Global Cooling and Turbulence

[missouriboy]

Apr 18, 2017 23:27:26 GMT Ratty said:

Apr 18, 2017 19:38:51 GMT @codewhacker said:

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I find no credible scientific consensus there is any chance of global cooling. Do you? Please direct me to one, just one, University or college or trade school or local mystical bookstore here in the United States that fully supports the concept of global cooling. All I want is one source, that's all I ask. Show me one that actually preaches the world is getting colder.

... coming in late because of a rotational problem, there are plenty of predictions of cooling.

Even at the height of the warming, Don Easterbrook was predicting cooling.   Others are predicting warming .....

These are a few references that I hope haven't been mentioned earlier:

AN URGENT SIGNAL FOR THE COMING ICE AGE

Dark Winter: How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell

Climate Forecasting Methods and Cooling Forecasts - 4 Year Update.

The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

Fluctuating Atlantic … German Experts Say “Things Could Become Very Bitter For The IPCC Forecast Models”!

Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades

Deep Oceans Are Cooling Amidst A Sea of Modeling Uncertainty: New Research on Ocean Heat Content

I particularly liked the forecast presented in number three on your list ... well explained and easy to follow ... and document.

I don't know if 'the Iceman' cometh or not.   But the more I look at the trends in the extremes, the more I can visualize his chubby mate, tuning up her harmonica and gazing longingly at the microphone.  

If Columbus had waited for 'consensus', the World would still be flat.  Consensus is what old scientists fall back on when their brains and their motivation are functionally dead.

[Ratty]

Apr 19, 2017 5:05:11 GMT missouriboy said:

[ Snip ]
If Columbus had waited for 'consensus', the World would still be flat.  Consensus is what old scientists fall back on when their brains and their motivation are functionally dead.

You have it back to front, Missouri: The consensus is with the young - instant gratification rules. It's we old scientists (and others) who don't subscribe. I have spoken ....

[sigurdur]

Age does result in being a bit cantankerous at times. Too much exposure to snake oil will do that.

[norpage]

Apr 16, 2017 22:23:20 GMT mralex said:

Some of you might know, forum member Astromet has written a very well thought out analysis on how Global Cooling will threaten air travel by intense turbulence:

Global Cooling - 2017-2053
'Airline Flights Experiencing More Extreme Turbulence
The Reasons Why'
by astromet
This autumn I am preparing several years of climate & weather forecasts for farmers worldwide.
It's a very busy time for me as I am working on 5-year forecasts as global cooling sets into gear in 2017.
For months now, I have been swamped with questions as to what is happening to the Earth's climate as extreme weather and incidents continue to make headlines. I will answer that question in this post.
First, an explanation of a recent event that has been becoming more common:
Two weeks ago, on August 31, 2016, United Airlines Flight #880 was transporting more than 207 passengers on a transAtlantic flight from Houston, Texas to London’s Heathrow airport when it was suddenly battered by turbulence so severe that it threw some passengers not wearing their seatbelts up to the cabin's ceiling.
The aircraft, a Boeing 767-300, had to make an emergency landing at Shannon airport, Ireland and injured passengers were taken to University Hospital, Limerick. Twenty-three people were injured and all the passengers said that it was a terrifying experience.
“We were flying along as smooth as can be and then were just slapped massively from the top as if someone had torpedoed us,” one passenger said.
Another passenger told NBC News, “Things flew all over the cabin and kitchen area. One attendant cracked the side of her head and was bleeding.”
The passenger added that his own shoulders were “really, really hurting from grabbing on to the arm rest during those altitude declines.”
Back in 2009, I forecasted that the jet streams of the Earth were shifting. In the United States alone it is estimated that sudden air turbulence costs more than $500+ million a year.
The transition to global cooling is the cause and it is not a surprise to me that air passenger flights would experience increased extreme turbulence.
At heights of around 10 to 12 kilometers (6-7 miles) which is a typical cruising altitude for modern passenger jets, the jet stream wind patterns and sudden temperature changes are the causes of what has been going on higher in the Earth's atmosphere.
This major shift in atmospherics is part and parcel of the climate transition to global cooling that I have been forecasting as the normal patterns of the jet streams is changing from a zonal flow to a 'meridional' flow.
It is an unstable airflow that produces clear-air turbulence. Often, there are no visual clues to give pilots advanced warning – then suddenly an aircraft is jolted with considerable force.
Extreme turbulence of this severity is experienced increasingly because of the climate transition to global cooling caused by the activity of the Sun and the alteration of the Earth's jet streams.
For instance, I am sure that climate scientists have been noticing the unusual pattern changes of the quasi-biennial oscillation.
On average, the equatorial eastward and westward winds alternate about every 28 to 29 months, so they have been easy to predict.
But not any longer.
The changes are caused by the activity of the Sun, which affects the upper atmosphere of the stratopause, which has been warming because polar air is being forced to migrate further south by the shifting of the jet streams in the northern hemisphere.
In the United States alone, the delays and disruptions from turbulence already cost more than $500 million a year - and all the reports show that incidents are becoming more frequent.
All the talk of human-emissions of carbon dioxide and 'man-made global warming' being the cause is simply silly, but shows just how little those who say such things know what is actually happening in the real world.
Many airlines worldwide are reporting a steady rise in turbulence.
The extreme turbulence is because the polar jet streams are changing from a 'zonal' pattern flow to ‘meridional’ pattern flow.
And this is exactly what I had predicted would happen as the climate transition to global cooling neared closer and closer.
These shifts in the jet streams from zonal to meridional flows also delivers all dense cold air from higher latitudes down to the moisture-filled atmosphere of the troposphere and into mid-latitudes.
It is going to increasingly become the main driver of severe weather, extreme turbulence and violent storms in the new climate regime of global cooling.
'WHAT IS HAPPENING?'
As the Sun settles into its quiescent phase, or its Grand Minimum there is a deep reduction in sunspots, revealing a 'blank Sun.'
Now, because of this, the ultraviolet (UV) radiation that the Sun plummets.
The decline of heating of the Earth's stratopause, its upper atmosphere sees temperatures there rise above freezing. (This is why the arctic has been warming, not because of 'man-made global warming.)
Within the stratopause, temperatures rise and so all the frozen moisture evaporates then falls outside its reaction zone.
The moisture is super cooled to a level where ice crystals called 'diamond dust' forms in the polar atmosphere.
Diamond dust are microscopic ice crystals shaped in the form of hexagons.
The ice crystals are highly reflective and refracts sunlight like a prism.
Because diamond dust is super-light, these ice crystals can stay afloat for months in the atmosphere as pockets of very cold and dense air develop underneath them.
Diamond dust causes major temperature gradients which fuels the polar vortex to isolate and lock extremely cold air to the polar regions of the Earth.
However, as the Sun's output weakens, and its ultraviolet radiation declines, the area in the high atmosphere where diamond dust forms in the stratopause also declines and shrinks.
So these ice crystals, along with all that cold dense air circulating inside the polar region diminish, and the Arctic warms up as the polar vortex deforms.
It allows the dense cold air to migrate, further south, and into the lower moist atmosphere and mid-latitudes – where the majority of the Earth’s population lives.
The Sun’s weakening state causes the polar jet streams to change from a ‘zonal’ pattern flow to a ‘meridional’ flow.
A meridional pattern jet flow has sharper edges with more vorticity and is responsible for altering the jet stream patterns.
The extreme turbulence is a result of the altered jet stream, especially in the northern hemisphere.
The meridional flow also causes blocking ridges that delivers colder air and temperatures; along with heavy snowfall.
This meridional pattern is going to become the primary driver of extreme turbulence and severe weather systems of blasting storms during the era of global cooling.
It is going to become much more difficult for conventional forecasters to predict the weather even in the short-range with the meridional pattern flows.
The weather will develop quickly and deliver more precipitation of rain and snow, along with higher winds and above-and-below average temperatures than in a zonal pattern.
I am used to medium and long-range advanced forecasting based on the changes to the jet streams however, because once you know what the climate conditions are, then it is a simple matter to forecast its resulting weather.
Those flying should be aware that air travel is going to become more dangerous because of the shift of the jet streams to a more pronounced meridional wind flow at sharp angles.
This meridional flow which also will deliver more strong storms in the new era of global cooling that begins in 2017.

If this is true it will make air travel much more dangerous. Also my parents who has a few friends that works as pilots for Air New Zealand and mainly fly the Auckland to Hong Kong or Los Angeles route have been mentioning that turbulence has been getting intense and also it seems in the Southern Hemisphere something is up.

[norpage]

TRUMP and PRUITT get the SCIENCE RIGHT - NATURAL CYCLES DRIVE CLIMATE CHANGE.
Climate is controlled by natural cycles. Earth is just past the 2004+/- peak of a millennial cycle and the current cooling trend will likely continue until the next Little Ice Age minimum at about 2650.See the Energy and Environment paper at journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0958305X16686488
and an earlier accessible blog version at climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html
Here is the abstract for convenience :
“ABSTRACT
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and, more importantly, 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver is discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak -inversion point – in the RSS temperature trend in about 2004. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.””

[acidohm]

Apr 18, 2017 19:38:51 GMT @codewhacker said:

Apr 18, 2017 0:34:52 GMT Ratty said:

I know.

I find no credible scientific consensus there is any chance of global cooling. Do you? Please direct me to one, just one, University or college or trade school or local mystical bookstore here in the United States that fully supports the concept of global cooling. All I want is one source, that's all I ask. Show me one that actually preaches the world is getting colder.

Would this be more acceptable Code?

climatechangereconsidered.org/about-nipcc/

Part of the problem with finding a 'consensus' on cooling is the establishment does not like 'off message' activity whether it's publications or even research.

I had a conversation with a friend recently where i explained the issues facing those who wished to research and publish non-warming science. His wife who studies RE at post grad level became interested and explained how in her field you have to massage the egos of the powers that be by including flattering comments and everything has to be along the right lines to get published.

So it's not a great stretch to see how suppressed cooling ideas are.

But this has all been explained before...

[missouriboy]

Apr 19, 2017 6:07:24 GMT Ratty said:

Apr 19, 2017 5:05:11 GMT missouriboy said:

[ Snip ]
If Columbus had waited for 'consensus', the World would still be flat.  Consensus is what old scientists fall back on when their brains and their motivation are functionally dead.

You have it back to front, Missouri: The consensus is with the young - instant gratification rules. It's we old scientists (and others) who don't subscribe. I have spoken ....

With due deference to age Ratty  , I must disagree.  This one lies squarely on the backs of 'the Boomers' (my generation), who, as with so many other things, found a way to profit from another self-induced illusion (I'm being  generous).  They have built and canned the paradigm and sold it by indoctrinating the following generation (the accomplices or useful idiots, depending on your viewpoint).  It will largely be up to a new generation to totally smash and disassemble the trash that they (we ) have spawned.

[nonentropic]

I think there is a belief gene.

If as is happening there is a fall in say christian adherence a substitute needs to be brought in to replace it. CAGW is perfect.

The one weakness I can see with this theory is that when you look at people in general virtually all they do or hold close to them is based on non rational processes.
Watch people drive or walk or do the dishes and its all non logical repeated steps.

I am an agnostic but can recognize belief in some of my actions and thoughts.

[AstroMet]

Apr 17, 2017 2:23:13 GMT @codewhacker said:

"This meridional flow which also will deliver more strong storms in the new era of global cooling that begins in 2017."

Rubbish

Code, you know, it would be very nice if you would quit playing contrarian and insulting the intelligence (especially mine) on global cooling, or would you prefer to show how you are able to forecast based on your expertise?

The Earth has had ice ages before (look it up) and quit with these stupid one-liners (rubbish) and the rest of your comments based on absolutely one thing and one thing only - you're opinion (which is hardly valid.)

It is a fact that the Earth's jet streams have been changing and causing more meridional flow than zonal, and I had forecasted this back in 2009 and repeated it in 2010 as well.

The fact is that as the Sun enters its quiescent phase, the next mini ice age will be underway.

[birder]

Apr 18, 2017 23:56:06 GMT Ratty said:

We are in an ice age and it's likely to get cooler ..... maybe sometime soon.

I used to be able to see your photos but not anymore, any ideas why?

[acidohm]

Me too Ratty!!! Thought it was just me.....

[Ratty]

Apr 19, 2017 21:22:11 GMT acidohm said:

Me too Ratty!!! Thought it was just me.....

Anyone else? Everyone?

[missouriboy]

Apr 19, 2017 21:59:52 GMT Ratty said:

Apr 19, 2017 21:22:11 GMT acidohm said:

Me too Ratty!!! Thought it was just me.....

Anyone else? Everyone?

Me too!  Just square blobs.

[Ratty]

Apr 19, 2017 18:31:57 GMT @codewhacker said:

[ Snip ]
I agree. At church is a person who is married to an actual climate scientist. This person won't even discuss issues with me for example when I brought up a simple article in Forbes I was told Forbes makes stuff up.

That's the standard response: "<Insert_source_here> is a denier website."

End of discussion. No consideration of any of the content, even if the 'denier' website has quoted scientific research or referred directly to published work.

[Ratty]

Apr 19, 2017 22:12:27 GMT missouriboy said:

Apr 19, 2017 21:59:52 GMT Ratty said:

Anyone else? Everyone?

Me too!  Just square blobs.

I've been using Dropbox references which changed a month or so ago. Naturally, I can see them because I have permission. Will look into it .....