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Post by missouriboy on Oct 11, 2019 0:12:22 GMT
So much for those "optimistic" ag estimates/forecasts (some would say contrived) that lots of farmers around here weren't buying.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 12, 2019 15:54:11 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 18, 2019 0:35:46 GMT
For the last month or so I've been running into farmers that are trying to time selling their grain, and are not believing the grain data being put out by the USDA. This guy seems to be saying the same thing. I hate to cast aspersions ... BUT ... would this be what you would expect IF someone(s) wanted to make a killing in the market when, all of a sudden, prices sky rocketed? I know. Professionals would never do that. But it is very curious. Probably just fake news. Any thoughts Sig? This is the Oct. 2019 WASDE report and it seems quite optimistic for US grain production. Lots of pretty charts and maps. Page 2 has the rosy corn forecast. www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing/Archive/2019/October_2019_WASDE_Lockup_Briefing.pdfwww.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0919.pdf September Report
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 18, 2019 1:42:32 GMT
For the last month or so I've been running into farmers that are trying to time selling their grain, and are not believing the grain data being put out by the USDA. This guy seems to be saying the same thing. I hate to cast aspersions ... BUT ... would this be what you would expect IF someone(s) wanted to make a killing in the market when, all of a sudden, prices sky rocketed? I know. Professionals would never do that. But it is very curious. Probably just fake news. Any thoughts Sig? This is the Oct. 2019 WASDE report and it seems quite optimistic for US grain production. Lots of pretty charts and maps. Page 2 has the rosy corn forecast. www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing/Archive/2019/October_2019_WASDE_Lockup_Briefing.pdfwww.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0919.pdf September Report NASS is going to re-survey farmers in the Upper Midwest prior to the November report. I will state I wouldn't want to be short grain prior to that report. I have forgotten how to share pictures on here. All I will say is it isn't pretty at all. The losses could exceed $1 BILLION the way it is going.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 18, 2019 2:05:09 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Oct 18, 2019 2:09:47 GMT
[ Snip ] NASS is going to re-survey farmers in the Upper Midwest prior to the November report. I will state I wouldn't want to be short grain prior to that report. I have forgotten how to share pictures on here. All I will say is it isn't pretty at all. The losses could exceed $1 BILLION the way it is going. Chickenfeed! Grain, this is .....
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 20, 2019 9:07:50 GMT
I wonder how true this is.... "Grain Growth Halted – Cold Is Here Posted on 20 October 2019 by E.M.Smith
I’ve put up postings on this for a while. Often citing Iceagenow.info lists of cold places or linking videos from farmers (most recently Yanasa Ama Ranch). Well, the USDA has just stated that this last round of freezing temperatures has effectively ended the grain season.
Why does this matter? Because due to a cold wet late spring, crop was planted late. To get full harvest would require growing into November. That’s impossible. Furthermore, a lot of crop was not harvested at the usual times so is still in the field. It is now more likely to rot there than to be harvested.
Yet the USDA, while calling the season done, is still keeping up rosy predictions on harvest amounts and yields. That’s not gonna work."More at chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/10/20/grain-growth-halted-cold-is-here/The Great Famine started in 1315AD with continual rains and cold stopping agriculture
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 20, 2019 9:12:20 GMT
And from a reply linked to the above ChiefIO post: "Scorched earth: Drought rages after monsoons fail
Rural livelihoods affected as water stress hits production of pulses, oilseeds and cereals
From Gujarat and Maharashtra, through Karnataka and Tamil Nadu to Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the dismal South-West and North-East monsoons of 2018 have triggered yet another drought across the country. The water crisis, coupled with rising summer temperatures, is hurting rural livelihoods and triggering migration from the affected States.
While the South-West monsoon witnessed a deficit of 11 per cent, the shortfall in the North-East monsoon was 31 per cent. The water stress has already impacted production of both kharif and rabi foodgrains and crops such as cotton, pulses and oilseeds."More at: www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/scorched-earth-drought-rages-after-monsoons-fail/article26667129.ece
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 20, 2019 13:45:11 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Oct 20, 2019 23:15:44 GMT
Where are the female wrestlers when you need them?
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 21, 2019 13:27:51 GMT
Very, very interesting stories and videos. The information on these boards is priceless. The only reason I can think why the USDA has not drastically reduced their forecasts is President Trump's pursuit of a trade deal with China. I just have no idea why the traders have not picked up this and sent commodity prices higher. You can fool some of the people, some of the time but it's extremely hard to fool the people who trade commodities for a living. The Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase's have some of the brightest minds in the world and they have a crew ranging from farmers, purchasers and meteorologists on their payroll.
Some type of chicanery is in the works. Commodity trading is too complicated for my simple mind but it probably has something to do with contract expirations, short squeezes and other nuances that the pro's know about and amateurs get burned on.
The ETF Teuchrium (CORN) is trading at 15.30 we will keep an eye on it and see how it does.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 21, 2019 21:28:23 GMT
Very, very interesting stories and videos. The information on these boards is priceless. The only reason I can think why the USDA has not drastically reduced their forecasts is President Trump's pursuit of a trade deal with China. I just have no idea why the traders have not picked up this and sent commodity prices higher. You can fool some of the people, some of the time but it's extremely hard to fool the people who trade commodities for a living. The Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase's have some of the brightest minds in the world and they have a crew ranging from farmers, purchasers and meteorologists on their payroll.Some type of chicanery is in the works. Commodity trading is too complicated for my simple mind but it probably has something to do with contract expirations, short squeezes and other nuances that the pro's know about and amateurs get burned on. The ETF Teuchrium (CORN) is trading at 15.30 we will keep an eye on it and see how it does. Would their purchasers be trying to buy up every bushel they can convince a farmer to sell ... BEFORE a timed price spike? We all know that liars figure ... but they don't often get this kind of chance. Chicanery indeed if this is the case.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 21, 2019 21:41:15 GMT
ND looks like this.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 21, 2019 22:51:33 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Oct 21, 2019 22:56:02 GMT
Very, very interesting stories and videos. The information on these boards is priceless. [ Snip ] Second that. It's almost eleven years since I joined and I have learned so much. Thank you all.
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