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Post by france on Oct 7, 2010 13:13:16 GMT
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Post by france on Oct 20, 2010 18:56:19 GMT
Bigbud sfu reached to 140
your prevision was for 6 october. I didn't notice if filaments are always present with these Jupiter recurrences, but at this time they were very numerous and the one which was linked to 1112 was very "hurling".
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Post by lsvalgaard on Oct 20, 2010 22:14:02 GMT
I like the charts. But didn't we discuss something like this for weeks on the old board. I would love to hear what Svalgaard thinks of this new theory. Maybe he will let us know. It was astrology before and it is astrology now. |
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Post by france on Oct 21, 2010 9:19:45 GMT
so it could be a good idea to prepare a gift calendar for the end year festivities  |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 22, 2010 9:52:40 GMT
hey, it may be astrology, but as long as it works...  Anyway, the planetary configuration of Ve-Ea-Ju this Sept-Oct projected a significant rise in solar activity and flux, and we seem to have gotten it, so I am happy. I will check when the next planetary configuration occurs... |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Oct 23, 2010 0:00:36 GMT
hey, it may be astrology, but as long as it works... Anyway, the planetary configuration of Ve-Ea-Ju this Sept-Oct projected a significant rise in solar activity and flux, and we seem to have gotten it, so I am happy. I will check when the next planetary configuration occurs... The problem is that it does not work. You are a victim of confirmation bias. |
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bigbud
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Posts: 180
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Post by bigbud on Oct 23, 2010 16:01:25 GMT
well, I see patterns in the stockmarket that gives me profit, and I see patterns in the solar cycle. I think the patterns in solar cycles are real, but am not making money on them The patterns suggest underlying cycles, and they fit with planetary cycles. But it doesn´t have to be for real- who knows. And the cycles suggest mechanisms for the resulting solar cycle, so lets see if the predictions come out right. Would be fun. The even funnier thing is that the solar cycles fit with the stockmarket cycles. Who knows whether its for real - but I am making cash on it |
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Post by rangertab1 on Oct 23, 2010 18:03:52 GMT
What is this fun you speak of, Bigbud. How dare you have fun with all this. |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 23, 2010 20:16:25 GMT
in this world of quantum mechanics and stuff... I think it would be fun to see that the old simple planetary-explanation could hold water for the solar cycle (and I am actually a physics engineer). Sure the true physical mechanism may be complicated, through some angular momentum or electromagnetic interaction, but the three cycles of Jupiter, Jupiter-Saturn and Venus-Earth-Jupiter seem to hold a key. And together they form the start, end and shape of the solar cycle. Too bad we don´t have more historical data to back this up... and it may be more complicated than this simplyfied "model". But like a technical analyst of the stockmarked... you really don´t care why the market goes up or down, you just wanna know it in advance. And so with the solar cycle... the three planetary cycles provide a rough forecast of what to come, and I really don´t know why. Its astrology And it is fun... btw check out the solar flux in 2010, and where the strongest geomagnetic storms occured. Then see this up against where we had vulcanic ash from Iceland, oilspill in the gulf, Goldman Sachs the dr.Evil behind the financial crisis, the end of the Euro-union, blood in the streets of Athens, Israelis killing aid-people, the flash-crash... man, that period around May was almost like the fall of 2008 for a short time. |
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Post by csspider57 on Oct 24, 2010 4:26:24 GMT
Too bad we don´t have more historical data to back this up... and it may be more complicated than this simplyfied "model". |
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Post by vonbek777 on Oct 24, 2010 5:28:02 GMT
I don't post here often, mostly because I am an absent minded philosopher with very little to add in the realm of hard science, but I do follow this forum religiously. I have long felt astrophysics will one day make astrology (and by astrology I mean the ability for mankind to predict cyclic astral phenomenon in relation to the earth and sun, not whether you will be lucky in love on Tuesday) no longer the sole recreation of kings. I think it is interesting bigbud brought up the stock market and the solar cycle. I started making the same 'connections' back in 2008, and in fact posted in a certain economics blog's forum my big picture casual observations between the two. What I deeply feel now is that in the whole of human endeavor, fundamental and long held models of predictable behavior are being put to the test. Have we been gazing at the sun, or merely shadows on the wall? This is an exciting time to be a philosopher. Having said all that, we must not forget ourselves and let reason be trumped by our trips into fantasy connecting the dots. I think many here are trying to remind us we must not burn the maps of the old world, in search of the new. We must build bridges to connect the two. Just my two cents. I shall cease rambling here and go bug some economists now. |
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Post by france on Dec 4, 2010 22:52:09 GMT
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Post by lsvalgaard on Dec 5, 2010 3:12:06 GMT
Quite the opposite, the paper shows how the two stars HD 168443 and HD 74156 could provide a test if we find that their magnetic cycles match the planetary cycles. We have not found that [yet]. Should we find that they don't match that would be a severe blow to the barycenter idea. From the paper: "From our study HD 168443, with the innermost planet at 0.3AU, off ers particularly interesting prospects for investigation as to whether much more distant planets can aff ect stellar activity through the star’s reflex motion. Present physical understanding says that they cannot. But its dLz=dt, with a periodicity of 58 d, exceeds by more than five orders of magnitude that of the Sun. If orbital angular momentum variations play a role, its eff ects should be visible in this system." And if not, it disproves the barycentric hypothesis. I am willing to bet that should such disproof be forthcoming it will be rejected anyway by barycenter enthusiasts. |
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Post by france on Dec 5, 2010 13:50:57 GMT
Good afternoon Dr Svalgaard
I'm going to translate the paper to not make a misunderstanding. I just noticed the conclusion at the begining
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Dec 5, 2010 15:50:42 GMT
I have no opinion on barycentre... but I remember what gave me a clue on star-planet-connection... and that was the superflares. Now... we don´t have a planetary configuration allowing superflares in our system, but the sunspotcycle may be some kind of mild similar effect...
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