Upper panel: Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature since 1979 according to University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), USA. Reference period 1981-2010. Lower panel: Global ocean net temperature change 2015-2016 (average for 2016 minus average for 2015; period hatched in upper panel) along Equator (150-280 E) from surface to 1900 m depth, using Argo-data. Last diagram update: 12 March 2018.
Sorry Duwayne my bad, I posted the wrong one, here is the right one with 2010 comparison.
Ant42, I presume your observation that 2019 is looking a lot like 2010 means you expect the current El Nino to fade out soon to at least a neutral condition. What do you think about the possibility of a La Nina later this year? Is it possible that the super La Nina I have been expecting will show up in 2019-2020?
The Kelvin wave is just beginning an upwelling phase which could bring some cooling over the next few months in the Nino3.4 area. I think this could kick off a super La Nina, but I’m not ready to predict it just yet.
I note that NOAA and Astromet currently predict the El Nino will continue into 2020.
Yes I expect this is now in the fading stage and will change within a few weeks, as it did in 2010, the subsurface is almost an exact match now as it was in 2010. We are out of sync Solar wise for a large Super La Nina, we might see a couple of weak ones first in the next 24 months, but I wouldn't rule it out, the correlation is quite good.
I also think if you use the early minimum = La Nina theory then it could be a chance later this year, one thing is for sure, no one is seeing it coming.