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Post by missouriboy on May 3, 2019 21:28:16 GMT
The other issue is also where is the heat going to come from. There isn't a lot left in the tropical Pacific. Ihe other weird thing is there is a lot of warmth at about 8 South, in the SW Pacific, I guess the models think this may develop and be dragged into the undercurrent. Sure looks like the bulk of the positive anomalous heat is in the southern hemisphere?
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Post by missouriboy on May 12, 2019 12:56:42 GMT
Curious Correlations Willis Eschenbach / May 10, 2019 wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/10/curious-correlations/So much in these spatial images? Is that a positive PDO effect that quickly shows up? Is that warm water circulating northward along the west coast? Would explain the graphs showing PDO seemingly moving in sequence with ENSO.
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Post by Ratty on May 12, 2019 13:13:10 GMT
Might we see this from a climate scientist one day? Confession
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Post by missouriboy on May 12, 2019 14:30:19 GMT
Might we see this from a climate scientist one day? Confession Re-direct the cash flow and all things are possible. Only the true believers will die in place.
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Post by nautonnier on May 12, 2019 15:45:04 GMT
Curious Correlations Willis Eschenbach / May 10, 2019 wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/10/curious-correlations/So much in these spatial images? Is that a positive PDO effect that quickly shows up? Is that warm water circulating northward along the west coast? Would explain the graphs showing PDO seemingly moving in sequence with ENSO. How you can tell Willis is not a Climate 'scientist' ...... Curious Correlations Willis Eschenbach / 2 days ago May 10, 2019
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Grrrrr … gotta pull this one. The effect I found was due to the interaction of the El Nino with the seasons. Once I removed that, very different results. When I’m wrong, I’m wrong, no getting around that.
Ah, well. I’ll return to this subject of correlations with Nino/Nina, it’s an interesting one.
w. wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/10/curious-correlations/
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Post by missouriboy on May 12, 2019 20:11:41 GMT
Even though Willis pulled his spatial analysis of temp. versus El Nino, I thought I should look at UAH sat temps versus ENSO. So, the following is for 2008 to 2019. His general point that atmospheric temperatures lag El Nino events appears valid ... although I don't think anyone doubted that. If time between the current Nino peak and the following La Nina is similar to 2009-2011, then the next Nina could well start as per Astro's forecast ... early 2021. The 2011-2012 Nina was the coldest since the 1970s, and SC24 has been weaker than SC20. Final anomaly could end up lower than 2011-12. Total 2009-2011 fall was -0.7 C. How about a fall of -1.0 C from 2016? That could melt brains in La La land.
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ENSO-2019
May 12, 2019 21:09:38 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on May 12, 2019 21:09:38 GMT
Even though Willis pulled his spatial analysis of temp. versus El Nino, I thought I should look at UAH sat temps versus ENSO. So, the following is for 2008 to 2019. His general point that atmospheric temperatures lag El Nino events appears valid ... although I don't think anyone doubted that. If time between the current Nino peak and the following La Nina is similar to 2009-2011, then the next Nina could well start as per Astro's forecast ... early 2021. The 2011-2012 Nina was the coldest since the 1970s, and SC24 has been weaker than SC20. Final anomaly could end up lower than 2011-12. Total 2009-2011 fall was -0.7 C. How about a fall of -1.0 C from 2016? That could melt brains in La La land. Nice Missouri 👍 one of my favourite graphs youve done! 😊
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ENSO-2019
May 20, 2019 17:58:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on May 20, 2019 17:58:37 GMT
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Post by Ratty on May 21, 2019 2:00:36 GMT
Notice of an upcoming seminar in Canberra at ANU:
The Climate Change Experiment: How Long will the Drought Last?
Robert G V Baker
1 – 2 pm, Thursday 23 May, 2019 CO2 Lecture Theatre, Earth Sciences Building
Earth’s climate system is currently experiencing the impact of a centennial minimum in solar activity. This has not been widely reported in the media, but it has substantial implications for human wellbeing, including the likelihood of significant drought periods in eastern Australia. Previous minimums, namely, the ‘1900’ Minimum and the Dalton Minimum at the beginning of the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively, were associated with significant droughts. For example, 1902 and 1905 were the lowest rainfall years in the modern Australian record. The recurrence interval for such droughts is associated with dominant solar cycles, including the ~21yr magnetic Hale Cycle, the centennial ~86yr Gleissberg Cycle and its ~107yr harmonic. Recent focus has been on the anthropogenic implications of climate change. This seminar, however, poses the question: Do similar emissions from the Sun past and present have similar impacts on Australian climatic responses? Empirical results suggest we are currently experiencing similar solar signals to past centennial drought phases. Reasons for a connection between this solar activity and rainfall patterns seem to be a complex interplay between the role of the Sun’s magnetic field, or lack therein, moderating external galactic cosmic rays and internal ultra-violet radiation from the Sun’s core. This creates the potential in the atmosphere for increased or decreased ionisation and cloud formation over the Pacific Ocean. By using the southern oscillation index (SOI), paired with the progression of the sunspot record ~107 years apart, it can be shown that on both occasions, the SOI is tracking similarly in both early 20th and 21st century time series. The comparison allowed for the current drought to be previously predicted and management strategies could have been adopted, before its onset. Further, it allows for a future estimation of the likelihood of this drought’s continuation, extent and severity, based on the progression or cessation in the similarity in this centennial solar minimum event. Whilst the Sun is largely ignored in the current analysis dynamics of Australian climate, such research should be an integral component of long term water management in Australia.
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Post by missouriboy on May 21, 2019 11:40:44 GMT
Notice of an upcoming seminar in Canberra at ANU: The Climate Change Experiment: How Long will the Drought Last?
Robert G V Baker
1 – 2 pm, Thursday 23 May, 2019 CO2 Lecture Theatre, Earth Sciences Building
Earth’s climate system is currently experiencing the impact of a centennial minimum in solar activity. This has not been widely reported in the media, but it has substantial implications for human wellbeing, including the likelihood of significant drought periods in eastern Australia. Previous minimums, namely, the ‘1900’ Minimum and the Dalton Minimum at the beginning of the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively, were associated with significant droughts. For example, 1902 and 1905 were the lowest rainfall years in the modern Australian record. The recurrence interval for such droughts is associated with dominant solar cycles, including the ~21yr magnetic Hale Cycle, the centennial ~86yr Gleissberg Cycle and its ~107yr harmonic. Recent focus has been on the anthropogenic implications of climate change. This seminar, however, poses the question: Do similar emissions from the Sun past and present have similar impacts on Australian climatic responses? Empirical results suggest we are currently experiencing similar solar signals to past centennial drought phases. Reasons for a connection between this solar activity and rainfall patterns seem to be a complex interplay between the role of the Sun’s magnetic field, or lack therein, moderating external galactic cosmic rays and internal ultra-violet radiation from the Sun’s core. This creates the potential in the atmosphere for increased or decreased ionisation and cloud formation over the Pacific Ocean. By using the southern oscillation index (SOI), paired with the progression of the sunspot record ~107 years apart, it can be shown that on both occasions, the SOI is tracking similarly in both early 20th and 21st century time series. The comparison allowed for the current drought to be previously predicted and management strategies could have been adopted, before its onset. Further, it allows for a future estimation of the likelihood of this drought’s continuation, extent and severity, based on the progression or cessation in the similarity in this centennial solar minimum event. Whilst the Sun is largely ignored in the current analysis dynamics of Australian climate, such research should be an integral component of long term water management in Australia.
He must be a popular man on campus these days. I, for one, would attend.
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Post by Ratty on May 21, 2019 12:02:20 GMT
Notice of an upcoming seminar in Canberra at ANU: The Climate Change Experiment: How Long will the Drought Last?
Robert G V Baker
1 – 2 pm, Thursday 23 May, 2019 CO2 Lecture Theatre, Earth Sciences Building
Earth’s climate system is currently experiencing the impact of a centennial minimum in solar activity. This has not been widely reported in the media, but it has substantial implications for human wellbeing, including the likelihood of significant drought periods in eastern Australia. Previous minimums, namely, the ‘1900’ Minimum and the Dalton Minimum at the beginning of the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively, were associated with significant droughts. For example, 1902 and 1905 were the lowest rainfall years in the modern Australian record. The recurrence interval for such droughts is associated with dominant solar cycles, including the ~21yr magnetic Hale Cycle, the centennial ~86yr Gleissberg Cycle and its ~107yr harmonic. Recent focus has been on the anthropogenic implications of climate change. This seminar, however, poses the question: Do similar emissions from the Sun past and present have similar impacts on Australian climatic responses? Empirical results suggest we are currently experiencing similar solar signals to past centennial drought phases. Reasons for a connection between this solar activity and rainfall patterns seem to be a complex interplay between the role of the Sun’s magnetic field, or lack therein, moderating external galactic cosmic rays and internal ultra-violet radiation from the Sun’s core. This creates the potential in the atmosphere for increased or decreased ionisation and cloud formation over the Pacific Ocean. By using the southern oscillation index (SOI), paired with the progression of the sunspot record ~107 years apart, it can be shown that on both occasions, the SOI is tracking similarly in both early 20th and 21st century time series. The comparison allowed for the current drought to be previously predicted and management strategies could have been adopted, before its onset. Further, it allows for a future estimation of the likelihood of this drought’s continuation, extent and severity, based on the progression or cessation in the similarity in this centennial solar minimum event. Whilst the Sun is largely ignored in the current analysis dynamics of Australian climate, such research should be an integral component of long term water management in Australia.
He must be a popular man on campus these days. I, for one, would attend. I expect attendance will be low .... you cannot suggest that the Sun is involved. There may be riots. A Canberra geologist acquaintance says he will be going so I will report back ... after he's released from hospital.
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Post by missouriboy on May 21, 2019 12:24:16 GMT
He must be a popular man on campus these days. I, for one, would attend. I expect attendance will be low .... you cannot suggest that the Sun is involved. There may be riots. A Canberra geologist acquaintance says he will be going so I will report back ... after he's released from hospital. A person of high caliber should carry an appropriate caliber.
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Post by Ratty on May 21, 2019 12:27:59 GMT
[ Snip ]A person of high caliber should carry an appropriate caliber. In Australia, that would be a stick.
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Post by missouriboy on May 21, 2019 13:01:30 GMT
[ Snip ]A person of high caliber should carry an appropriate caliber. In Australia, that would be a stick. Do they let you sharpen it?
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Post by Ratty on May 21, 2019 22:11:58 GMT
In Australia, that would be a stick. Do they let you sharpen it? Jail time.
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