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Post by missouriboy on Feb 10, 2019 10:31:50 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 11, 2019 13:23:52 GMT
Sounds Gorey
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 11, 2019 13:54:02 GMT
Apparently it's serious.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 11, 2019 21:17:19 GMT
The deviation/variation is remarkably similar between the two graphs. I am surprised at that. I wonder how much further south one would have to go to see the variation level out? And what would happen further north. Now I am really interested in Winnipeg if you can find the data and time to do it. Or, Dawson etc?? ANATOMY OF A FRAUDIt occurred to me that there was a reason I didn't use Grand Forks as one of my Grain Belt Stations. It has been corrupted. Wanna bet that it is one of the select NOAA stations that form the core of those that generate the N American portion of the Global temperature series? The little Bastards are sneaky, but they are sloppy. Consider the following. There is great latitudinal continuity in the general magnitude of seasonal temperature deviations between Grain Belt stations from North to South. Example shown in first chart is for January. Chart 2 compares winter deviations between Columbia, MO and Brookings, SD. Seasonal temperatures for Brookings are more like N Dakota than Columbia, MO. But Chart 2 shows that there is hardly a dimes' worth of difference between the two stations in terms of their temporal deviations. Charts 3 and 4 show the deviational differences between Columbia, MO and Grand Forks and between Brookings SD and Grand Forks. You note the differences and the temporal trend of those differences. Chart 5 is the deviation in the deviations ... the Exlax in their morning yogurt. Do you know or know anyone who knows the Dean of Arts and Science or similar at the University (which is the den from which this series emanates) together with the local Fox News affiliate? Fox might like such a story ... but I doubt that the Dean would be happy. Cookie jars (read grants) might be endangered. Oh what a tangled web we weave ... My temperance director suggests I should be more discreet ... but I've worked too many data sets to believe this for a minute. Well Sig, I went back and added some of the other Grain Belt stations to the analysis. You North Dakotans have a truely amazing climate up there. You are cooler when more southern stations are really hot (except after 1980), and you are warmer when others are freezing (but only after 1960). What a micro-climate ... you should invite some climate scientists to check it out. Both you AND the Canadians. Can't tell Winnipeg and Regina from Grand Forks. You'd think they might be a part of an important data base or something. The three Amigos show a net 125-year mean winter temperature increase of just under 1 F, while other stations are relatively flat. Hmmm.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 12, 2019 1:42:43 GMT
On the bright side, skiing should be good ... assuming you can get there.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 13, 2019 9:47:18 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Feb 13, 2019 10:07:44 GMT
A good analysis on how wierd the weather in N Europe has been.
Overall, the pattern suggests, retrospectively, cold weather dominating. Yet it didnt....one very fine line occurred so far this year.
Close, but no banana 🍌🍌
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 13, 2019 10:59:40 GMT
<<SNIP>> A good analysis on how wierd the weather in N Europe has been. Overall, the pattern suggests, retrospectively, cold weather dominating. Yet it didnt....one very fine line occurred so far this year. Close, but no banana 🍌🍌 'Ne'er cast a clout till May be out'
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Post by douglavers on Feb 13, 2019 11:07:04 GMT
Can I suggest the reason for the [remarkably average] Uk winter is a prevailing Westerly for much of the time.
Of course, if the North Atlantic continues to cool ...............
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 13, 2019 11:12:45 GMT
Can I suggest the reason for the [remarkably average] Uk winter is a prevailing Westerly for much of the time. Of course, if the North Atlantic continues to cool ............... The Gulf Stream seems to have been perturbed by the Labrador current and the North Atlantic drift is a little diffuse so it may not be warm but its not looking overly cold. It's the luck of the draw where the latitudinal jets get blocked. earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-8.80,42.90,585
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 13, 2019 21:47:29 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Feb 14, 2019 10:30:56 GMT
Can I suggest the reason for the [remarkably average] Uk winter is a prevailing Westerly for much of the time. Of course, if the North Atlantic continues to cool ............... The Gulf Stream seems to have been perturbed by the Labrador current and the North Atlantic drift is a little diffuse so it may not be warm but its not looking overly cold. It's the luck of the draw where the latitudinal jets get blocked. earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-8.80,42.90,585 The only person i know who suggested that NAO would not go negative this year, based his forecast on the ssta profile of N Atlantic. I pointed out GS and various other parts were broadly similar for the past year or so. He suggested he was looking at more subtle fluctuations and wasnt really concerned with GS at the moment. This winter season has certainly been close for N Europe, i get the impression small, and normal adjustments to the ssta profile of N Atlantic may have allowed heights to build where they didnt.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 14, 2019 10:35:52 GMT
Can I suggest the reason for the [remarkably average] Uk winter is a prevailing Westerly for much of the time. Of course, if the North Atlantic continues to cool ............... We didnt experience much westerly flow in a zonal sense Doug. Conditions were, and continue to be, very meridional. Our temps have been revolving around the placement of the omega high, which has generally been on top of us giving average, stable/dry conditions. As they have pretty much since last april. When the high shifts east we get warm and it rains, when it shifts west we get cooler and as last month, snows. It just never reaches up to scandinavia or greenland and blocks the atlantic fully.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 14, 2019 10:37:24 GMT
<<SNIP>> A good analysis on how wierd the weather in N Europe has been. Overall, the pattern suggests, retrospectively, cold weather dominating. Yet it didnt....one very fine line occurred so far this year. Close, but no banana 🍌🍌 'Ne'er cast a clout till May be out' Agree, however the atmosphere will have to do something it hasnt for nearly a year, despite every opportunity to do so!! Time is quickly running out!
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 14, 2019 16:55:20 GMT
'Ne'er cast a clout till May be out' Agree, however the atmosphere will have to do something it hasnt for nearly a year, despite every opportunity to do so!! Time is quickly running out! According to Astro's forecast ... spring may yet surprise??
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