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Post by Ratty on Aug 14, 2019 9:46:10 GMT
Piaget had something to say about ego centrism. Elaboration please.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 14, 2019 10:47:31 GMT
But it needs to get into the upper atmosphere. The linkage between volcanic activity and solar events is not clear to me but there have been no real volcanic event at a weather level for some years and actually not that many for a 150 years. Given the quantity of satellite imagery and measurements of various types that have accumulated over the last 4 decades, I expect to see a lot more research on this issue. Fertile ground for many dissertations. Figures given for the tropopause are nearly twice as high at the equator (17 Km) as at the poles (9 km) ... and with the current loopy circulation, lower level polar volcanic injections might be widely disseminated. 250 hPa is about 10000 meters and seems to be really active right now. I do not have a running tally, but I remember at least two recent eruptions that apparently breached the tropopause in the tropics and a few lower level eruptions further north may have also injected material. How much is enough to have what effects? We don't know. But we live in exciting times. Curse or not remains to be seen. But see we shall. Research on volcanic aerosols may be very difficult to fund. Almost all climate models use 'aerosol feedbacks' as a tuning parameter (wedge of cardboard under the short leg) to get the model a little closer to reality. Problem is that each model uses totally different values for the effect of atmospheric aerosols. Someone coming up with reliable figures for the aerosol effect will not be welcome.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 14, 2019 15:00:01 GMT
Time to introduce a little friction in the "model lube".
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2019 14:57:24 GMT
Another interesting resource Screen grab here: Many more auto-upating maps here: earthquaketrack.com/recentEach report has live links to local maps (not active on screen grab obviously)
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Post by blustnmtn on Aug 31, 2019 20:04:56 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2019 16:53:26 GMT
ALSO SEE "SEISMIC ACTIVITIES AND SOLAR CYCLES" September 5, 2019
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Post by Ratty on Dec 10, 2019 10:40:24 GMT
Implications for the Indian Ocean Dipole? Is this why it won't rain in Oz? China’s deep sea prospectors may find key to marine heatwavesWyss Yim, previously a geoscientist with the University of Hong Kong, has been tracking geothermal activity beneath the world’s oceans through satellite data and has traced a dramatic rise in seawater temperature to a volcanic eruption near Madagascar in spring 2018.
The volcano, on the sea floor off the French island of Mayotte, caused numerous earthquakes but also created a mountain of magma – about 800 metres (2,600 feet) tall and 5km (three miles) wide – according to French scientists led by Marc Chaussidon, director of the Institute of Geophysics in Paris, who said it “was built from zero in six months”.
Yim’s study found the formation of the magma mountain had coincided with the temperature rise in the southwest Indian Ocean. He hypothesised that magma from the volcano had risen from the sea floor and ridden long distances on currents before spreading out when it reached the surface.
Yim said the resulting marine heatwave was a “Blob” – a phenomenon previously recorded in the Pacific and named after 1950s horror film The Blob about an alien monster which devours everything in its path. He said he believed the activity led to a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole – also called the Indian Nino, after the El Nino effect in the Pacific which is linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures.
The warmer temperatures in the Indian Ocean caused massive drought in the southern half of Australia, with the southeast of the country worst affected. Australia experienced a particularly dry summer, with water restrictions introduced for Sydney in May, followed by unprecedented bush fires in the spring.
The east coast of southern Africa took a hit too, Yim said, with a record 10 intense cyclones last season. The biggest of them, Idai, killed more than 1,300 people and caused US$2 billion worth of economic damage to countries including Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 29, 2019 18:31:51 GMT
I have no problems in taking this serious. There is a paper i have read on seismic activity and Global temperatures some time ago. Not sure if you guys have put this up prviously? Seismic activity was used as a proxy for geothermal flux www.omicsonline.org/open-access/the-correlation-of-seismic-activity-and-recent-global-warming-2157-7617-1000345.pdfAbstract
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states with high confidence that the warming of global temperatures since 1901 has been driven by increased radiative forcing. The gases responsible for this enhanced forcing are greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin, and include carbon dioxide, methane, and halocarbons. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change has challenged these findings and concludes that the forcing from greenhouse gases is minimal and diminishing. They add that modelling attempts of past and future climate states are inaccurate and do not incorporate important solar inputs, such as magnetic strength and total irradiance. One geophysical variable that has been overlooked by both groups is geothermal flux. This study will show that increasing seismic activity for the globe’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA), an indicator of increasing geothermal forcing, is highly correlated with average global temperatures from 1979 to 2015 (r = 0.785). By comparison, the correlation between carbon dioxide loading and global temperatures for the same period is lower (r = 0.739). Multiple regression indicates that HGFA seismicity is a significant predictor of global temperatures (P < 0.05), but carbon dioxide concentrations do not significantly improve the explained variance (P > 0.1). A compelling case for geothermal forcing lies in the fact that 1) geothermal heat can trigger thermobaric convection and strengthen oceanic overturning, important mechanisms for transferring ocean heat to the overlying atmosphere, and 2) seismic activity is the leading indicator, while global temperature is the laggard.
Conclusion
Earth’s climate is a remarkably “noisy” system, driven by scores of oscillators, feedback mechanisms, and radiative forcings. Amidst all this noise, identifying a solitary input to the system (i.e., HGFA MAG4/6 seismic activity as a proxy for geothermal heat flux) that explains 62% of the variation in the earth’s surface temperature is a significant finding. Additionally, the 1997/1998 SIENA was a strong signal for subsequent global warming, and this type of seismic jump may provide valuable predictive information. Conversely, if seismic activity gaps downward, this may indicate the onset of a cooling period. Future research clearly needs to incorporate seismic and geothermal inputs into global climate models. The climate community should also begin to explore the impacts of geothermal flux on poorly understood feedbacks, such as Antarctic glacial retreat [40], water vapor, clouds, and the release of methyl hydrates [41].
To ameliorate the problems of rising global temperatures, legislative and taxing initiatives are currently being proposed and evaluated by governing bodies around the world. Most of these initiatives are designed to curb GHG emissions. However, this study shows that we may want to delay such actions until all of the climate system’s inputs are fully accounted for.
Time to re-visit this. This link to earth.nullschool is (should ne) set at February 2019. Note the hotspot surrounding New Zealand. Quick click forward through time and note the pulses along a SE arc extending from north of New Guinea to east of New Zealand. Also note the interface with ENSO and the easterly current flow. Some of these spot temperature anomalies get to +7 C. What kind of radiator output is required to do that? And right on a solar minimum and all the sun-earth electrical circuit stuff that we know so little about. And what happens in the ocean doesn't stay in the ocean. Perhaps one good reason, the UAH temps are hanging in there. earth.nullschool.net/#2019/02/16/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-178.75,-13.01,281/loc=-156.518,45.061
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Post by Ratty on Dec 30, 2019 0:34:53 GMT
I have no problems in taking this serious. There is a paper i have read on seismic activity and Global temperatures some time ago. Not sure if you guys have put this up prviously? Seismic activity was used as a proxy for geothermal flux www.omicsonline.org/open-access/the-correlation-of-seismic-activity-and-recent-global-warming-2157-7617-1000345.pdfAbstract
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states with high confidence that the warming of global temperatures since 1901 has been driven by increased radiative forcing. The gases responsible for this enhanced forcing are greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin, and include carbon dioxide, methane, and halocarbons. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change has challenged these findings and concludes that the forcing from greenhouse gases is minimal and diminishing. They add that modelling attempts of past and future climate states are inaccurate and do not incorporate important solar inputs, such as magnetic strength and total irradiance. One geophysical variable that has been overlooked by both groups is geothermal flux. This study will show that increasing seismic activity for the globe’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA), an indicator of increasing geothermal forcing, is highly correlated with average global temperatures from 1979 to 2015 (r = 0.785). By comparison, the correlation between carbon dioxide loading and global temperatures for the same period is lower (r = 0.739). Multiple regression indicates that HGFA seismicity is a significant predictor of global temperatures (P < 0.05), but carbon dioxide concentrations do not significantly improve the explained variance (P > 0.1). A compelling case for geothermal forcing lies in the fact that 1) geothermal heat can trigger thermobaric convection and strengthen oceanic overturning, important mechanisms for transferring ocean heat to the overlying atmosphere, and 2) seismic activity is the leading indicator, while global temperature is the laggard.
Conclusion
Earth’s climate is a remarkably “noisy” system, driven by scores of oscillators, feedback mechanisms, and radiative forcings. Amidst all this noise, identifying a solitary input to the system (i.e., HGFA MAG4/6 seismic activity as a proxy for geothermal heat flux) that explains 62% of the variation in the earth’s surface temperature is a significant finding. Additionally, the 1997/1998 SIENA was a strong signal for subsequent global warming, and this type of seismic jump may provide valuable predictive information. Conversely, if seismic activity gaps downward, this may indicate the onset of a cooling period. Future research clearly needs to incorporate seismic and geothermal inputs into global climate models. The climate community should also begin to explore the impacts of geothermal flux on poorly understood feedbacks, such as Antarctic glacial retreat [40], water vapor, clouds, and the release of methyl hydrates [41].
To ameliorate the problems of rising global temperatures, legislative and taxing initiatives are currently being proposed and evaluated by governing bodies around the world. Most of these initiatives are designed to curb GHG emissions. However, this study shows that we may want to delay such actions until all of the climate system’s inputs are fully accounted for.
Time to re-visit this. This link to earth.nullschool is (should ne) set at February 2019. Note the hotspot surrounding New Zealand. Quick click forward through time and note the pulses along a SE arc extending from north of New Guinea to east of New Zealand. Also note the interface with ENSO and the easterly current flow. Some of these spot temperature anomalies get to +7 C. What kind of radiator output is required to do that? And right on a solar minimum and all the sun-earth electrical circuit stuff that we know so little about. And what happens in the ocean doesn't stay in the ocean. Perhaps one good reason, the UAH temps are hanging in there. earth.nullschool.net/#2019/02/16/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-178.75,-13.01,281/loc=-156.518,45.061 The website mentioned in the original post (www.omicsonline.org/open-access/the-correlation-of-seismic-activity-and-recent-global-warming-2157-7617-1000345.pdf) is no longer available. www.omicsonline. com/ displays but that's the end of it. Site in transition?
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 8, 2020 0:20:13 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 8, 2020 2:26:40 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Mar 8, 2020 6:07:55 GMT
That's a slick site ...... bookmarked.
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Post by Ratty on May 18, 2020 5:57:48 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 12, 2020 13:34:43 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 9, 2020 14:38:12 GMT
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