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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 27, 2009 3:40:30 GMT
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Post by magellan on Jan 27, 2009 4:17:43 GMT
I was discussing at work today with several folks as many of us ice fish and snowmobile. We cannot recall a time in the last 25 years with as much ice so quickly, and it is thick. The first week of December had several lakes thick enough to ice race. The bay is now solid ice. No Gorebal warming here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU1YNFIShyg&feature=related
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Post by jimg on Jan 27, 2009 15:34:50 GMT
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Post by stanb999 on Jan 27, 2009 15:44:13 GMT
Your statements seem to be assuming it will reach an ice maximum in two weeks, It could build Ice till march so the max could be then. We could have more Ice than ever recorded. There is no reason ti think otherwise.
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Post by Pooh on Jan 27, 2009 17:47:07 GMT
...I was discussing at work today with several folks as many of us ice fish and snowmobile.... Time to rig the old iceboats? If the ice is fairly smooth, they could reach 50+ mph. Exciting and newsworthy with spectacular photos/videos. Headline: "First iceboat race since 19?? sponsored by the IPCC" ;D
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Post by magellan on Jan 27, 2009 21:19:58 GMT
Being Michigan, it can turn on a dime and warm up quickly so I don't put faith in any forecasts for this state. NOAA was so miserably wrong (again), but 4 weeks of one type of weather here is not something to expect. We shall see.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 27, 2009 22:00:11 GMT
As at the 29th?? January: I thought its the 27th in US/Canada? In 37 years, only two years exceed the current Great Lakes Freeze: 1994, and 1977, though both these years has even more ice at this date than this year. ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/Ice_Can/GL/CVCHDCTGL.gifThe charts at ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPageDsp.cfm?id=11890&Lang=enghaven't all been updated: some are at the 22nd (done on the 19th) and some at the 29th (done on the 26th/27th?) Whatever, assuming dates are consistent, the overall picture is that the current freeze is a one in 15 year event at least, way ahead of anything in the last 15 years. So the children of the Great Lakes have a year to remember this year.
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Post by stanb999 on Jan 27, 2009 22:38:54 GMT
As at the 29th?? January: I thought its the 27th in US/Canada? In 37 years, only two years exceed the current Great Lakes Freeze: 1994, and 1977, though both these years has even more ice at this date than this year. ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/Ice_Can/GL/CVCHDCTGL.gifThe charts at ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPageDsp.cfm?id=11890&Lang=enghaven't all been updated: some are at the 22nd (done on the 19th) and some at the 29th (done on the 26th/27th?) Whatever, assuming dates are consistent, the overall picture is that the current freeze is a one in 15 year event at least, way ahead of anything in the last 15 years. So the children of the Great Lakes have a year to remember this year. I think the report is done by week ending?
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 27, 2009 23:32:19 GMT
The dates are every 7 days - so 15th, 22nd, 29th etc - The pattern was set years ago, and the habit of doing it two days or so in advance may be just a habit. As long as they have always done this, I guess it matters not.
Just be aware that the dates are after the reality by a day or so. (Trying to stop others getting as confused as I am, but I guess no danger of that! ;D)
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Post by magellan on Jan 28, 2009 0:52:12 GMT
What happens very often is a warm front moves in and we get rain for two or three days in January or February. Depending on the amount, the ice can be decimated rapidly.
Of course its not easy to find out if this happened or not in 1994/1977 in December like it did this winter. If that had not happened, it is possible the ice coverage would be much greater compared to those other years.
Regardless, this winter is 180 out of phase from the forecasts. I don't recall so many below zero mornings in my adult life. Fortunately there hasn't been much high winds to accompany it; that would not be a good thing.
February should tell all, and it wouldn't be surprising if we get a whopper of a storm in March. Thus far we haven't had excessive snow in January. The storms are skidding by us (knock on wood), bu the south and NE are getting hammered.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 30, 2009 1:28:35 GMT
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Post by hilbert on Jan 30, 2009 2:01:59 GMT
The prediction is for the next five days to be cold in Chicago, highs varying from 14 to 34 F. Any guesses as to whether Superior will freeze over?
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Post by hilbert on Jan 30, 2009 5:15:06 GMT
I meant this winter, not this week, of course.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 30, 2009 5:38:02 GMT
Well at the rate it is going, it could well be in a week. I expect 10% ice minimum total cover within 10 days, and at least 40% minimum total ice cover by mid Feb. (I mean the whole lake covered with at least these levels of ice.
Provided the forecasters are wrong, and we don't return to "normal" temperatures.
The December forecast (using current "models") was: (See first post in this thread for the full document.
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Post by jimg on Jan 30, 2009 6:20:57 GMT
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