|
Post by nautonnier on Jan 6, 2019 14:05:57 GMT
Time for an update. Currently there would appear to be nothing to be excited about. I await the large ENSO event forecast by Theo
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jan 8, 2019 13:58:58 GMT
And another view - do not expect an El Nino this year ...
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Jan 8, 2019 14:12:28 GMT
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jan 8, 2019 15:44:49 GMT
Seems to be wishful thinking more than based on actual temperatures/winds.
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Feb 6, 2019 19:45:54 GMT
|
|
ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
|
Post by ant42 on Feb 7, 2019 4:55:15 GMT
Not yet Duwayne, but the chances are increasing given the analogues all line up with a number of La Nina years.
|
|
|
ENSO-2019
Feb 7, 2019 12:40:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Feb 7, 2019 12:40:26 GMT
Astro expects a big Nina in 2020 i think??
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2019 14:40:48 GMT
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Feb 20, 2019 19:39:09 GMT
Astro expects a big Nina in 2020 i think?? 2021-2022 to be exact. See "Watching and Waiting" thread. I had to go back there and check ... aging RAM. Perhaps Astro can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think what Astro refers to as El Nino is approx. 10+ year event that always immediately precedes the ramp up of a solar cycle. It always occurs under low geomagnetic activity (see chart). By definition, an ENSO event includes both a Nino and a Nina. Post solar cycle "Warm0.5C+3Mth+" Events trail off the cycle as it heads toward minimum. These are thermal trails of the cycle and their size represents the strength of the cycle. In between, the Western Warm Pool periodically gravitates eastward when the trade winds die. Notice that the 2009-10 Nino is similar to the 1966 Nino, and each anchors the end of a high solar cycle that is followed by a low cycle. If the index represents a rough measure of tropical oceanic thermal energy at the surface east of mid Pacific, then it seems that there has been a rather large cumulative quantity since post peak SC23. The radiator has been very active. The 2015-16 warm event is larger than the one following SC20, but it's smaller than the similar 1983 event (SC21). If the trend in the progression persists, the 2021-22 event could be quite large. At least as cold as that following SC20 ... and if we are getting a second low cycle (SC25), might we not expect a deeper Nina than that. Soon we'll know. And also notice that 1950-60 period. Strangely different than all since. Perhaps Joe has reason to be confused. Also notice the pump up in geomagnetic activity following SC20, preceding the crank up in 1976(SC21). No sign of that from SC24. Bad possibilities for SC25?
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Feb 21, 2019 6:31:28 GMT
Astro expects a big Nina in 2020 i think?? 2021-2022 to be exact. See "Watching and Waiting" thread. I had to go back there and check ... aging RAM. Perhaps Astro can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think what Astro refers to as El Nino is approx. 10+ year event that always immediately precedes the ramp up of a solar cycle. It always occurs under low geomagnetic activity (see chart). By definition, an ENSO event includes both a Nino and a Nina. Post solar cycle "Warm0.5C+3Mth+" Events trail off the cycle as it heads toward minimum. These are thermal trails of the cycle and their size represents the strength of the cycle. In between, the Western Warm Pool periodically gravitates eastward when the trade winds die. Notice that the 2009-10 Nino is similar to the 1966 Nino, and each anchors the end of a high solar cycle that is followed by a low cycle. If the index represents a rough measure of tropical oceanic thermal energy at the surface east of mid Pacific, then it seems that there has been a rather large cumulative quantity since post peak SC23. The radiator has been very active. The 2015-16 warm event is larger than the one following SC20, but it's smaller than the similar 1983 event (SC21). If the trend in the progression persists, the 2021-22 event could be quite large. At least as cold as that following SC20 ... and if we are getting a second low cycle (SC25), might we not expect a deeper Nina than that. Soon we'll know. And also notice that 1950-60 period. Strangely different than all since. Perhaps Joe has reason to be confused. Also notice the pump up in geomagnetic activity following SC20, preceding the crank up in 1976(SC21). No sign of that from SC24. Bad possibilities for SC25? I did and continue to forecast an El Nino for 2019-2020, but I never said that it was going to be a 'big El Nino,' but a moderate to weak one, but yes, still a real and true El Nino. The cold phase La Nina that follows it in 2020-2021 will be stronger. The warm phase of this El Nino will be weaker under the Sun's Grand Minimum, however, this is the start of the El Nino I forecasted years ago to arrive in 2019 and continue into 2020.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Mar 6, 2019 11:59:27 GMT
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on Mar 6, 2019 22:34:56 GMT
That paper on 'heatwaves over the oceans' will not make good reading then?
If the past 4 years has seen a big uptick then we will have worse to come nino or not!
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Mar 6, 2019 22:42:05 GMT
That paper on 'heatwaves over the oceans' will not make good reading then? If the past 4 years has seen a big uptick then we will have worse to come nino or not! The energy capacity of the oceans is so high that if heat from the atmosphere was able to transfer to the surface its effect would not be measurable. However, warm air blowing over a water surface will cool it as it increases evaporative cooling. It's why hair and hand driers blow hot air and the reason swamp coolers work. So do not expect the oceans to warm with warm air over them. The only thing guaranteed to warm the oceans is short wave radiation from the Sun, with minor heating from sensible heat from warm coasts, warm rivers and perhaps geothermal heat.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Mar 11, 2019 4:43:49 GMT
|
|
ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
|
Post by ant42 on Mar 16, 2019 12:17:41 GMT
I still think El Nino is cooked, and La Nina / Negative IOD this year, with 2010 as an analog. Timing is all wrong, but I see too many similarities. In 2010 the cold water and warm water were running about 3 weeks ahead, bu essentially the set up was the same, and I think the trade wind burst resulting form the warm Indian Ocean, and also two potential cyclones over the NT next week will get things moving. But check this out, there is a ton of cold water at 8 North. In November these were identical, but in the last 4 months this year has progressed slower, most of the cold water in 2010 was already in transition into the subsurface at the equator. This year it is building and is now slowly started to feed into the cold pool. Next 4 weeks will be crucial, I am waiting for models to respond to this and drop the El Nino, IMO I think its done.
|
|