|
Post by jimcripwell on Aug 4, 2009 0:39:34 GMT
neilhamp writes "Lets wait and see if Jim is right for 2009"
Now I am scared; someone thinks I might be right. Please, neilhamp, dont put too much credence in my idle musings.
|
|
|
Post by steve on Aug 4, 2009 7:05:31 GMT
steve writes "Sounds like weasel words to me" This looks like heads you win, tails I lose. When I am vague about what I base my predictions on, glc accuses me of basing them on absolutely nothing. When I state as best I can what my basis is, then it is weasel wording. Jim, you did somewhat qualify your prediction (as you should). But "weasel words" was your quote to describe other people's qualified predictions, so I think you should take a gentle ribbing with good humour. Both you and I were wildly wrong in our guesses for 2008 (in the same direction). This year I'm not making a specific guess. But I will stick with my general principle of last year that arctic sea ice will in the end be seen to have followed the 30 year trend line, which again is what you have said I think. [weaselwords]I do however think that the evidence of 2007 suggests that an even more exceptional year as ice gets gradually thinner is not out of the question in the next decade.[/weaselwords]
|
|
|
Post by socold on Aug 4, 2009 18:48:11 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Col 'NDX on Aug 4, 2009 19:59:52 GMT
" Expert Opinion" - just what exactly is that? I'm an expert in not very much, but I don't give an opinion about it
|
|
|
Post by socold on Aug 4, 2009 20:02:45 GMT
It's delegation to people better able to predict it than me. I could try my own analysis but it's almost bound to be of an inferior basis to people who have studied ice behavior more than me (which is nearly everyone).
Weighing up the high cost to me of spending hours on it vs the low reward I choose to spend no time on it and delegate my own prediction as that of others. In a way it's as if I have commissioned those scientists do figure it out for me. I don't consider myself more capable than them so I will go by what they have found for me. It could be wrong, but I think it's got less chance of being wrong than if I tried to predict it myself.
|
|
|
Post by Col 'NDX on Aug 4, 2009 20:07:00 GMT
Like the IPCC, you mean?
|
|
|
Post by ron on Aug 4, 2009 20:13:49 GMT
It's delegation to people better able to predict it than me. Blah blah blah blah blahbitty blah blah blah Weighing up the high cost to me blah blah blah blah blahbitty blah blah blah What a bunch of hooey!
|
|
|
Post by Col 'NDX on Aug 4, 2009 20:15:53 GMT
|
|
|
Post by poitsplace on Aug 4, 2009 20:36:38 GMT
I get the feeling the jet stream is right where its supposed to be. Everyone simply assumed the jetstream moved north in response to AGW but there's absolutely no proof of that. It's likely the northern trek of the jet stream was just an aspect of natural warming (which would continue fluctuations even if the base temperature rose). Now that the currents are switching back into cooling mode, the jet stream and the various hardiness zones will be heading back.
|
|
|
Post by byz on Aug 4, 2009 22:04:40 GMT
I get the feeling the jet stream is right where its supposed to be. Everyone simply assumed the jetstream moved north in response to AGW but there's absolutely no proof of that. It's likely the northern trek of the jet stream was just an aspect of natural warming (which would continue fluctuations even if the base temperature rose). Now that the currents are switching back into cooling mode, the jet stream and the various hardiness zones will be heading back. The jetstream in the UK is definitely too far south this summer ( in fact for the last 3 years). How can I be certain? The weather records here in the UK stretch back more than 200 years and during the Summer the main influence has been the Azores High (it has been shown as the standard summer condition in countless books about weather for the last 30 years). For the last 3 Summers it has hardly had any influence as the Jetstream is to low thus keeping it south of the UK and the Atlantic Oscillation has been negative virtually all Summer! We are living in interesting times (they stop getting interesting when we get continuous crop failure
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Aug 4, 2009 22:55:49 GMT
The jetstream normally sits on the northern periphery of the Hadley cells, these are the large scale convective cells in the tropics. It would appear that the extent of these cells has reduced equatorwards presumably as a result of either cooler oceans or some other effect. This might be explained by the negative PDO and other oscillations. It could also explain the lower tradewinds that _almost_ allowed an El Nino. The overall effect would appear to be less heat transport northward that could also explain the growline issues in Canada.
Perhaps someone who studies these things in more depth could step in and say what the likely effect will be on the Northern winter and the thaw/freeze of the Arctic.
|
|
|
Post by woodstove on Aug 4, 2009 23:30:50 GMT
|
|
|
Post by neilhamp on Aug 5, 2009 1:08:02 GMT
The NSIDC report is out
"The average pace of ice loss during July 2009 was nearly identical to that of July 2007. Ice loss sped up during the third week of July, and slowed again during the last few days of the month.
Averaged for the month, July 2009 saw a decline rate in ice extent of 106,000 square kilometers (41,000 square miles) per day. For comparison, the rate of decline for July 2007 was 107,000 square kilometers (41,000 square miles) per day and the July 2008 rate of decline was 94,000 square kilometers (36,000 square miles) per day. The Arctic Ocean lost a total of 3.19 million square kilometers (1.23 million square miles) of ice during July 2009, and dropped below ice extent at this time in 2008. "
|
|
|
Post by woodstove on Aug 5, 2009 1:53:04 GMT
I'm thinking kayaks! ;D
|
|
|
Post by LakeEffectKing on Aug 5, 2009 13:52:18 GMT
For those who think we are not on a medium term uptick in ice recovery, tell me how you would envision a true recovery? Over the last 2 years, IMO, if an ice pack were to recover....the current gradual rebuilding is the only way!! IOW, you can't build 2,3 or 4 year ice (multi-year ice) in ONE YEAR!!!!
|
|