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Post by 6waldog on Dec 15, 2009 16:02:43 GMT
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mwil
New Member
Posts: 1
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Post by mwil on Dec 15, 2009 18:06:53 GMT
The latest AGW position is that the ice is 'rotten', so the extent numbers are not credible. Kiwistonewall, and others who are well informed, could you please review this for us? Hunter, I have never posted here before. But I can not resist this one. For once I have an opportunity to contribute to science. It should be obvious to all that the Artic sea ice is in fact rotten. How could it be anything else? After Sarah & John lost the election, Sarah had her enormous wardrode shipped in a convoy of 18 wheelers along with several more 18 wheelers full of washing machines and laundry detergent. Her continuous washing of this world record size personal wardrobe is leaching pollution from the laundy detergent in a proximity much to close to this artic ice. The Artic ice has been rotten ever since! I think this was her plan all along to throw off the satellite measurements to cover up the melting. She knew laundry detergent foam would look like ice from a satellite. Not only this but Al was actually correct yesterday in Copenhagen that the ice will all be gone in 5 years. It is just Sarah is tricking the satellites with her foam.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 16, 2009 2:08:04 GMT
Jaxa have recovered the data back to the point of the crash, (i.e. the lost three days of data are back) but they have posted no further data - so are two days or so behind.
It is possible they shut down for the Geminids meteor shower (14th December) but no mention of what or why the problem.
Hopefully, they'll be back up & running shortly.
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Post by graywolf on Dec 16, 2009 4:20:02 GMT
Gore's statement at Cop15 on Monday (after his Sunday night natter with the top ice scientists at the meet) makes me wonder whether you Guys are gonna get more reason to moan when the new algorithm for denoting 'rotten perennial' is added to the ice age/type plots? It appears to me that when a 10mile chunk of 6m thick perennial slumps into the 2m thickness that ICESat/Grace assure us the average thickness are it would triple the 'extent' (if there are no gaps) that it used to cover. Should the perennial have been doing it's 'slump and spread' trick since at least 02', when the ICESat study began, that's a lot of Faux extent is it not?
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Post by dwerth on Dec 16, 2009 4:55:58 GMT
Jaxa has apparently come back up. My guess is that they had either a software glitch, or a temporary shutdown due to the meteor shower that Kiwi mentioned. Current extent is 11.5 million km2. I am currently away from home, so I do not know how much under the mean extent that is, however, it has grown over 200,000 km2 in the last two days (minimum). Average growth for this time period is 50,000 km2, so we are making at least a small dent in the deficit.
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Post by brian0707 on Dec 16, 2009 6:15:48 GMT
I continue to notice that the sea ice progression is noticably ahead of the 79-00 average in the North Pacific while lagging somewhat in the North Atlantic. Winds, oscillations or other causes?
Of note on the NSIDC satellite "picture" of the ice, small pockets are showing as far south as Honshu in the Japans. I have no idea if such occurence is typical or not.
If not, again wonder if we are beginning to see the influence of a negative PDO cycle.
Probably nothing. And even if unusual, unlike the warmers, not a basis to predict a trend.
The rotten and immature ice arguments are nothing more than a crock in my opinion. If the summer ice extent has been in an undeniably recessionary trend for the early part of the decade, it follows that as the trend reverses itself, the new ice will be initially thinner and immature. Its effectively the same argument as saying the global temperatures are still in a warming trend by enlarging the averaging periods used for "smoothing" the data.
Silly when you are working with real time data rather than reconstructions with large error boundaries.
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Post by brian0707 on Dec 16, 2009 6:18:36 GMT
Apologies, should have said Hokkaido not Honshu.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 16, 2009 9:44:50 GMT
NSIDC appears to be falsely showing ice in some places - it is very hard for the satellites to work out ice/weather/coast/snow margins. If the ice "appears" in a strange spot for this time of year, it is more likely noise.
Yes, Jaxa is back up for whatever reason, with a couple of massive increases. I suspect that the reality is more likely smooth growth, with weather effects on the satellite giving the appearance of erratic growth.
The Hudson is freezing over quickly, and the Barents is catching up with the "mean"
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Post by Pooh on Dec 16, 2009 17:06:57 GMT
At risk of repeating a previous post, Data of Sea Ice Extent The latest value : 11,526,094 km2 (December 15, 2009) IARC-JAXA Sea Ice Extent www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htmNaturally, the satellites must be picking up rotten ice and slush. Not to confused with slush funds.
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Post by hairball on Dec 16, 2009 17:25:15 GMT
My God, Hudson Bay pretty much totally froze in less than 10 days! Probably totally normal but that's an awesome amount of ice for someone as ignorant as myself.
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Post by magellan on Dec 17, 2009 2:31:43 GMT
Be watching for a possible very large spike in Arctic temps in the coming weeks.
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Post by enginer on Dec 17, 2009 3:03:33 GMT
Be watching for a possible very large spike in Arctic temps in the coming weeks. This is a serious reply. I follow arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ and look at the artic AND the antarctic ice extend and trend. Without using statistics, I am sure that temporary increases/decreases in one are balanced 80% of the time by opposite decreases/increases in the other. Bastardi @ accuweather is certain that arctic cold will deposit deep snow cover over most of the USA. Anecdotally, it seems that whenever an Alberta Clipper rushes thru the center US the Arctic temperature, and often the ice loss, spikes up. Its hard for me to believe, but maybe there IS a thermal budget in the climate!
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 18, 2009 3:15:55 GMT
My latest charts Attachments:
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 18, 2009 3:19:53 GMT
Commentary on the charts:
2009 is now ahead of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
but still behind 2002,2003 & 2004.
So well into recovery.
Ice is growing strong at a rate (smoothed over 15 days) of 80,000 sq kms/day, whereas the 1979-2000 mean rate for this time is about 55,000 sq kms/day.
As long as the rate is greater than the mean, 2009 will keep gaining on the mean.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 18, 2009 3:41:24 GMT
Kiwistonewall: Thank you for the work that you do on the ice. You are by far the most accurate source that I have found.
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