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Post by duwayne on Apr 25, 2019 16:08:22 GMT
Does anyone know where I can find the latest PDO values? The site I have used is not being updated. Here you go DuWayne. This one is current through 3/19 and goes back to 1854 for whatever that's worth. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/Thanks, Missouriboy. The PDO values are different from the other site I was using. Apparently a revision since the old site isn't being updated..
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Post by Ratty on Apr 25, 2019 23:59:27 GMT
Thanks, Missouriboy. The PDO values are different from the other site I was using. Apparently a revision since the old site isn't being updated.. I'd like to read more on the PDO; is there a layman's guide to the PDO that I might find useful? A 'Net search I ran got 121,000 hits!
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2019 1:54:26 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Apr 26, 2019 4:30:39 GMT
Thanks Missouri. I should be an expert in no time.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2019 12:23:33 GMT
Thanks Missouri. I should be an expert in no time. Careful. You may be pulling that little Ph.D wagon around with you in no time.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 26, 2019 12:55:55 GMT
[ Snip ] Careful. You may be pulling that little Ph.D wagon around with you in no time. Not likely. My logic tags along behind me like a crippled dog.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2019 14:04:50 GMT
[ Snip ] Careful. You may be pulling that little Ph.D wagon around with you in no time. Not likely. My logic tags along behind me like a crippled dog. "That dog won't hunt" ... as LBJ used to say.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 26, 2019 14:08:32 GMT
Not likely. My logic tags along behind me like a crippled dog. "That dog won't hunt" ... as LBJ used to say. That is not my dog.
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Post by blustnmtn on Apr 26, 2019 17:02:14 GMT
Thanks Missouri. I should be an expert in no time. Climate4you.com has a summary of PDO data under the “Oceans” tab on the home page.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 30, 2019 5:27:36 GMT
From Climate4you - The Tell-Tale HeartUpper panel: Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature since 1979 according to University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), USA. Reference period 1981-2010. Lower panel: Global ocean net temperature change 2015-2016 (average for 2016 minus average for 2015; period hatched in upper panel) along Equator (150-280 E) from surface to 1900 m depth, using Argo-data. Last diagram update: 12 March 2018.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 30, 2019 7:44:05 GMT
Try not to fall overboard on the Equator?
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Post by missouriboy on May 1, 2019 21:25:50 GMT
Try not to fall overboard on the Equator? That would be an anomaly.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on May 3, 2019 4:41:05 GMT
Sorry Duwayne my bad, I posted the wrong one, here is the right one with 2010 comparison. Ant42, I presume your observation that 2019 is looking a lot like 2010 means you expect the current El Nino to fade out soon to at least a neutral condition. What do you think about the possibility of a La Nina later this year? Is it possible that the super La Nina I have been expecting will show up in 2019-2020? The Kelvin wave is just beginning an upwelling phase which could bring some cooling over the next few months in the Nino3.4 area. I think this could kick off a super La Nina, but I’m not ready to predict it just yet. I note that NOAA and Astromet currently predict the El Nino will continue into 2020. Yes I expect this is now in the fading stage and will change within a few weeks, as it did in 2010, the subsurface is almost an exact match now as it was in 2010. We are out of sync Solar wise for a large Super La Nina, we might see a couple of weak ones first in the next 24 months, but I wouldn't rule it out, the correlation is quite good. I also think if you use the early minimum = La Nina theory then it could be a chance later this year, one thing is for sure, no one is seeing it coming.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on May 3, 2019 4:48:35 GMT
The other issue is also where is the heat going to come from. There isn't a lot left in the tropical Pacific. Ihe other weird thing is there is a lot of warmth at about 8 South, in the SW Pacific, I guess the models think this may develop and be dragged into the undercurrent.
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Post by nautonnier on May 3, 2019 11:46:53 GMT
The winds do not look conducive to an El Nino although the calm south of the equator in the central and west Pacific is not us
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