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Post by duwayne on Jul 5, 2018 16:15:27 GMT
Does anyone know how to link to past NOAA ENSO predictions. I'm particularly interested in the prediction made in January 2017.
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ENSO 2018
Jul 5, 2018 16:32:25 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 5, 2018 16:32:25 GMT
Does anyone know how to link to past NOAA ENSO predictions. I'm particularly interested in the prediction made in January 2017. Can't you just look through the old thread?? My money is on a nino forecast...then it went Nina.....
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ENSO 2018
Jul 5, 2018 16:39:29 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 5, 2018 16:39:29 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Jul 5, 2018 17:00:38 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jul 6, 2018 18:06:36 GMT
Icefisher and Acidohm, thanks for the links. I wanted the links to show an NOAA person who I’m arguing with that his claim that they are good at predicting ENSO “several seasons in advance” is questionable. Even as late as May-June 2017 when I predicted a late 2017 La Nina, they were predicting an El Nino. iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/figure3-2.gifJust to remind you what actually happened - this shows the rapid drop into La Nina territory in 2017. (Note that the chart updates on its own so in another month the July value of 0.4 will not show.)
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Post by acidohm on Jul 6, 2018 18:23:06 GMT
Icefisher and Acidohm, thanks for the links. I wanted the links to show an NOAA person who I’m arguing with that his claim that they are good at predicting ENSO “several seasons in advance” is questionable. Even as late as May-June 2017 when I predicted a late 2017 La Nina, they were predicting an El Nino. iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/figure3-2.gifJust to remind you what actually happened this slows the rapid drop into La Nina territory in 2017. (Note that the chart updates on its own so in another month the July value of 0.4 will not show.) Why argue, if this person feels NOAA forecasts are good, he is 100% delusional 😉🤣
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ENSO 2018
Jul 6, 2018 20:55:57 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 6, 2018 20:55:57 GMT
Good fit on the face of it 🤔 And isn't this generally what Astro was arguing?
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ENSO 2018
Jul 6, 2018 21:02:01 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 6, 2018 21:02:01 GMT
Good fit on the face of it 🤔 And isn't this generally what Astro was arguing? Erm....I don't want to alarm anyone....but this 'Missouriboy' character...I heard hes been trolling loads of other non-warmists pages, I think he's paid by bearmanpig...?? 😉
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ENSO 2018
Jul 6, 2018 21:28:01 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 6, 2018 21:28:01 GMT
And isn't this generally what Astro was arguing? Erm....I don't want to alarm anyone....but this 'Missouriboy' character...I heard hes been trolling loads of other non-warmists pages, I think he's paid by bearmanpig...?? 😉 I’m pretty sure bearmanpig is on the last page of the “picture” thread.
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ENSO 2018
Jul 6, 2018 21:35:07 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 6, 2018 21:35:07 GMT
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ENSO 2018
Jul 6, 2018 21:43:44 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 6, 2018 21:43:44 GMT
And isn't this generally what Astro was arguing? Erm....I don't want to alarm anyone....but this 'Missouriboy' character...I heard hes been trolling loads of other non-warmists pages, I think he's paid by bearmanpig...?? 😉 Just about back from the 'Last Tango in Europe' trip. Got more miles on me than a 1960s VW Bug. Enough stone dust to smother a Roman. Need new shoes. 😁
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ENSO 2018
Jul 6, 2018 22:31:16 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 6, 2018 22:31:16 GMT
Erm....I don't want to alarm anyone....but this 'Missouriboy' character...I heard hes been trolling loads of other non-warmists pages, I think he's paid by bearmanpig...?? 😉 Just about back from the 'Last Tango in Europe' trip. Got more miles on me than a 1960s VW Bug. Enough stone dust to smother a Roman. Need new shoes. 😁 And legs?? 🏃♂️🏃♂️ welcome back to the pages 👍👍
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 6, 2018 23:13:14 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jul 7, 2018 18:44:10 GMT
Icefisher and Acidohm, thanks for the links. I wanted the links to show an NOAA person who I’m arguing with that his claim that they are good at predicting ENSO “several seasons in advance” is questionable. Even as late as May-June 2017 when I predicted a late 2017 La Nina, they were predicting an El Nino. iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/figure3-2.gifJust to remind you what actually happened this slows the rapid drop into La Nina territory in 2017. (Note that the chart updates on its own so in another month the July value of 0.4 will not show.) Why argue, if this person feels NOAA forecasts are good, he is 100% delusional 😉🤣 Acidohm, here is a link to the NOAA article on ENSO which touts their expertise of accurately predicting ENSO several seasons in advance. If you scroll down through the comments section, you'll see my comments ( first one on Fri, 2018-06-29 18:12) and the replies. After seeing the responses I'm taking your advice, why argue any further. www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 7, 2018 19:41:03 GMT
Why argue, if this person feels NOAA forecasts are good, he is 100% delusional 😉🤣 Acidohm, here is a link to the NOAA article on ENSO which touts their expertise of accurately predicting ENSO several seasons in advance. If you scroll down through the comments section, you'll see my comments ( first one on Fri, 2018-06-29 18:12) and the replies. After seeing the responses I'm taking your advice, why argue any further. www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshellFrom the last comment ... These sorts of forecasts need many events in order to see just how good they are. After all, if we issue a forecast of a 60% chance of El Nino and a 25% of La Nina by DJF and it ends up being a La Nina, is that wrong? That is supposed to happen 25% of the time.
I think that the answer to his question is ... yes. Probabilistic is fine for descriptive statistics but not for a forecast. The science of having your cake and eating it too.
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