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Post by missouriboy on Feb 11, 2019 3:48:40 GMT
Look under thread Seismic Activity And Solar Cycles page 28 to end. There are a few posts there on the effects of Krakatoa. Not as great perhaps as commonly believed/expected.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 11, 2019 4:57:08 GMT
Short term effect. There have been papers that try and tease decadal effects but they are pretty trashy.
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Post by flearider on Feb 11, 2019 8:39:27 GMT
Short term effect. There have been papers that try and tease decadal effects but they are pretty trashy. but then again during a min event all you need is short term ..temps on the way down or at minimum and bang another .5-1 deg .. yeah .. could just flip us into an ice age ..depends on how big of an eruption it was ..
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 11, 2019 10:19:34 GMT
Short term effect. There have been papers that try and tease decadal effects but they are pretty trashy. but then again during a min event all you need is short term ..temps on the way down or at minimum and bang another .5-1 deg .. yeah .. could just flip us into an ice age ..depends on how big of an eruption it was .. It also depends where and when it is. The main solar input into the Earth is the equator between the latitudes of the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. So a volcano around the equator would have the most effect Especially if it were to take place at the time of a La Nina and prevent the Pacific recharging its energy. So if next year as an expected large La Nina starts if we get an Indonesian volcano erupt that blocks incoming solar energy from the mid-Pacific and we are still in a Solar minimum the line up of effects could cause a noticeable drop. One of these on its own does not appear to make an impact a lot more than the normal noise in the atmospheric temperatures. Comes from having a climate system that is a coupled non-linear chaotic system of chaotic systems.
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Post by fatjohn1408 on Feb 11, 2019 10:37:33 GMT
but then again during a min event all you need is short term ..temps on the way down or at minimum and bang another .5-1 deg .. yeah .. could just flip us into an ice age ..depends on how big of an eruption it was .. It also depends where and when it is. The main solar input into the Earth is the equator between the latitudes of the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. So a volcano around the equator would have the most effect Especially if it were to take place at the time of a La Nina and prevent the Pacific recharging its energy. So if next year as an expected large La Nina starts if we get an Indonesian volcano erupt that blocks incoming solar energy from the mid-Pacific and we are still in a Solar minimum the line up of effects could cause a noticeable drop. One of these on its own does not appear to make an impact a lot more than the normal noise in the atmospheric temperatures. Comes from having a climate system that is a coupled non-linear chaotic system of chaotic systems. What if it happens now at northern latitudes and causes the arctic sea ice extent to hit a peak 1 month later than usual and a couple million km^2 more then usual? That would be a whole lot of sunlight that gets reflected in spring, early summer.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 11, 2019 11:48:50 GMT
It also depends where and when it is. The main solar input into the Earth is the equator between the latitudes of the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. So a volcano around the equator would have the most effect Especially if it were to take place at the time of a La Nina and prevent the Pacific recharging its energy. So if next year as an expected large La Nina starts if we get an Indonesian volcano erupt that blocks incoming solar energy from the mid-Pacific and we are still in a Solar minimum the line up of effects could cause a noticeable drop. One of these on its own does not appear to make an impact a lot more than the normal noise in the atmospheric temperatures. Comes from having a climate system that is a coupled non-linear chaotic system of chaotic systems. What if it happens now at northern latitudes and causes the arctic sea ice extent to hit a peak 1 month later than usual and a couple million km^2 more then usual? That would be a whole lot of sunlight that gets reflected in spring, early summer. The angle of insolation at the poles means that the reflectivity of water and ice are not significantly different so it may not have a large effect on albedo. However, if the jetstream was latitudinal and the polar vortex as distorted then the aerosols may get distributed widely and may have more effect.
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 28, 2019 17:29:57 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 2, 2019 13:29:43 GMT
I posted this animation of the moving North Pole in the picture thread too. I had forgotten that we were discussing it here (I still remember a lot more than I forget). The field map is much more symmetrical about the wandering pole now than in the past according to this.
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Post by Ratty on Mar 2, 2019 23:58:59 GMT
I posted this animation of the moving North Pole in the picture thread too. I had forgotten that we were discussing it here (I still remember a lot more than I forget). The field map is much more symmetrical about the wandering pole now than in the past according to this. There isn't much good news on that site, Blue. Mediterranean hurricanes expected to increase in strength by end of century
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 3, 2019 3:14:23 GMT
Short term effect. There have been papers that try and tease decadal effects but they are pretty trashy. but then again during a min event all you need is short term ..temps on the way down or at minimum and bang another .5-1 deg .. yeah .. could just flip us into an ice age ..depends on how big of an eruption it was .. Here are some references to the 536 AD event. Probably not much quantitative evidence, but the folk tales sound bad. Contemporary reports identified by Stothers and Rampino included Michael the Syrian, who wrote:
"[T]he sun became dark and its darkness lasted for one and a half years [...] Each day it shone for about four hours and still this light was only a feeble shadow [...] the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes."
John of Ephesus related much the same events. Prokopios, who lived in both Africa and Italy at the time, said:
"For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to shed."
An anonymous Syrian chronicler wrote:
"[T]he sun began to be darkened by day and the moon by night, while the ocean was tumultuous with spray, from the 24th of March in this year till the 24th of June in the following year..."
The following winter in Mesopotamia was so bad that "from the large and unwonted quantity of snow the birds perished."www.thoughtco.com/dust-veil-environmental-disaster-in-europe-171628www.earthmagazine.org/article/aag-eruption-el-salvadors-ilopango-explains-ad-536-coolingwww.iceagenow.info/el-salvador-eruption-in-a-d-536-triggered-extreme-global-cooling/www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/sixth-century-misery-tied-not-one-two-volcanic-eruptions-180955858/www.nexusnewsfeed.com/article/ancient-mysteries/volcanic-eruption-that-blocked-out-the-sun-for-18-months-in-536-ad/
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 3, 2019 12:39:28 GMT
but then again during a min event all you need is short term ..temps on the way down or at minimum and bang another .5-1 deg .. yeah .. could just flip us into an ice age ..depends on how big of an eruption it was .. Here are some references to the 536 AD event. Probably not much quantitative evidence, but the folk tales sound bad. Contemporary reports identified by Stothers and Rampino included Michael the Syrian, who wrote:
"[T]he sun became dark and its darkness lasted for one and a half years [...] Each day it shone for about four hours and still this light was only a feeble shadow [...] the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes."
John of Ephesus related much the same events. Prokopios, who lived in both Africa and Italy at the time, said:
"For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to shed."
An anonymous Syrian chronicler wrote:
"[T]he sun began to be darkened by day and the moon by night, while the ocean was tumultuous with spray, from the 24th of March in this year till the 24th of June in the following year..."
The following winter in Mesopotamia was so bad that "from the large and unwonted quantity of snow the birds perished."www.thoughtco.com/dust-veil-environmental-disaster-in-europe-171628www.earthmagazine.org/article/aag-eruption-el-salvadors-ilopango-explains-ad-536-coolingwww.iceagenow.info/el-salvador-eruption-in-a-d-536-triggered-extreme-global-cooling/www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/sixth-century-misery-tied-not-one-two-volcanic-eruptions-180955858/www.nexusnewsfeed.com/article/ancient-mysteries/volcanic-eruption-that-blocked-out-the-sun-for-18-months-in-536-ad/A single high VEI event would not have an 18 month effect on visible light. It sounds more like a continual high VEI eruption that lasted for at least (from the times above) 9 months. There must be some geographic evidence for that type of eruption. Anyone been able to find that kind of volcano or even a large caldera like Yellowstone. An almost one year eruption that could darken the skies will not be a simple volcano.
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 3, 2019 12:45:45 GMT
Here are some references to the 536 AD event. Probably not much quantitative evidence, but the folk tales sound bad. Contemporary reports identified by Stothers and Rampino included Michael the Syrian, who wrote:
"[T]he sun became dark and its darkness lasted for one and a half years [...] Each day it shone for about four hours and still this light was only a feeble shadow [...] the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes."
John of Ephesus related much the same events. Prokopios, who lived in both Africa and Italy at the time, said:
"For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to shed."
An anonymous Syrian chronicler wrote:
"[T]he sun began to be darkened by day and the moon by night, while the ocean was tumultuous with spray, from the 24th of March in this year till the 24th of June in the following year..."
The following winter in Mesopotamia was so bad that "from the large and unwonted quantity of snow the birds perished."www.thoughtco.com/dust-veil-environmental-disaster-in-europe-171628www.earthmagazine.org/article/aag-eruption-el-salvadors-ilopango-explains-ad-536-coolingwww.iceagenow.info/el-salvador-eruption-in-a-d-536-triggered-extreme-global-cooling/www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/sixth-century-misery-tied-not-one-two-volcanic-eruptions-180955858/www.nexusnewsfeed.com/article/ancient-mysteries/volcanic-eruption-that-blocked-out-the-sun-for-18-months-in-536-ad/A single high VEI event would not have an 18 month effect on visible light. It sounds more like a continual high VEI eruption that lasted for at least (from the times above) 9 months. There must be some geographic evidence for that type of eruption. Anyone been able to find that kind of volcano or even a large caldera like Yellowstone. An almost one year eruption that could darken the skies will not be a simple volcano. Theories abound. Here’s one: www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/sixth-century-misery-tied-not-one-two-volcanic-eruptions-180955858/Others believe Krakatoa was the culprit. I think it was very, very low CO2 🤓
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Post by IB DaMann on Mar 10, 2019 13:41:38 GMT
New member “jopo” posted a link in the “Antarctic” thread that contains this site as a source: www.plateclimatology.comAn interesting work that goes far beyond the aresols of explosive volcanoes. A lot of parameters that are missing from the GCMs. The whole idea of a global climate is a contradiction in terms. There are millions of climates all over the planet. One thing we know is that heart's active geology makes the ocean more alkaline, which is why the average ocean pH is about 8.3, give or take a wide margin of error.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 10, 2019 14:29:50 GMT
New member “jopo” posted a link in the “Antarctic” thread that contains this site as a source: www.plateclimatology.comAn interesting work that goes far beyond the aresols of explosive volcanoes. A lot of parameters that are missing from the GCMs. The whole idea of a global climate is a contradiction in terms. There are millions of climates all over the planet. One thing we know is that heart's active geology makes the ocean more alkaline, which is why the average ocean pH is about 8.3, give or take a wide margin of error. It's merely a matter of scale. In a river, every eddy is a micro-climate. Change the flow and every eddy is affected, in different but related ways. Climate is much more complex than a river, but it may scale in similar ways. The "Great Believers" say it's all a bottom-up process. The termites control the planet.
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Post by IB DaMann on Mar 10, 2019 14:35:38 GMT
The whole idea of a global climate is a contradiction in terms. There are millions of climates all over the planet. One thing we know is that heart's active geology makes the ocean more alkaline, which is why the average ocean pH is about 8.3, give or take a wide margin of error. It's merely a matter of scale. In a river, every eddy is a micro-climate. Change the flow and every eddy is affected, in different but related ways. Climate is much more complex than a river, but it may scale in similar ways. The "Great Believers" say it's all a bottom-up process. The termites control the planet. How is a religious myth a matter of scale? What is the "scale" of the Christian "God"? The Global Climate is on that same scale.
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