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Post by sigurdur on May 5, 2017 4:11:03 GMT
Well, the wheat market was down 0.14 today. Corn down 7. The thing David is forgetting is the record large wheat and corn stocks on hand. He is correct that the funds have large short positions, but they seem in no hurry to buy back their shorts In regards to cattle, the rise cleaned out shorts, but the downdraft was extensive today. The draw down of those stocks should be good news for farmers ultimately ... at least for those with the capital to stay in the game. Any idea on what proportion of a N American production year those stocks represent? Roughly? There are 3 classes of wheat. Hard red spring, which is not a winter wheat. This is the highest quality for milling and baking. There is abt 2/3 year supply on hand. It is grown in the northern states and Canada. Hard red winter is grown further south. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are the major producers. There is over a years supply on hand. Soft Red winter is the least quality wheat. It is used mostly in pastries because it produces a sticky style dough. Over a years supply on hand. World wide all classes of wheat is at approx 268 million ton. If memory serves me, this is approx 10 months of usage. Current stocks, as a percentage of usage are at record levels.
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Post by glennkoks on May 6, 2017 1:29:35 GMT
Sigurdur,
You are one of the reasons I read this forum. An oasis of knowledge! It looks like we are still in good shape with worldwide supplies of food. But if the forecasts made by Astromet, Adapt 2030 over on youtube and others come to pass the surpluses would shrink rapidly. If those who have been forecasting another LIA are correct 10 months usage could come quickly. I am very skeptical of anyones ability to forecast the weather long term. With that being said 2017 has been the target by the for mentioned as the beginning.
As history has shown us a lot can happen with the climate in the span of a decade. When I was just a wee lad in school they taught us that the ice ages were caused by tiny changes over long periods of time. We now know that abrupt climate change was much more common.
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Post by missouriboy on May 6, 2017 3:16:23 GMT
I believe in cycles. Nature is full of them. They are obvious in the serious climate literature even if their timing and magnitude are still in dispute ... and even if we are not certain (in a scientific sense) what drives them. More and more of the data are pointing to cooling and an associated increase in weather variance. The direction of change is becoming apparent. The magnitude and causes remain to be discovered, together with the length. But what a time to be alive, Imagine what climate knowledge will look like in twenty years. Just like all the other insurance I carry, it makes sense to be prepared. A years supply of food and essential items are good, along with a location and ability to grow some of your own commodities, heat your own living space, cook your own food. If you have a good location and the ability to work, the rest of the items are not really that expensive. Mostly research and practice. The stories my father told me about living on the farm, growing and preserving their own food, recycling everything are not that far removed in time. Most people have either forgotten them or never learned them. I'm not going to become a fanatical prepper ... but I don't think I will regret hedging my bets ... no matter what happens. But constructing that damned cistern is giving me fits. Tough / cold resistant small garden planting suggestions: onions, garlic, jerusalem artichokes (heirloom if you can find them). The artichokes are a crisp, nutty-flavored potato substitute that will spread like crazy. And did I mention the beautiful flowers. Other cold-hardy winter veggies www.motherofahubbard.com/10-vegetables-more-cold-hardy-than-kale/A Word of Caution About Growing Sunchokescommonsensehome.com/before-you-plant-sunchokes/ But you'll never go hungry.
“Easy to grow” and “disease-free through heat and drought” are code words for “You will Never Get Rid of this Plant!” When I first planted sunchokes, I skimmed over the note in the seed catalog that said “they will spread and may be invasive”. I planted my tubers late in spring, in one corner of a garden bed. There were nine rather wrinkled little roots, and I didn't think they would all survive. Not only did they survive, they thrived. We tried to harvest the whole patch that first year, but must have missed a few. The next spring they were back, and they were spreading. We tried to keep up eating them, but the fall was muddy and we couldn't get into harvest. By the third season, we had the lovely thicket of 12 foot tall flowers you see at the post. As I was digging them in fall, I tossed some damaged roots off into the tall grass away from the garden. Sunchokes Spread from the Smallest Bit of Tuber Fast forward to spring. Those root bits haphazardly thrown into the weeds – they've now sprouted into plants. There's a new sunchoke colony. I decide I need to get rid of some of the sunchokes, and invite anyone who would like some to come dig them. Two friends come over. Four different adults attack the patch. Bushels and bushels of sunchokes are hauled out of the garden. The patch size is reduced roughly by half to start the spring. Time passes. The bed is worked up again by my boys. They remove more sunchokes from the same area that the adults have already gone over. Before I put the transplants in, I work over the same area one more time. THERE ARE STILL SUNCHOKES COMING UP! This area has been gone over by four adults and two kids, and there are still sunchokes hiding in the dirt.
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Post by sigurdur on May 6, 2017 3:28:09 GMT
I knocked ours out. (Cistern)
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Post by missouriboy on May 6, 2017 4:00:56 GMT
I knocked ours out. (Cistern) Problems?
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Post by sigurdur on May 6, 2017 11:18:32 GMT
I knocked ours out. (Cistern) Problems? We got rural water. Where I live, the mineralization of water is extremely high. A visitor would not handle it well, and even living here it was not always tolerated well.
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Post by Ratty on May 6, 2017 11:56:22 GMT
Sig, I live in Oz where everything is pure and clean. Why is a cistern a problem?
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Post by sigurdur on May 6, 2017 12:00:53 GMT
The cistern was in the basement and took a lot of room. The wife thought we needed more playroom for the kids. Of course, she wasn't the one running the jackhammer and hauling all those cement chunks out the door.
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Post by Ratty on May 6, 2017 12:18:39 GMT
The cistern was in the basement and took a lot of room. The wife thought we needed more playroom for the kids. Of course, she wasn't the one running the jackhammer and hauling all those cement chunks out the door. Understand. YOU were wrong ..... again.
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Post by missouriboy on May 6, 2017 14:16:21 GMT
The cistern was in the basement and took a lot of room. The wife thought we needed more playroom for the kids. Of course, she wasn't the one running the jackhammer and hauling all those cement chunks out the door. Understand. YOU were wrong ..... again. Back in my younger days, I knew a young lady who had a favorite quote ... Women have many faults but men have only two. Everything they say and everything they do.
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Post by missouriboy on May 6, 2017 14:21:28 GMT
Sig, I live in Oz where everything is pure and clean. Why is a cistern a problem? The yellow brick road is wearing out from all that 'joyful skipping'.
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Post by mralex on May 9, 2017 18:48:17 GMT
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