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Post by radiant on Aug 15, 2009 11:18:17 GMT
Twice single handed around the world yachtie Philippe Pouponon on Fleur Australe with his his very young family were in Gjoa Haven yesterday! www.fleuraustrale.fr/index.php?post/2009/08/15/Gjoa-HavenGjoa Haven
August 14 17.00. We are mid way. It seems that we have finished this stage in record time, but this year is particularly full of ice in spite of slightly elevated temperatures. The hull and rudder only took a few bad shots during reversing and we are already fit to go. We up anchor tomorrow.
We learn today by an Eskimo corner there is probably more ice because the spring was late this year. Gjoa Haven is a small haven of peace, full of life. The sky is clear blue, the sun shines. Eskimo families are leaving, some fishing in the bay, others riding on their quad. We make quite an attraction. Since the boats arrival, the Flower is the object of all eyes. All come to us, want to know how long we left France, where the ice was not too arduous and thousand and one other questions. It's not every day that a boat is in the bay and even less with four children on board. They are delighted.
Here the ghost of Roald Amunsen is around us. He was the first to make the passage in 1906. He over wintered here to study the earths magnetism and gave the village the name of his boat Gjoa. Portraits of him are almost everywhere.
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Post by hilbert on Aug 15, 2009 16:11:23 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Aug 15, 2009 18:59:54 GMT
I think the broken vertical lines indicate that the data for that portion of the graph are as yet unfiltered.
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Post by hilbert on Aug 16, 2009 13:30:35 GMT
Please forgive my ignorance: does filtered mean that certain suspect data are discarded, or what?
Thanks.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2009 16:02:23 GMT
Please forgive my ignorance: does filtered mean that certain suspect data are discarded, or what? Thanks. Looking at similar patterns back in May I would presume that the signal is occasionally noisy and value spikes that are extreme outliers are discarded.
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Post by matt on Aug 16, 2009 17:35:16 GMT
2009 is sure an interesting year. The ice has spread out thinner than any year I can remember. Looking at nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.pngand only the area between the North Pole, Svalbard, and Greenland is still white, as in nearly 100% ice coverage. The end of year volume and age numbers will probably be new records. The extent will be like 2008 but more so, where it becomes a race between very thin ice and the declining sunlight.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2009 18:56:35 GMT
2009 is sure an interesting year. The ice has spread out thinner than any year I can remember. Looking at nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.pngand only the area between the North Pole, Svalbard, and Greenland is still white, as in nearly 100% ice coverage. The end of year volume and age numbers will probably be new records. The extent will be like 2008 but more so, where it becomes a race between very thin ice and the declining sunlight. So thinner than Matt can remember is now a metric? I thought you said that it was going to be ice free and that people would be sailing straight across?
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Post by Col 'NDX on Aug 16, 2009 19:29:42 GMT
Big increase. The doom and gloom spin doctors won't know how to handle this
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Post by matt on Aug 16, 2009 20:22:58 GMT
So thinner than Matt can remember is now a metric? I thought you said that it was going to be ice free and that people would be sailing straight across? Yeah, eyeballing concentration images isn't the most accurate, is it? But the character of the ice has changed over the past decade. It used to be more solid, with a fringe where it was melting. Now there is more fringe and less solid. Do you see differently? And yes, the NE passage is a shard away from opening up for clear sailing.
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Post by woodstove on Aug 16, 2009 20:50:49 GMT
AGW dogma relies on the absence of variability in the geologic record. This "absence" is a lie.
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Post by Col 'NDX on Aug 16, 2009 21:01:27 GMT
...which never happened before, right?
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Post by kiwistonewall on Aug 16, 2009 21:10:58 GMT
Yeah, eyeballing concentration images isn't the most accurate, is it? But the character of the ice has changed over the past decade. It used to be more solid, with a fringe where it was melting. Now there is more fringe and less solid. Do you see differently? And yes, the NE passage is a shard away from opening up for clear sailing. Only in the minds of the true believers, and those who are manipulating the data. (Not a value judgment- it is data which has to be manipulated, from radar 'temperatures' to a guesstimate of ice ....) Since the images show fading at about 90% and open water at about 75-80%(of the Canadian data) one has to treat the "images" with a lot of (dare I use) skepticism - (they are are (of course) Not images, but computer generated pixel maps of processed radar reflections.) Alaskan charts still show lots of dense ice as do Canadian. Alaska: pafc.arh.noaa.gov/data/ice/ice.pngNorth West passage doesn't look navigable this year ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/Ice_Can/Arctic/CVCHDSDNWP.gifTaking the Canadian Arctic as a whole, we are well ahead of the past two years, and well ahead of 1998 & 1999, and comparable to 1997 and 2000 (at 13th August)
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2009 21:18:06 GMT
...which never happened before, right? Not that Matt can remember no ;D
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Post by radiant on Aug 17, 2009 6:51:57 GMT
Arguing for no change seems as dubious as arguing for definite man made warming.
So far since ice in the northern hemi appears to have begun to retreat there have been recovery periods from 1880's to 1890's stabilisation in the 1915's to 1920's, accelerated melting from the 20's to 1940's, recovery from 1950's to 1973 and melting until now.
And now at this point in time during the last 5 days or so the arctic was very cold with temperatures possibly down to -7 in places with many -3 but by yesterday morning it was more or less zero in most places and places like northern Russia were very warm in high 20's. Meanwhile the sea is melting the ice from below.
Since we are only mid august it is likely we will go thru more cycles of cold and warm before minimum is reached.
Incidental the satellite pictures for at least around Greenland have been hard to read or incomplete the last few days which might create blips in the data for ice extent meanwhile? Temperatures are coming from buoys and ships.
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Post by jimcripwell on Aug 17, 2009 14:45:53 GMT
I use the Japanese data for sea ice area. I dont know if it is an omen, and the "Shape of Things to Come", but since I started noting data on July 21st 2009, the 16th of August showed to smallest daily loss of ice - just over 23,000 sq kms. Also we are now around 250,000 sq kms more ice on the same date as compared to 2008. And this number still seems to be increasing at just less than 30,000 sq kms per day.
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