|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 13, 2016 1:29:35 GMT
My interpretation of Astromet's comments on the upcoming global cooling indicates (to me) that he believes that this period will be worse than the cooling period of the 1880s. There has been much talk this year of the extremes of weather that have been experienced (e.g. the Texas and Louisiana floods). Read the sections of this document (link provided by Sigurdur) for the periods 1877-1880 of so, our last great cooling period, and you will see descriptions of some truely extreme weather all over the World. This was a period straddling the transition of a multi-cycle downturn which was not as great as what is being forecast. A true gem of documentary climate literature. Also read the sections on the years 1790-1830 for an enlightening description of the Dalton Minimum.
This, of course, was at a time when ocean temperatures were colder than today ... so the accumulated heat may provide a buffer. But ... we don't know how fast the oceans can cool. I, for one, hope this is all wrong. I've lived in Alaska and have experienced a wee bit of cold. I do not like it. www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdfOne example for the winter of 1794-95 (Early in the Dalton Minimum) Winter of 1794 / 1795 A.D. Scotland was pounded by a massive snowstorm. In one single night, snow fell to the depth of eight or ten feet (2.4-3.0 meters), and in some places the loftiest trees were entirely covered. By this one night’s storm seventeen shepherds lost their lives, and thousands of sheep, besides other animals were destroyed. One farmer alone lost fourteen hundred sheep. After the storm had somewhat disappeared; there were found collected together (by its violence) in one spot, the dead bodies of two men, one woman, forty-five dogs, three horses, nine black cattle, one hundred and eighty hares, and one thousand eight hundred and forty sheep.30 A London newspaper said that on 1 January 1795, the cold was so intense in England; that the River Thames froze over in ten minutes while the tide was turning.1 In 1795 in Paris, France, there were 42 days of frost.58, 80 The cold and snow of 1795 killed the olive trees in France. In Montpellier, it froze continuously from January 15 to 26. The coldest day was on January 17th when the temperature dropped to 15.8° F (-9° C). In Paris, the thermometer was -10.3° F (-23.5° C) on January 25, and there was forty-two consecutive days of frost.79 During the winter, the Seine River in France was frozen at the Bridge “Pont de la Tournelle” in Paris from 25 December 1794 until 28 January 1795. Wagons drove near Liege, Belgium on the Meuse River. The Zuiderzee was frozen and the sound was ice covered.62 There were great floods throughout England caused by the melting snow in February 1795. A great part of the bridges were either damaged or destroyed.41, 43, 56 The winter of 1794-95 in Europe was remarkably long and severe. In Paris, France, there were 42 frost days in succession. On 25 January, there was the greatest cold ever seen in Paris. The thermometer dropped to -10.3° F (-23.5° C). In London, England, the lowest temperature on the same day was 8.0° F (-13.3° C). On the banks of the Rhône River, near Geneva, Switzerland at midnight the temperature fell to 6.8° F (-14° C). The Main, the Scheldt, the Rhine and the Seine rivers were frozen so thick, that they were crossed by wagons and army detachments in several places. Yes Missouriboy, this coming global cooling era will be worse for many reasons, however, the world as it is right now is simply not prepared whatsoever, but will learn a very hard lesson about using ideology as a vehicle to pretend to forecast, rather than to actually forecast. The floods, droughts, famine, and many other effects of global cooling will temper many tens of millions of people worldwide as they have to deal with the onslaught of global cooling.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 21, 2016 22:44:33 GMT
Chipper forecast Theodore. Might be time to can up some of that Midwestern soybean surplus? Return on investment could be quite good? Many farmers are unprepared for what they are about to face Missouriboy. One of the problems has been that with solar-forced global warming since 1980, record crop yields were produced. This, despite the wild and unsubstantiated alarms on how 'global warming' is a threat to the planet, when the exact opposite is true. Global warming is always good for the Earth. But the propaganda has wasted valuable time and resources. Consider this, 16 years ago, a major British newspaper ran an infamous story that had the headline that "snowfalls are now just a thing of the past." Snow will become “a very rare and exciting event”, the article said, quoting Dr. David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit at East Anglia University. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” Of course, the United Kingdom has had several winters of record snowfalls since the year 2000. In 2009, former prime minister Gordon Brown said that we had "50 days to save the world" from climate catastrophe. Then, five years later, in 2014, the French foreign minister declared that we have "500 days to avoid climate chaos." Before that, in 2009, when Barack Obama became president, 'man-made global warming' proponent James Hansen, a self-described climate activist, said we had "four years to save the Earth." Following that, former Colorado senator Timothy Wirth, the head of the UN Foundation, said that Obama’s second term was "the last window of opportunity" to avert a climate catastrophe. I knew both Hanson and Wirth back in my days as a journalist. This was in the late 1980s when the propaganda scheme to convince people that they were the cause of 'global warming' was hatched. Wirth, Hanson, and Al Gore are all complicit in propagating what is literally impossible. Beliefs and false doctrines have everything to do with great mistakes and nothing to do with the cycles of the Sun and planets on the Earth's climate system. All the generalizations and nickel-and-diming of the Earth's climate has been an excuse in futility. The great majority of those engaging in such talk are *not* forecasting - and that is the entire point of understanding how the Earth's climate functions. The ability to make accurate forecasts is a standard of good science. That is what I do as a astrometeorologist. However, those who make false predictions means that their ideological statements are not based on science whatsoever. And for more than two decades now - not a single forecast made by those pushing 'man-made global warming' has come true here in the real world. The record crops under global warming spoiled many farmers in the 1990s and 2000s to expect each year to be better than the last. All that is about to change. And despite the propaganda of 'man-made global warming,'I have been warning farmers for years that preparation for global cooling is not a choice - but a necessity. When it arrives next year (2017) we will then descend into a mini ice age that will dominate the weather of the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 27, 2016 0:25:24 GMT
Large El Nino Preceded Decline into the 1878-1890 Cold Period This is hardly surprising once it is accepted that El Nino's are a cooling event from the Earth's point of view. For those climate 'scientists' who consider only atmospheric temperature of course they are gleefully reporting the rise in atmospheric temperatures as the Pacific radiates its heat content away to space via the atmosphere. The fact that we are not getting a La Nina is bad news as the cloudless period with a La Nina is the heat recharge period as high frequency light from the Sun penetrates deep into the Pacific and Atlantic warming them. If we have a cloudy null period then things will get cold as the oceans will remain cold. A warm blob in the Pacific SST is a radiating blob showing the ocean losing heat. We are probably witnessing the start of the loss of global heat content even while the politicians and their pet climate 'scientists' are getting excited over air temperature. Yet the entire atmospheric heat content is only equivalent to the heat content of the top 3 - 4 meters of the oceans. So seeing the oceans radiating heat is not good news. As global cooling begins in 2017 Nautonnier, the increase in cloudiness will first take place over the oceans and there will be a reflection of sunlight and so a decrease worldwide eventually. I know those particular years as we enter the new climate of global cooling. That 'recharge' period you mentioned is the atmospheric effect of La Nina, but the La Nina I've forecasted is still several years away. Right now, for farmers, in the current market of low commodity prices, declines in farm income and escalating input costs across the farming and ranching industry, it is my assessment that the cost savings from preparation for 2017 into the 2020s, will be significant if done right now through winter 2017. Wheat prices are low now and offer little chance of significant improvement until world stocks are whittled down considerably. There's a good time for some farmers in North America to consider an alternative winter crop. I suggest canola for some regions of the U.S. Winter crops returns is going to be tight in 2016/2017 according to my forecast, but it appears that canola is more likely than wheat to generate positive returns to land, labor and management. Anyway, with the advent of global cooling, it is my view that this is also an an excellent time to get straight in agriculture, its business and management. I figure that at least 27 percent of the opportunities will be in forecasting science, technology, engineering and mathematics with the niche or speciality opportunities rising in foods and biomaterial production and the remaining percentages will be in communication, education and governmental services.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 30, 2016 23:49:08 GMT
Thanks Astro. I know you said it will be a late spring next year. Is it going to cause large yield reductions next year or ease into production problems? I am in the Northern cornbelt. Well, the arrival of global cooling and its weather will affect the entire corn belt, both north and south. This is something I have been forecasting for years with my long-range forecast of global cooling. Far too many farmers are unprepared and have no idea of what is coming because they've been essentially spoiled by the years of solar-forced global warming. On top of that, ever since the acceleration of commodities that I forecast would begin in late 2014 and continue through all of 2015 and into 2016, we can see the effects of this deflation on crop prices. Combined with the arrival of global cooling and the challenges it will bring beginning 2017 and over the next 30+ years, it is essential that farmers make preparations, or suffer. Over half of all field crop acreage in the U.S. is found in the Corn Belt and Northern Plains, so with global cooling on the way that means knowing the specific years and seasons of favorable and unfavorable weather conditions in their particular regions for their farming operations. It is my forecast that the latest 15-year global cooling trend will persist and accelerate as we near the Sun's quiescent phase and that means that crop yields will suffer greatly. As for right now, Yield models of corn and soybeans stabilized this week, as harvest begins to accelerate. With 15 percent of the corn harvested and 10% of the soybeans, it’s likely harvest will accelerate quickly – especially with a good weather forecast. Weather for much of the corn belt is mostly clear now as the rainy front moves to the east coast, so combines can begin to roll over the majority of the Corn Belt. The next wee will be dry throughout most of the Corn Belt, and that will allow combines to get to work. My 8-to-14-day outlook into October shows some rain in the northern Corn Belt, but the rest will remain mostly dry. Temperatures will be above average in much of the Corn Belt (except in the southeast for the next seven days) but thereafter, will warm up a bit against normal temperatures. From what I can see, weekly exports showed a slowdown in soybean shipments at only 14.1 mb for the week that ended September 22nd. Corn was a decent 52.6 mb, and wheat was also a healthy 32.2 mb. But soybean number was disappointing considering the record large crop currently being harvested as we need that strong demand that we've had the last few months. Crop conditions at the end of September 2016 was steady for Corn at 74 percent rated G/E and also steady for soybeans at 73 percent. rated. The yield models were basically unchanged with corn at 178.5 bu/acre (up 0.09 bu) and soybeans at 49.04 bu/acre (down 0.07 bu/acre). Crop development is moving along with corn at 97 percent dented versus 96% normally, and 73% mature versus 64% normally. Only 15 percent of the corn is harvested, which is 4 percent behind the 19% that is normally harvested at this time. Soybeans are 68 percent dropping leaves versus 64% normally, with 10% harvested. Sugar beets are 14 percent harvested vs. 11 percent normally at this time, with 30 percent of winter wheat planted (equal to average) and 8 percent emerged (which is also equal to average.) Topsoil moisture is 76 percent rated adequate/surplus vs. the 59% recorded in 2015, and subsoil is 75% rated adequate/surplus vs. 61 percent last year. Soil moisture levels are still high though. In my view, they're are too high, like in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa which had heavy rains last week. That's going to delay harvest as soils need to dry off before they can support harvest equipment. Overall, crops are developing at what I consider to be a normal and/or slightly ahead of normal pace, as crops are still rated quite high. I estimate that the corn yield this year will average out to about 169 bushels per acre. For the 2016 season I see a record wheat, corn, and soybean crop. This means that with deflation at this time, crop prices will be poor coming out of harvest season. On average, the lows come from October through January, and this year may be no different. Right now, look to continue to target $9 November Soybeans to remove some hedges. As for Corn, the target removing hedges at $2.90 December futures. For the most part, the bottoms can last months as the tops are usually last minute, so it is going to be awhile before crop prices start to move higher.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Oct 6, 2016 17:02:54 GMT
Did someone get the impression that I don't like cold weather? I confess it is a correct reading of my preference, quite similar to my dislike of hot weather. I'm a utopia guy; I enjoyed that time back when the temperatures and climate were perfect and CO2 was just a gas. Well, take Hurricane Matthew for instance. Observe how the hurricane season is being pushed back further into the fall season (Superstorm Sandy was one example) as this is another sign of the encroachment of global cooling.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Oct 6, 2016 21:12:32 GMT
Did someone get the impression that I don't like cold weather? I confess it is a correct reading of my preference, quite similar to my dislike of hot weather. I'm a utopia guy; I enjoyed that time back when the temperatures and climate were perfect and CO2 was just a gas. Well, take Hurricane Matthew for instance. Observe how the hurricane season is being pushed back further into the fall season (Superstorm Sandy was one example) as this is another sign of the encroachment of global cooling. Got nothing to do with climate Astro; it's politics: Sandy & Matthew are Democrats.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Oct 6, 2016 21:58:54 GMT
Well, take Hurricane Matthew for instance. Observe how the hurricane season is being pushed back further into the fall season (Superstorm Sandy was one example) as this is another sign of the encroachment of global cooling. Got nothing to do with climate Astro; it's politics: Sandy & Matthew are Democrats. You sure Ratty? They had their acts unusually together for Democrats!
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Oct 6, 2016 22:22:17 GMT
It's great timing though MOBoy.
|
|
|
Post by gridley on Oct 7, 2016 20:13:45 GMT
Hi AstroMet, what would your general forcast for Western Washington State be for this coming winter?
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on May 29, 2017 22:47:01 GMT
My interpretation of Astromet's comments on the upcoming global cooling indicates (to me) that he believes that this period will be worse than the cooling period of the 1880s. There has been much talk this year of the extremes of weather that have been experienced (e.g. the Texas and Louisiana floods). Read the sections of this document (link provided by Sigurdur) for the periods 1877-1880 of so, our last great cooling period, and you will see descriptions of some truely extreme weather all over the World. This was a period straddling the transition of a multi-cycle downturn which was not as great as what is being forecast. A true gem of documentary climate literature. Also read the sections on the years 1790-1830 for an enlightening description of the Dalton Minimum.
This, of course, was at a time when ocean temperatures were colder than today ... so the accumulated heat may provide a buffer. But ... we don't know how fast the oceans can cool. I, for one, hope this is all wrong. I've lived in Alaska and have experienced a wee bit of cold. I do not like it. www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdfOne example for the winter of 1794-95 (Early in the Dalton Minimum) Winter of 1794 / 1795 A.D. Scotland was pounded by a massive snowstorm. In one single night, snow fell to the depth of eight or ten feet (2.4-3.0 meters), and in some places the loftiest trees were entirely covered. By this one night’s storm seventeen shepherds lost their lives, and thousands of sheep, besides other animals were destroyed. One farmer alone lost fourteen hundred sheep. After the storm had somewhat disappeared; there were found collected together (by its violence) in one spot, the dead bodies of two men, one woman, forty-five dogs, three horses, nine black cattle, one hundred and eighty hares, and one thousand eight hundred and forty sheep.30 A London newspaper said that on 1 January 1795, the cold was so intense in England; that the River Thames froze over in ten minutes while the tide was turning.1 In 1795 in Paris, France, there were 42 days of frost.58, 80 The cold and snow of 1795 killed the olive trees in France. In Montpellier, it froze continuously from January 15 to 26. The coldest day was on January 17th when the temperature dropped to 15.8° F (-9° C). In Paris, the thermometer was -10.3° F (-23.5° C) on January 25, and there was forty-two consecutive days of frost.79 During the winter, the Seine River in France was frozen at the Bridge “Pont de la Tournelle” in Paris from 25 December 1794 until 28 January 1795. Wagons drove near Liege, Belgium on the Meuse River. The Zuiderzee was frozen and the sound was ice covered.62 There were great floods throughout England caused by the melting snow in February 1795. A great part of the bridges were either damaged or destroyed.41, 43, 56 The winter of 1794-95 in Europe was remarkably long and severe. In Paris, France, there were 42 frost days in succession. On 25 January, there was the greatest cold ever seen in Paris. The thermometer dropped to -10.3° F (-23.5° C). In London, England, the lowest temperature on the same day was 8.0° F (-13.3° C). On the banks of the Rhône River, near Geneva, Switzerland at midnight the temperature fell to 6.8° F (-14° C). The Main, the Scheldt, the Rhine and the Seine rivers were frozen so thick, that they were crossed by wagons and army detachments in several places. The next round of global cooling, that is, the next ice age will be just as bad.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Jun 27, 2017 17:12:09 GMT
My interpretation of Astromet's comments on the upcoming global cooling indicates (to me) that he believes that this period will be worse than the cooling period of the 1880s. There has been much talk this year of the extremes of weather that have been experienced (e.g. the Texas and Louisiana floods). Read the sections of this document (link provided by Sigurdur) for the periods 1877-1880 of so, our last great cooling period, and you will see descriptions of some truely extreme weather all over the World. This was a period straddling the transition of a multi-cycle downturn which was not as great as what is being forecast. A true gem of documentary climate literature. Also read the sections on the years 1790-1830 for an enlightening description of the Dalton Minimum.
This, of course, was at a time when ocean temperatures were colder than today ... so the accumulated heat may provide a buffer. But ... we don't know how fast the oceans can cool. I, for one, hope this is all wrong. I've lived in Alaska and have experienced a wee bit of cold. I do not like it. www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdfOne example for the winter of 1794-95 (Early in the Dalton Minimum) Winter of 1794 / 1795 A.D. Scotland was pounded by a massive snowstorm. In one single night, snow fell to the depth of eight or ten feet (2.4-3.0 meters), and in some places the loftiest trees were entirely covered. By this one night’s storm seventeen shepherds lost their lives, and thousands of sheep, besides other animals were destroyed. One farmer alone lost fourteen hundred sheep. After the storm had somewhat disappeared; there were found collected together (by its violence) in one spot, the dead bodies of two men, one woman, forty-five dogs, three horses, nine black cattle, one hundred and eighty hares, and one thousand eight hundred and forty sheep.30 A London newspaper said that on 1 January 1795, the cold was so intense in England; that the River Thames froze over in ten minutes while the tide was turning.1 In 1795 in Paris, France, there were 42 days of frost.58, 80 The cold and snow of 1795 killed the olive trees in France. In Montpellier, it froze continuously from January 15 to 26. The coldest day was on January 17th when the temperature dropped to 15.8° F (-9° C). In Paris, the thermometer was -10.3° F (-23.5° C) on January 25, and there was forty-two consecutive days of frost.79 During the winter, the Seine River in France was frozen at the Bridge “Pont de la Tournelle” in Paris from 25 December 1794 until 28 January 1795. Wagons drove near Liege, Belgium on the Meuse River. The Zuiderzee was frozen and the sound was ice covered.62 There were great floods throughout England caused by the melting snow in February 1795. A great part of the bridges were either damaged or destroyed.41, 43, 56 The winter of 1794-95 in Europe was remarkably long and severe. In Paris, France, there were 42 frost days in succession. On 25 January, there was the greatest cold ever seen in Paris. The thermometer dropped to -10.3° F (-23.5° C). In London, England, the lowest temperature on the same day was 8.0° F (-13.3° C). On the banks of the Rhône River, near Geneva, Switzerland at midnight the temperature fell to 6.8° F (-14° C). The Main, the Scheldt, the Rhine and the Seine rivers were frozen so thick, that they were crossed by wagons and army detachments in several places. The next round of global cooling, that is, the next ice age will be just as bad. Yes, it will Missouriboy, and few are prepared for global cooling.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Jul 6, 2017 21:31:46 GMT
Large El Nino Preceded Decline into the 1878-1890 Cold Period This is hardly surprising once it is accepted that El Nino's are a cooling event from the Earth's point of view. For those climate 'scientists' who consider only atmospheric temperature of course they are gleefully reporting the rise in atmospheric temperatures as the Pacific radiates its heat content away to space via the atmosphere. The fact that we are not getting a La Nina is bad news as the cloudless period with a La Nina is the heat recharge period as high frequency light from the Sun penetrates deep into the Pacific and Atlantic warming them. If we have a cloudy null period then things will get cold as the oceans will remain cold. A warm blob in the Pacific SST is a radiating blob showing the ocean losing heat. We are probably witnessing the start of the loss of global heat content even while the politicians and their pet climate 'scientists' are getting excited over air temperature. Yet the entire atmospheric heat content is only equivalent to the heat content of the top 3 - 4 meters of the oceans. So seeing the oceans radiating heat is not good news. What we are seeing as we enter the new climate regime of global cooling that I've forecast is low level clouds and of course, the torrential rains, heavy snows and cooler and wetter conditions that exist under global cooling. Observe what has been happening on many North American farms of late: host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/farmers-struggling-with-wet-fields-yellowing-crops/article_04f8ed6c-d7fb-5870-a7d2-3d2662130df0.html
|
|