Theory on solar cycle - www.sibet.org/solar

[bigbud]

Hi
I dare to open a separate thread on my own theory/analysis on the solar cycle. Have just released this webpage, and will be adding more material soon:
home.broadpark.no/~elic/solarcycle.html

Do have a look, and I would be pleased on any feedback

So far my hypothesis is that Jupiter and Jupiter-Saturn are the main drivers behind the solar cycle. I also have some thoughts on Uranus-Neptun that comes later.

BB

[vukcevic]

bigbud
Very interesting results. Continue good work.

[bigbud]

have now also published a view back before 1750, and a forecast for SC24-26... have a look

[jocarl11]

Very nice work Bigbud, Clear and understanding

Doesn't look like hathaways prediction of this so called fast rampup is correct if you look into your predictions and i have to say your prediction looks much more plausible

[bob9000]

Hmmm...you have an interesting theory, and as you say, it is a simplified model.

If your predictions for SC24 pan out, (or even if they don't), I'd encourage you to incorporate the movements of other planets into your model and see if it can help define the predictions a bit better.

[nobrainer]

Solar cycle modulation, what an interesting topic, the so called most knowledgeable speculate its randomly generated from within. You would not expect the wave like patterns if it was random surely?

I have done some work on Neptune & Uranus....but I am not sure if they are involved with modulation, perhaps more likely a cause of Grand Minima I suspect.

I have just recently plotted angular momentum graphs on the Sun back to 900AD, and every occurrence of N+U has resulted in lower sunspot activity, maybe even during the medieval warm period which was a time of very usual line ups.

I have an article posted on a blog I am looking after, with the latest results...check it out, we may have some similar theories.

There is a link on the blog to a missing SC4 paper, that you may find interesting, also N+U were doing there thing back then....just like now.

Geoff Sharp
landscheidt.auditblogs.com/archives/58

[nobrainer]

I couldnt be more wrong...thanks bigbud you have given me the clear head to see what modulates the solar cycles....it is Neptune and Uranus controlling Jupiter and Saturn. Its been before my eyes all the time.

the graph shows it all landscheidt.auditblogs.com/files/2008/12/sunssbam1620to2180gs1.jpg

Its about rotational speed of the sun, which is affected by the Angular Momentum of the Jovian Planets. Neptune and Uranus are the controllers of the 2 main drivers creating Angular momentum, as simple as that. The sunspot cycles curve follows that control. They can add or take away that momentum.

landscheidt.auditblogs.com/archives/58

Geoff Sharp

[bigbud]

could be nobrainer. Your model looks very interesting
I have not made any opinion myself about the influence from Uranus-Neptun, or Saturn-Uranus, or other constellations... will have a closer look first.

But this is crystal clear:
The Jupiter-period has great influence on the solar cycle, as well as the Jupiter-Saturn period.

Tilmari has made a good study of the Jovian period, and I have used his data to make this plot (the scale is degrees, period of 11,86 years. Notice 3 periods of positive second derivative):


And I made this plot of the average SSN during the 19,8 year Jupiter-Saturn synodic period. This shows two distinct periods with a tendency to growing sunspotnumber.


wow... some pieces are really falling into place! How does it look when these two averages are added but there are still some pieces missing in the puzzle.

BB

[nautonnier]

Very interesting BigBud.

As one of the potential effects of the movement of Jupiter and Saturn (and the other planets) will be the position and direction of movement of the Solar System barycenter. Is there any way of using your information to identify that motion relative to the Sun and the rotation of the Sun and correlate it to the solar activity?

[bigbud]

nautonnier
At the moment I am not motivated to look at any barycenter-calculations, but could be that my results will lead me to that

Here is a plot of the average monthly SSN during the 45,4 year Saturn-Uranus synodic cycle. With so few periods it is hard to say if this really results in 4 solar cycles, or if the connection will get out of sync and flatten the average curve... but again a very interesting plot!

[nobrainer]

bigbud...have a closer look, there is no doubt in my mind.

[bigbud]

nobrainer
could you make a "mometum for dummies" summary of how to interpret that momentum-diagram?

What does a momentum top mean for the solar cycle, and what does the hight of the top mean, and so on. What kind of prediction does the model make for the next cycles and period 2010-2040?
(too busy with my own model to go in-depth in others...

BB

[nobrainer]

It takes a little while to get your head around it...but basically the wave pattern (momentum) is controlled by J&S. J+S on the top of wave (strong) and J opposing S on the bottom (weaker).

That strength or weakness is directly controlled by N+U. When N/U are opposing each other everything is balance, but as they start to come together they dramatically change the effect on the Sun (more or less momentum), possibly altering rotation speed and cycle strength.

Your work with J/S angles is relevant (verifies alignment strength) and could be used to predict the strength of grand Minimia cycles perhaps.

[bigbud]

nobrainer
sounds very plausible. I ´m still focused on the solar cycle, and have the longer supercycles a bit on hold.

Here is a bit messy diagram... had to make a quick comparison of the averages from Ju, JuSa and SaUr. A rough forecast seems possible, and fits pretty good with my forecast here home.broadpark.no/~elic/solarcycle3.html

hmm... I wonder if SC24 will fall asleep again, pushing the minimum furter ahead...

[edjr]

I like the charts. But didn't we discuss something like this for weeks on the old board. I would love to hear what Svalgaard thinks of this new theory. Maybe he will let us know.