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Post by acidohm on Oct 21, 2017 23:28:48 GMT
Well, what to expect??
Personally, id expect a meridional kinda winter. Solar activity is low, qbo is easterly, Siberian snow has developed nicely.
What do the models say....
Zonal, atlantic driven warmth in Europe, all winter.
It is very mild in UK right now, record breaking even.
I think this winter may really test the computers, the more I learn, the more I see known gaps in the inputs.
It's gonna be interesting!!
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 22, 2017 14:48:43 GMT
Well, what to expect?? Personally, id expect a meridional kinda winter. Solar activity is low, qbo is easterly, Siberian snow has developed nicely. What do the models say.... Zonal, atlantic driven warmth in Europe, all winter. It is very mild in UK right now, record breaking even. I think this winter may really test the computers, the more I learn, the more I see known gaps in the inputs. It's gonna be interesting!! The last few winters have been "meridional". So if this one follows the pattern there will be arctic outbreaks further south and warmer air further north depending on which side of loopy jet stream you are on. Last year it was bitter cold in Eastern Europe down into Greece and relatively warm on the U.S. East Coast. Two years ago Boston was a giant ice cube and Eastern Europe was relatively mild. So if you subscribe to AGW there was plenty of warmth you could point out. And if you were a denier there were plenty of cold outbreaks...
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 22, 2017 15:50:01 GMT
Well, what to expect?? Personally, id expect a meridional kinda winter. Solar activity is low, qbo is easterly, Siberian snow has developed nicely. What do the models say.... Zonal, atlantic driven warmth in Europe, all winter. It is very mild in UK right now, record breaking even. I think this winter may really test the computers, the more I learn, the more I see known gaps in the inputs. It's gonna be interesting!! The last few winters have been "meridional". So if this one follows the pattern there will be arctic outbreaks further south and warmer air further north depending on which side of loopy jet stream you are on. Last year it was bitter cold in Eastern Europe down into Greece and relatively warm on the U.S. East Coast. Two years ago Boston was a giant ice cube and Eastern Europe was relatively mild. So if you subscribe to AGW there was plenty of warmth you could point out. And if you were a denier there were plenty of cold outbreaks... To which of course should be added - meridonal patterns are exporting heat to the poles and importing cold air from the poles. Add to that the Sun is now in a relatively quiet mode So there does not seem to be the energy input to the system to replace that radiated by the meridonal pattern, and this may continue for some time till SC25. Each successive meridonal winter starts from a lower energy state; to me this seems a recipe for a continual cooling.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 22, 2017 16:58:25 GMT
This is a list of the 25 wettest septembers in the UK since about 1900 (not exactly sure, I have asked...)
18 25 28 36 45 46 50 54 57 58 62 65 67 74 75 76 81 82 83 84 92 95 99 2000 2017.
Notice the concentration of these during the '40-'70 cooling period. Also note every one of our record winter follows one of these dates.
A re-analysis of 500mbr pressures for December to February from these years produces an average scenario with a strong cold signal.
This is a European experience rather then US in afraid, apologies to all those across the pond,
, or on the other side of the planet π
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Post by mondeoman on Oct 22, 2017 18:18:29 GMT
Thatβs an interesting list, what a sensible explanation for the gap between 2000 and 2017?
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Post by acidohm on Oct 22, 2017 18:28:15 GMT
Global warming π
ππππ
π€£π€£ππ
Edit: oh, sorry, I see you said sensible....
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 22, 2017 18:56:41 GMT
This is a list of the 25 wettest septembers in the UK since about 1900 (not exactly sure, I have asked...) 18 25 28 36 45 46 50 54 57 58 62 65 67 74 75 76 81 82 83 84 92 95 99 2000 2017. Notice the concentration of these during the '40-'70 cooling period. Also note every one of our record winter follows one of these dates. A re-analysis of 500mbr pressures for December to February from these years produces an average scenario with a strong cold signal. This is a European experience rather then US in afraid, apologies to all those across the pond, , or on the other side of the planet π Data questions ... Monthly precipitation data source? 500 mb pressure re-analysis data source? What happened in September 2009?
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Post by acidohm on Oct 22, 2017 19:33:28 GMT
This is a list of the 25 wettest septembers in the UK since about 1900 (not exactly sure, I have asked...) 18 25 28 36 45 46 50 54 57 58 62 65 67 74 75 76 81 82 83 84 92 95 99 2000 2017. Notice the concentration of these during the '40-'70 cooling period. Also note every one of our record winter follows one of these dates. A re-analysis of 500mbr pressures for December to February from these years produces an average scenario with a strong cold signal. This is a European experience rather then US in afraid, apologies to all those across the pond, , or on the other side of the planet π Data questions ... Monthly precipitation data source? 500 mb pressure re-analysis data source? What happened in September 2009?Β Β Precip, don't know, will find out Re-analysis..jma, I posted it in response to your request for info on historic jetstream influence on southern latitudes ref snow in Saudi? I'll double check ref 2009... Nope, 09/10 not there....
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Post by acidohm on Oct 22, 2017 20:59:08 GMT
September 2009 was dry...
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Post by Ratty on Oct 22, 2017 22:16:26 GMT
[ Snip ] This is a European experience rather then US in afraid, apologies to all those across the pond, , or on the other side of the planet π No need to apologise, Acid. It's always interesting to see what's happening on the other side. Did you see that the Aussie women cricketers won an exciting match ** against the English girls in Brisbane, just up the road from me? ** YES, North America, cricket can be exciting.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 22, 2017 22:20:57 GMT
[ Snip ] I'll double check ref 2009... Nope, 09/10 not there.... Have you asked Phil Jones if he has the figures?
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 22, 2017 23:47:50 GMT
[ Snip ] This is a European experience rather then US in afraid, apologies to all those across the pond, , or on the other side of the planet π No need to apologise, Acid. It's always interesting to see what's happening on the other side. Did you see that the Aussie women cricketers won an exciting match ** against the English girls in Brisbane, just up the road from me? ** YES, North America, cricket can be exciting. Over here they just 'chirp' all night, Right now they're moving in for the winter,
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Post by Ratty on Oct 22, 2017 23:52:53 GMT
Try to be serious, Missiouri! Cricket is the sport they play in Heaven.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 23, 2017 1:31:26 GMT
Well, what to expect?? Personally, id expect a meridional kinda winter. Solar activity is low, qbo is easterly, Siberian snow has developed nicely. What do the models say.... Zonal, atlantic driven warmth in Europe, all winter. It is very mild in UK right now, record breaking even. I think this winter may really test the computers, the more I learn, the more I see known gaps in the inputs. It's gonna be interesting!! The last few winters have been "meridional". So if this one follows the pattern there will be arctic outbreaks further south and warmer air further north depending on which side of loopy jet stream you are on. Last year it was bitter cold in Eastern Europe down into Greece and relatively warm on the U.S. East Coast. Two years ago Boston was a giant ice cube and Eastern Europe was relatively mild. So if you subscribe to AGW there was plenty of warmth you could point out. And if you were a denier there were plenty of cold outbreaks... Not denier Glenn, a realist
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 23, 2017 1:32:23 GMT
Try to be serious, Missiouri! Cricket is the sport they play in Heaven. On the Aussies side
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