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Post by missouriboy on Dec 3, 2018 5:49:48 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 4, 2018 23:45:29 GMT
This is great. When I click on weather.gov NOAA has a forecast for December for Southeast Texas. The color certainly looks like they are forecasting it to be "warmer than normal". But when you read the fine print it says there is a 33% chance of us having a warmer than average December. A 33% chance we are going to have an "average" December and a 33% chance we are going to have a colder than average December. Really? You cant make this stuff up. They are stepping out on a limb and forecasting equal chances of every outcome? WTF? Why don't they just say we really don't have a clue but if we put equal chances of everything we can't really be wrong and can continue to collect a paycheck in perpetuity... Say what you will about Joe Bastardi. When he is correct he certainly pounds his own chest. Almost to the point of being annoying. But at least he makes a forecast well in advance, gives his reasons for doing so and sticks with it. And when he errs he admits it and moves on. I think the URL will update daily so this picture may not apply in a day or two..
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Post by Ratty on Dec 5, 2018 1:19:17 GMT
This is great. When I click on weather.gov NOAA has a forecast for December for Southeast Texas. The color certainly looks like they are forecasting it to be "warmer than normal". But when you read the fine print it says there is a 33% chance of us having a warmer than average December. A 33% chance we are going to have an "average" December and a 33% chance we are going to have a colder than average December. [ Snip ] Made my day. Thanks Glenn.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 5, 2018 2:01:06 GMT
This is great. When I click on weather.gov NOAA has a forecast for December for Southeast Texas. The color certainly looks like they are forecasting it to be "warmer than normal". But when you read the fine print it says there is a 33% chance of us having a warmer than average December. A 33% chance we are going to have an "average" December and a 33% chance we are going to have a colder than average December. Really? You cant make this stuff up. They are stepping out on a limb and forecasting equal chances of every outcome? WTF? Why don't they just say we really don't have a clue but if we put equal chances of everything we can't really be wrong and can continue to collect a paycheck in perpetuity... Say what you will about Joe Bastardi. When he is correct he certainly pounds his own chest. Almost to the point of being annoying. But at least he makes a forecast well in advance, gives his reasons for doing so and sticks with it. And when he errs he admits it and moves on. I think the URL will update daily so this picture may not apply in a day or two.. And like good government employees, they are not sticking their neck out.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 5, 2018 8:38:42 GMT
This is great. When I click on weather.gov NOAA has a forecast for December for Southeast Texas. The color certainly looks like they are forecasting it to be "warmer than normal". But when you read the fine print it says there is a 33% chance of us having a warmer than average December. A 33% chance we are going to have an "average" December and a 33% chance we are going to have a colder than average December. Really? You cant make this stuff up. They are stepping out on a limb and forecasting equal chances of every outcome? WTF? Why don't they just say we really don't have a clue but if we put equal chances of everything we can't really be wrong and can continue to collect a paycheck in perpetuity... Say what you will about Joe Bastardi. When he is correct he certainly pounds his own chest. Almost to the point of being annoying. But at least he makes a forecast well in advance, gives his reasons for doing so and sticks with it. And when he errs he admits it and moves on. I think the URL will update daily so this picture may not apply in a day or two.. And like good government employees, they are not sticking their neck out. They like the idea of a pension.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 5, 2018 12:41:59 GMT
Click on the graphic to get the full message - Joe is impressed with Joe
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 5, 2018 15:31:33 GMT
Sorry Joe, the IPCC and their minions have y'all beat. They know what the 2-meter global temperature is going to be in a 100 years. That's why we pay them the big bucks.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 5, 2018 22:39:00 GMT
Joe most certainly comes off as being a little arrogant. I think a little "moxy" or what can also be called "confidence" is a good thing. He is a second generation meteorologist who uses a rare mix of old school forecasting techniques and modern model analysis to base his forecasts on. His knowledge of historical weather is unrivaled.
While some of weather may be chaotic there are certainly cycles and patterns that repeat over and over again.
To me he is part meteorologist part weather historian and part artist...
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 7, 2018 4:17:53 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2018 10:05:27 GMT
We are experiencing a week of very mild (ie, cool) weather after some very hot stuff. I had to put a shirt on this morning.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 7, 2018 18:54:35 GMT
We are experiencing a week of very milr (ie, cool) weather after some very hot stuff. I had to put a shirt on this morning. Yes, God yes please you could always watch the reflection on your shield ....
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Post by blustnmtn on Dec 7, 2018 20:17:04 GMT
We are experiencing a week of very milr (ie, cool) weather after some very hot stuff. I had to put a shirt on this morning. Yes, God yes please Said Mrs. Ratty!
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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2018 23:15:41 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 7, 2018 23:36:30 GMT
I can tell November has been much colder. My natural gas consumption is 50% higher than same time last year. Perhaps NG consumption would be a better indicator of winter climate change in the Midwest than NOAA temperature data.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 8, 2018 2:14:09 GMT
I can tell November has been much colder. My natural gas consumption is 50% higher than same time last year. Perhaps NG consumption would be a better indicator of winter climate change in the Midwest than NOAA temperature data. Not necessarily better - but more trustworthy. I have in the past worked closely with NASA/NOAA/NCDC and others. I know that they are extremely capable but I am extremely disappointed in their lack of ethics.
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