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Post by Ratty on Sept 25, 2020 13:44:59 GMT
When we become zombies. What, isn't that why they eat brains? Dat and becuz thez Democrats.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 25, 2020 15:44:34 GMT
Are we at cranial minimum? When does the new cycle start? When we become zombies. What, isn't that why they eat brains? Kuru - a BSE for humans
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Post by duwayne on Oct 4, 2020 15:41:57 GMT
As everyone probably knows, Leif Svaalgaard’s Cycle 24 prediction turned out to be quite accurate and more than 2 years ago he predicted Cycle 25 will be slightly stronger than Cycle 24. The 13-month smoothed maximum sunspot peak for Cycle 24 was 116. Leif’s latest prediction for the Cycle 25 peak is 128. If you go to Leif’s website, you can see his latest update which includes the predictions of others. For Cycle 24 Leif’s prediction was very low compared to the average of others. This time, it’s interesting that his forecast is almost at the average of other predictions although there is a wide spread in the predictions. Here is the link to Leif's website. The link to his latest prediction is beside the number 3000 which is about 18 rows down the page under “Prediction-SC-25-JSWSC.pdf” www.leif.org/research/
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 4, 2020 17:10:25 GMT
As everyone probably knows, Leif Svaalgaard’s Cycle 24 prediction turned out to be quite accurate and more than a 2 years ago he predicted Cycle 25 will be slightly stronger than Cycle 24. The 13-month smoothed maximum sunspot peak for Cycle 24 was 116. Leif’s latest prediction for the Cycle 25 peak is 128. If you go to Leif’s website, you can see his latest update which includes the predictions of others. For Cycle 24 Leif’s prediction was very low compared to the average of others. This time, it’s interesting that his forecast is almost at the average of other predictions although there is a wide spread in the predictions. Here is the link to Leif's website. The link to his latest prediction is beside the number 3000 which is about 18 rows down the page under “Prediction-SC-25-JSWSC.pdf” www.leif.org/research/The sunspot number is the longest continual measurement that we have for solar activity/strength. There are those that question whether sunspots are the most effective measure of solar influences on the Earth. Is a Solar Cycle 25 of comparable sunspot number to Solar Cycle 24 also comparable in the range and magnitude of electro-magnetic spectra and more recently discussed forces such as the global electric circuit? I need to do more readings in these areas. I need a fully-integrated clone.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 4, 2020 19:38:28 GMT
This long video may be worth reviewing again as it contains concepts directly relevant to this issue. If and when we master it we can pat ourselves on the back. Yippi-Ki-Yi-Yo
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Post by acidohm on Oct 4, 2020 20:06:35 GMT
Are we experiencing a double dip minimum??
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 4, 2020 21:27:44 GMT
Are we experiencing a double dip minimum?? There's a thought.... The AP would support that idea. So would the sunspot count Strangely, many of the graphics outputs from Leif have not been updated.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 4, 2020 21:46:38 GMT
Are we experiencing a double dip minimum?? Sunspots since December 2019 (baptised SC25 start month) have been running in small bits and spurts separated by periods of many spotless days. SC24 was more consistent. What's your thought here?
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 4, 2020 23:12:56 GMT
We have after all got a huge sample size 24 cycles - so we can make lots of hugely invalid statistical forecasts.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 5, 2020 0:14:22 GMT
We have after all got a huge sample size 24 cycles - so we can make lots of hugely invalid statistical forecasts. In terms of instrumentation detail, our sample size is really much smaller than 24. Perhaps 5, which takes us back to SC 20. Beyond that, evaluation of details in the tails of a distribution may not be statistically valid unless they are large.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 5, 2020 4:47:41 GMT
Are we experiencing a double dip minimum?? Sunspots since December 2019 (baptised SC25 start month) have been running in small bits and spurts separated by periods of many spotless days. SC24 was more consistent. What's your thought here? Just a thought 🤷🏼♂️ there was a period earlier in the year where cycle 25 spots seemed to be picking up, now we're back to extended spotless periods and %days with no spots is increasing again.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 5, 2020 6:20:40 GMT
Sunspots since December 2019 (baptised SC25 start month) have been running in small bits and spurts separated by periods of many spotless days. SC24 was more consistent. What's your thought here? Just a thought 🤷🏼♂️ there was a period earlier in the year where cycle 25 spots seemed to be picking up, now we're back to extended spotless periods and %days with no spots is increasing again. It's probably a second wave .... anyone know how to contact Neil Ferguson?
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 7, 2020 14:05:50 GMT
This long video may be worth reviewing again as it contains concepts directly relevant to this issue. If and when we master it we can pat ourselves on the back. Yippi-Ki-Yi-Yo Entertaining but who believes this theory? Certainly no one in main stream science. How often along the curve of "settled science", particularly at points of great debate and scientific advance, has the "main stream" been correct? Just a thought.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 7, 2020 14:47:54 GMT
Entertaining but who believes this theory? Certainly no one in main stream science. How often along the curve of "settled science", particularly at points of great debate and scientific advance, has the "main stream" been correct? Just a thought. Indeed almost by definition main stream science is often incorrect. Or as Richard Feynman said: " Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts"
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Post by Ratty on Oct 7, 2020 21:53:01 GMT
... and, as QI host Stephen Fry said recently, if they went back to the first episodes in 2003 and asked those early questions, many would have different answers. He probably would have said it more eloquently than moi.
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