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Post by sigurdur on Dec 9, 2009 19:23:51 GMT
As well, although one year in no way means a trend, does the more rapid ice development over Siberia and Alaska - NSIDC suggests its at or above the 79-00 average - perhaps suggest the growing influence of the negative PDO phase? Or is the present PDO anomaly, whatever it may be, immaterial? The negative PDO is having an influence on North America by chaning the normal low and high areas. Instead of giving us warmth, it is giving us cold because of the switches in the pressure gradiants. I would suggest, as this is new to me in my studies, that the negative switch is going to result in more ice, and thicker ice. The tansition this year was late, but now that it has happened, it is accelerating. Past history of temps from the mid 1940's show long warm falls just after the PDO switch. I am quit surprised how much the same the climate is following that switch now.
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Post by 6waldog on Dec 9, 2009 19:58:52 GMT
www.athropolis.com/map-nunavut.htmI like to check athropolis daily to get an idea of temp. trends. Looking a few minutes ago the 2:00 pm reports showed cold to very cold weather in the Nunavut area which includes Hudson Bay and James Bay. Checking a North to South string of reporting sites these were last hours temps. Alert -26 F Resolute -18F Repulse Bay -20F Whale Cove -20F Arviat -29F The Southeast corner of the Nunavut area, in James Bay showed a warmer bit, at 16F Those reports are all conducive to cooling water and ice formation Cheers,
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Post by brian0707 on Dec 9, 2009 20:10:26 GMT
Thanks Sigurdur, appreciate your thoughts. My own view as a reasonably well informed non-scientist is that it seems apparent the Arctic sea ice is much more dynamic than Antarctica due to the absence of an underlying land mass. The effects of the oceans should be a dominant feature of Arctic sea ice cycles.
And using that line of reasoning, the effects on adjacent ice bound land masses like Greenland might be similar but more muted - in each direction.
Finally, its interesting to me that there seems to be lots of literature, not all scientific, supporting relatively rapid expansions and contractions of the arctic ice - on decadal time scales or less. In his 1966 book, The Polar Passion, Farley Mowat, a Canadian writer and ardent environmentalist, spent a whole chapter devoted to accounts from Inuit people and early European history of the lure of the NW Passage. The accounts are of rapid advances and recessions of the summer ice - and countless tragedies.
Mr. Mowat has more recently been accused of presenting fictional events as fact in his other stories; but there was no reason or context for him to fudge the facts in that earlier book. And there is no question he spent much of his early career in the Arctic learning the history and folklore of the native peoples firsthand.
And, of course, then there's the Vikings and Greenland.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 9, 2009 21:29:16 GMT
Thanks Sigurdur, appreciate your thoughts. My own view as a reasonably well informed non-scientist is that it seems apparent the Arctic sea ice is much more dynamic than Antarctica due to the absence of an underlying land mass. The effects of the oceans should be a dominant feature of Arctic sea ice cycles. And using that line of reasoning, the effects on adjacent ice bound land masses like Greenland might be similar but more muted - in each direction. Finally, its interesting to me that there seems to be lots of literature, not all scientific, supporting relatively rapid expansions and contractions of the arctic ice - on decadal time scales or less. In his 1966 book, The Polar Passion, Farley Mowat, a Canadian writer and ardent environmentalist, spent a whole chapter devoted to accounts from Inuit people and early European history of the lure of the NW Passage. The accounts are of rapid advances and recessions of the summer ice - and countless tragedies. Mr. Mowat has more recently been accused of presenting fictional events as fact in his other stories; but there was no reason or context for him to fudge the facts in that earlier book. And there is no question he spent much of his early career in the Arctic learning the history and folklore of the native peoples firsthand. And, of course, then there's the Vikings and Greenland. In the link that 6waldog so graciously provided there is the history of the North West Passage. OF note is the sailing of the northern deep water passage in 1944 by the St Roch. I had not realized that it has sailed it during 1941-42 as well, but that journey took 21 months, verses the 88 day journey in 1944. This is the period that I always compare the 2005-2007 Arctic Sea Ice extent too as it is climatically compareable to the trend now. Thank you for the author. I had forgotten about his books. I am going to have my wife get me that book again....thanks again.
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Post by hunter on Dec 10, 2009 13:41:54 GMT
True for later on once the water is covered with ice. But while the water is transitioning to ice, a lot of heat is expressed. This goes in conjuntion with the fastest freeze since 1970. Hmmm, arctic ocean... 2.8% of the earth's surface receiving 1/3 the energy received at the equator...not really much albedo feedback available, is there? Has to be under .9%...but the ice would continue to provide some albedo for most of the year and the lack of ice would mean there'd be 1-2 meters of ice formed every year (.25% to .5% of the earth's entire energy budget, BTW to make 13million square miles of ice). Doesn't seem like the overall potential for feedback there is significant. I think when rational reviews of the AGW hysteria are made, the Arctic ice will be a source of much study. There has never been much energy up there to start with. There has always been good historical evidence for a dynamic Arctic sea ice system with huge swings in coverage. There has been good evidence of the power of soot to accelerate the melting of ice. The studies of sea currents controlling ice extent have been well done, but ignored. But AGW promoters seize on any weather fluctuation and form an apocalyptic explanation around it to make CO2 *the* culprit, at the expense of other explanations.
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Post by richdo on Dec 11, 2009 0:38:02 GMT
Looks like Hudson Bay is, as expected, freezing up. FWIW - I went back and loked at the JAXA visuals www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e for previous years and estimated these dates for complete ice-over of the bay: 12/22/2008 12/17/2007 1/10/2007 12/30/2005 12/13/2004 1/4/2004 12/14/2002 Just my old eyes looking at the pictures so take with a grain of salt, but thought it might be interesting to see how this year compares.
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Post by hilbert on Dec 12, 2009 0:13:13 GMT
This doesn't seem to have been updated for a couple / few days--is something going on? (Maybe that's a tiny red dot at the right-hand edge of the graph?)
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Post by boxman on Dec 12, 2009 0:30:23 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 12, 2009 1:14:30 GMT
Its a sign of desperation when they have to resort to obvious falsehoods to try to win a political point. Its not unlike waiting till midsummer and switching off the air conditioning in the meeting room in the Capitol building for the debate on global warming.
When politicians try to win a debate they are not dispassionate seekers after truth. This is shown by the IPCC meetings in Tanzania reported recently where the intent was to WIN the argument not to be right.
If the hypothesis of AGW is falsified these politicians will take no notice whatsoever and carry on as if it had been proven.
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Post by thingychambers69 on Dec 12, 2009 20:17:45 GMT
Ignore it. Obama and Gore getting the Nobel Prize shows how far gone the Norwegian elite are.
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Post by boxman on Dec 13, 2009 15:51:25 GMT
Ignore it. Obama and Gore getting the Nobel Prize shows how far gone the Norwegian elite are. You are correct.. The government and Nobel committee are all mostly hypocritical extremists on the left side. But it is sadly hard for me to ignore it since i live in this country and is affected personally by their stupidity. We already have the highest car taxes in world, highest road taxes, very high gasoline taxes and so on. Our car park are one if not the oldest and most "polluting" in Europe since most people simply cannot afford to replace their old unsafe car. Our road infrastructure is now also worst in all of Europe since there has been literally no improvement of road infrastructure in decades since the politicians are very heavily anti cars. The current budget is not even enough to keep the low standard that is today and for every day. Experts say that nearly half of the deaths caused by traffic accidents here could be avoided if our road standard was more like in Sweden. This is how goods are transported from one part of the country to anoyher in norway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMD1KW4WTGMEdit: And today it was revealed that less people buy new cars today thanks to taxes being raised earlier this year. Now the government has proposed a new tax increase due to lower tax incomes since less people buy new cars. They have apparently made themselves completely dependent on those taxes to fund stuff like schools, health care and so on. So what we will get now is higher taxes on even small cars as well as well as a GPS to monitor your driving and tax you further based on your driving habits. This country is going to he*l Our car park is already among the oldest and most pollutive in Europe since so few can afford to replace their old unsafe/pollutive car.
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Post by hunter on Dec 14, 2009 22:27:58 GMT
The latest AGW position is that the ice is 'rotten', so the extent numbers are not credible. Kiwistonewall, and others who are well informed, could you please review this for us?
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Post by sentient on Dec 14, 2009 23:04:56 GMT
I got a question today regarding sea ice extent and the reports that it is the lowest since (insert value here, I don't remember the year he quoted). I have not been tracking sea ice extent or keeping up with this thread, but I seem to remember seeing (somewhere) that sea ice, or polar ice, has pretty much recovered to its 1979 levels, since records have been kept (from memory).
I would imagine this has happened in the past several years if it is true.
Those of you here obviously track this better than I do, are there any relevant papers I should be aware of? Well peer-reviewed papers, whatever that means these days.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 15, 2009 4:59:07 GMT
The latest AGW position is that the ice is 'rotten', so the extent numbers are not credible. Kiwistonewall, and others who are well informed, could you please review this for us? And the Jaxa site is down - last 3 days of data is lost(for now) - they have reverted to the 10th. Similarly, the Scatter data hasn't updated for 19 days. QuikScat: manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/qscat_ice.plLooks like we are going to be denied the data! But the reality is that the ice is much as it always has been, and the satellites underestimate, never overestimate, the ice.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 15, 2009 8:01:38 GMT
The latest AGW position is that the ice is 'rotten', so the extent numbers are not credible. Kiwistonewall, and others who are well informed, could you please review this for us? And the Jaxa site is down - last 3 days of data is lost(for now) - they have reverted to the 10th. Similarly, the Scatter data hasn't updated for 19 days. QuikScat: manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/qscat_ice.plLooks like we are going to be denied the data! But the reality is that the ice is much as it always has been, and the satellites underestimate, never overestimate, the ice. "But the reality is that the ice is much as it always has been,"And that is extremely awkward for certain people in Copenhagen And all the ice sensing satellites have gone down Does anyone still believe in coincidences?
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