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Post by sigurdur on Feb 4, 2016 22:43:38 GMT
I've been following the thread icefisher, but tbh as I've only been following the subject for a couple of years it's been better to learn from it then paticipate. However, it's not lost on me that ssw is named as such because the qbo getsdisrupted by atmospheric rossby waves, and causes stratospheric collapse, which causes increased pressure and raises it's temp by as much as 40°c in a day!!! Ie, even pressure of an airmass influences temp greatly Why does Sig keep bringing up mass??? :-O Think of the atmosphere as a bucket. If the bucket is empty, it doesn't have much for heat value. Fill it with water, and now you have a bucket with a lot of joules of heat in it. Our atmosphere has a lot of mass, hence the ability to have heat. The main thing about our atmosphere is the H2O vapor.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 5, 2016 5:53:14 GMT
I've been following the thread icefisher, but tbh as I've only been following the subject for a couple of years it's been better to learn from it then paticipate. However, it's not lost on me that ssw is named as such because the qbo getsdisrupted by atmospheric rossby waves, and causes stratospheric collapse, which causes increased pressure and raises it's temp by as much as 40°c in a day!!! Ie, even pressure of an airmass influences temp greatly Why does Sig keep bringing up mass??? :-O Well most likely the only way CO2 could warm anything is probably by conduction to the rest of the atmosphere. Intercept heat and conduct to the gasses that are poor IR emitters. CO2 itself is a poor IR emitter only affecting about 8% of the IR band. But oxygen and nitrogen are worse IR emitters to an extent they are claimed by some to emit none. But if that were the route and the warmists are not claiming it is it would require a larger portion of the atmosphere be CO2 to be able to transmit that heat. The problem for the warmists is they even recognize that CO2 does not have sufficient mass to do that. So a magical theory has been adopted. A theory that defies demonstration. Its so mathematically plausible people have adopted it left and right. To a scientist so deep into the mathematics of science its like a Beethoven Symphony. It does have a few pecularities like in not warming stuff by absorption that stuff that do not absorb warm from. Its like a force more powerful and basic than reflection that prevents the object committing the act of climate terrorism from warming itself and instead warming a warmer object. Its passed off as one way glass, though all the one way glasses we can demonstrate use reflection. So I have been trying to learn more and Andrew is a good teacher coming up with some good stuff that has aided my understanding but I keep pushing because it seems everything that comes up ends up being a peripheral issue that does not drive the nail that establishes the greenhouse effect.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 9, 2016 16:41:08 GMT
While I believe there was in fact an El Nino it does in fact appear it was not what we thought. Here in the PNW snow pack is above normal and in California the weather also has been odd. Has El Niño abandoned L.A.?By Rong-Gong Lin II, Brittny Mejia and Sarah Parvini: Contact Reporters "It's too early to be certain. But some scientists say El Niño is operating differently than they expected — at least for Southern California." How does something not behave as is should? Remember those kid games where you had to pick something that was different than the other things? The shape of the ssta never looked like a 'typical' nino, it was very much centralised in the 3.4 region. This is also the region used to compare el Ninos. ...but guess what, near the coast of s America, it was never really all that....this is why the effects on land have been 'dissapointing' Wrong type of nino..... It never even really affected the trade winds much... I can relate to all if the above in that I've been expecting snow this winter but never got any, also 'dissapointed'
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Post by acidohm on Feb 11, 2016 21:48:11 GMT
As of yesterday.......
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 12, 2016 5:30:14 GMT
I think it had a large number of El Nino characteristics.
So how many ticks does it take for an El Nino like thing to get over the line.
The biggest problem I have with this one is the South American fishing signal which was simply not triggered and for no other reason than it was the original signal.
Meaning would they in Peru have recorded this as an El Nino if it had occurred 200 years ago, I suspect not.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 12, 2016 12:26:58 GMT
I think it had a large number of El Nino characteristics. So how many ticks does it take for an El Nino like thing to get over the line. The biggest problem I have with this one is the South American fishing signal which was simply not triggered and for no other reason than it was the original signal. Meaning would they in Peru have recorded this as an El Nino if it had occurred 200 years ago, I suspect not. I agree, the fishermen would have seen the last year a good fishing year, the weather in their area and for that matter all the way to SOCAL is not El Nino weather. But we have 'Climate Scientists' now and they decided that they would put a virtual box over the eastern Pacific which they then called Nino 3.4 and in the few instances (not even up to the level of statistical significance) of El Nino that they looked at the SSTs in that area were warmer than normal. So they decided that warm SSTs in the 'Nino 3.4' box meant it was an El Nino. Nobody has queried them on this, perhaps they should. Similarly, the decision was made that difference in atmospheric sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin could be used to guess that the trade winds were easterly or westerly, the Southern Oscillation Index. These days satellite imagery can actually show the winds and the SOI was fooled a couple of times this year by small weather systems. It all comes down to people simplifying things and using proxies as absolute proof when the proxies may have been valid for a few occasions. Unfortunately, they appear to have underestimated the complexity of the weather. Trying to put chaotic weather systems into simple boxes seems to be a fools errand - and climate 'science'has got shiploads of them.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2016 18:12:55 GMT
Nino regions
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Post by hrizzo on Feb 13, 2016 10:50:40 GMT
nonentropic said:
Is there any article about this, or commentaries from fishermen or authorities? It seems that, at least from the original concept, Astro was right.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 13, 2016 17:38:38 GMT
nonentropic said: Is there any article about this, or commentaries from fishermen or authorities? It seems that, at least from the original concept, Astro was right. Good to see you again. Yes, they are talking about the anchovy harvest that in an El Nino year would be weak as the fish enjoy cool water. This past year the harvest was very good, not something that happens during an El Nino warm water event. Over 95% of Peru's Northern Anchovy Quota Taken Ahead of July 31 Closurewww.seafoodnews.com/Story/982539/Over-95-percent-of-Perus-Northern-Anchovy-Quota-Taken-Ahead-of-July-31-ClosureYou can't go by recent catch. Not sure about Peruvian anchovy but anchovies spawn in the winter and it is survival of this spawn that affects the fishing. So a better measure will be the anchovy catch over the coming two years. Also percent of quota caught is meaningless. Quota for US sardines and anchovy is adjusted by SSTs to avoid overfishing a specie struggling to survive in an adverse environment. I don't know if they do that in Peru or not. The closure further complicates the analysis as when El Nino was invented by the fishermen they had no quota, probably a lot fewer fishermen chasing them, and no closures. In other words, the only way to tell is to watch whatever stock assessments the scientists do on these stocks. Even then in the world of modern post-normal science that is not necessarily a reliable indicator either. Ultimately is a very difficult analysis that has to take in account changes in fishing technology and catch per unit effort. When the word El Nino was invented they did not have gear like this:
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 13, 2016 18:10:20 GMT
Yes and no, in regards to the Anchovy catch.
Central Pacific El Nino events don't seem to do much to the level of catch. Eastern Pacific warm events certainly do. Notice during this El Nino event that the Humboldt current stayed strong and cool. Time will tell, but looking at past records of tonnage doesn't look like the current event would have been noticed.
Just like this event didn't seem to affect South American weather in ag producing areas. It was forecast to do so, based on previous El Nino events. But as I have said before, each one is different, and the placing of this one isn't a "normal" (if there is such a thing) El Nino.
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 13, 2016 19:02:11 GMT
So the point is if the old definition is not used now and this was a "western centered El Nino" all the discussion about historical El Nino frequency comparisons and intensity discussions are dead.
The deep currents bring nutrients and the fish are single season species. So better boats help but all those boats if brought to NZ would not give NZ an Anchovy fisher of scale.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 13, 2016 19:24:08 GMT
Yes and no, in regards to the Anchovy catch. Central Pacific El Nino events don't seem to do much to the level of catch. Eastern Pacific warm events certainly do. Notice during this El Nino event that the Humboldt current stayed strong and cool. Time will tell, but looking at past records of tonnage doesn't look like the current event would have been noticed. Just like this event didn't seem to affect South American weather in ag producing areas. It was forecast to do so, based on previous El Nino events. But as I have said before, each one is different, and the placing of this one isn't a "normal" (if there is such a thing) El Nino. Here is an excerpt on a scientific analysis of the Peruvian Anchovy. The decade of the 1990s and first few years of the 21 st century brought a remarkable series of El Niños in 1991-92, 1993, 1994, 1997-98, and 2002-03. Both the 1991-92 and 1997-98 El Niños were very strong. The latter produced societal impacts as devastating as the 1982-83 El Niño and was almost certainly the strongest El Niño of the 20 th century. The increasing frequency and intensity of El Niños during the last two decades of the 20 th century has been attributed by some scientists to global warming caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. Remarkably, with the exception of 1998 when fishing was restricted, the catch of Peruvian anchovies during the 1990s averaged 7.6 Mt, virtually identical to the maximum sustainable yield estimated by IMARPE scientists. It would thus appear that with proper management the biological resource can sustain a remarkable fishery despite the occurrence of frequent El Niños. This logically brings us to the practical challenge of managing the Peruvian anchovy fishery.You can find a lot more here on this: www.ucar.edu/communications/gcip/m12anchovy/m12html.html#chapter6Bottom line is the anchovy is no longer an indicator of El Nino. Fish management has more impact on catches than the environment. Technology has enabled anchovy fishers to go find the fish where they are. When the anchovy El Nino legend started it was probably mostly guys in pangas (boats generally less than 30 feet) using small lampara nets fishing very close to shore in a limited area of coastline. Starting in the late 40's it became big purse seiners equipped electronics developed during WWII. A big crash occurred in the 1982 El Nino but that might have as likely been overfishing as environmental. The 1950's thru the 1980's major crashes in fisheries have occurred primarily from overfishing. Today in most major fisheries they are being avoided via experienced fishery management. Biggest problem today in fisheries is Asia where a reasonable idea of sustainability has yet to take hold. Point is that the anchovy El Nino origin has little support in modern fisheries. When it was little boats it might have been very real, but that measure probably only exists today in a small footnote and/or anecdotal data of the few small boat artisanal Peruvian fishermen that remain. In southern California it can be elusive to find impacts of the El Nino in commercial fishing data. The market squid fishery is really the only one strongly effected that was not driven by fishery management. The sardine catches were way down. Sardines are supposed to benefit from warm water, but because cold water in recent years had knocked down the size of spawning stocks quotas were very small. Stock assessments are typically 2 to 3 years behind. One year for the assessment, one year for management to mill around deciding what to do, and then in the 3rd year they impact catches. Why they do that is rather clearly expressed in the second to last sentence of the quote above.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 13, 2016 19:41:20 GMT
So the point is if the old definition is not used now and this was a "western centered El Nino" all the discussion about historical El Nino frequency comparisons and intensity discussions are dead. The deep currents bring nutrients and the fish are single season species. So better boats help but all those boats if brought to NZ would not give NZ an Anchovy fisher of scale. Indeed, this is yet another classic example of the climate 'scientist' habit of patching modern metrics and observations onto previously used proxies. The prime example being tree ring proxies for temperatures being patched to modern temperatures and then climate 'scientists' having to 'hide the decline' in the treemometer metric when modern thermometers were showing an increase.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 13, 2016 19:57:59 GMT
So the point is if the old definition is not used now and this was a "western centered El Nino" all the discussion about historical El Nino frequency comparisons and intensity discussions are dead. The deep currents bring nutrients and the fish are single season species. So better boats help but all those boats if brought to NZ would not give NZ an Anchovy fisher of scale. Well you can't create a fishery where there is no fish. But you can certainly impact an existing fishery with technology and effort. Just in the past 2 decades has fishery management been elevated to the big dog on the stage. When the Peruvian fishermen named El Nino, they no doubt had smaller boats, might not have had engines, used much smaller nets, had a much smaller fishing range, had no management, and may not have covered as much coastline as they do now. I think we can all acknowledge this El Nino is different than the ones since 1980 to maybe 2005 or 7. Since then they might be more similar to the pre-1980 El Ninos (1950-79). Which kind assuming only two kinds, the El Ninos were that created the legend, who knows. I don't. There may be data to support an answer but the one big El Nino that the word was applied to, well after El Nino became a common word in southern California, was the 1982-3 El Nino. But if that one was actually like one that created the word, I don't know. What I do know from lots of experience is were a whole lot of people saying it was, especially the owners of large fish processing plants and harvesting vessels. And that there were a lot of people blaming the 1982 fishing disaster on overfishing. The only thing we know for sure was this El Nino was not the one that gave El Nino its name. And if you want to gauge this El Nino by using southern California fishing it was the damned biggest one anyone under 80 years old can remember. I think we have to keep in mind that El Nino is a regional event. You can't measure it by socals anchovy fishery as we haven't seen many anchovies until recently and the commercial fishery is now very small and the anchovy reduction plants are gone.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 13, 2016 20:22:21 GMT
So the point is if the old definition is not used now and this was a "western centered El Nino" all the discussion about historical El Nino frequency comparisons and intensity discussions are dead. The deep currents bring nutrients and the fish are single season species. So better boats help but all those boats if brought to NZ would not give NZ an Anchovy fisher of scale. Indeed, this is yet another classic example of the climate 'scientist' habit of patching modern metrics and observations onto previously used proxies. The prime example being tree ring proxies for temperatures being patched to modern temperatures and then climate 'scientists' having to 'hide the decline' in the treemometer metric when modern thermometers were showing an increase. Yep association is not the same thing as causation and you don't have causation without association. I don't know if it was fishermen or scientists that brought the first use of El Nino to California. Around the time I first heard it in the late 1960's, we had purse seine boats in San Pedro and San Diego fishing off of Peru. Since the anchovy is an important forage fish for tuna the word could have come from either source as far as I know. And as the study of it evolved it was found to match the SOI (southern oscillation index) that had been independently built in the south Pacific. So the two were merged into ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) though not completely. Whatever semblance it has to climate or specific fisheries might well have been lost. If you ask Theodore he doesn't hold back at all, they are just a bunch of folks pushing numbers around that don't add up to anything concrete.
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