its West-East allignment, but the decadal tally of positive months from the little ENSO heat engine is pointing to a cycle shift (?) just past this last big blow off. Those tallies have been heading downward since 1996. Lay your bets gentlemen. We've been in a long neutral. Icefisher ... your 1957 El Nino was in a cold-dominated ENSO period. The 2015 El Nino may turn out to be the same. Note where the great climate shift is on this chart. Note where the pause is. There may have been another pause following that great 1940 El Nino. Right before the last time the world went cold.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 26, 2016 6:18:28 GMT
Nice graph MB. There is no evidence that these oscillations are in any way connected to anthropogenic warming, especially since the climate data that runs in them is detrended. The comment by Dr James Hanson while heading up of NASA's GISS that "El Nino is the new normal" is just typical of how Hanson concludes on stuff before learning anything about it or before engaging his brain into the discussion.
This is a key piece of our climate variation, something the fishing community has been aware of a lot longer than scientists. Despite it being documented in 1996 by fishery scientists it pretty much remained unknown until 2009 when Dr Akasofu revived it.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 26, 2016 10:19:29 GMT
I ran the numbers through a filter to set up a 'neutral' ( -1.2 to 1.2) and the cycle since 98' certainly stands out! The warm PDO phase preceding it had 79 'neutral' , 10 negative and 73 positive months. So far in this phase ( since the end of 97') we have had 146 Neutral, 40 negative and 30 positive months........ Why not take a peak; research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latestand see just how the 'known' phases break down. You cannot escape the increase in 'neutrals' and 'positives' whilst watching the negatives dwindle?
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Post by Ratty on Jul 26, 2016 10:31:02 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 26, 2016 11:46:01 GMT
just means they've filled in all the potholes. No more 'bumps' on the way to Nirvana.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 26, 2016 12:39:24 GMT
just means they've filled in all the potholes. No more 'bumps' on the way to Nirvana. All the do is extrapolate the temperature in Washington DC, or an appropriate surrogate if the models suggest, a little further than usual.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 26, 2016 13:55:51 GMT
I ran the numbers through a filter to set up a 'neutral' ( -1.2 to 1.2) and the cycle since 98' certainly stands out! The warm PDO phase preceding it had 79 'neutral' , 10 negative and 73 positive months. So far in this phase ( since the end of 97') we have had 146 Neutral, 40 negative and 30 positive months........ Why not take a peak; research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latestand see just how the 'known' phases break down. You cannot escape the increase in 'neutrals' and 'positives' whilst watching the negatives dwindle? Neutral ... negative ... positive. How much does it matter. These numbers have already been through the statistical wringer, and were developed to look a heat shifts between the west and east Pacific. I plotted the running decadal sum of positive and negative PDO months. What's apparant is that the sum of PDO-positive months peaked in the late 1980s and have been declining since. It looks just like the ENSO positive and negative running decadal sums plotted in the previous post. NOAA has also adjusted the PDO index from the first version I had ... plotted in the second graph. Interesting that they adjusted recent PDO values lower. The old series would have extended the positive-sum-month tallies down year a bit ... but it would still be declining. Where's the disaster?
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