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Post by peakoil on Jan 29, 2009 12:30:30 GMT
www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE50S0OA20090129?sp=trueSYDNEY (Reuters) - A heatwave scorching southern Australia, causing transport chaos by buckling rail lines and leaving more than 140,000 homes without power, is a sign of climate change, the government said on Thursday. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a total of six days of 40-plus Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) temperatures for southern Australia, which would equal the worst heatwave in 100 years. Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said the heatwave, which started on Wednesday, was the sort of weather scientists had been warning about. "Eleven of the hottest years in history have been in the last 12, and we also note, particularly in the southern part of Australia, we're seeing less rainfall," Wong told reporters. "All of this is consistent with climate change, and all of this is consistent with what scientists told us would happen." The maximum temperature in southern Australia on Thursday was 46 degrees Celsius (114.8 Fahrenheit) in four towns. While uncomfortable for residents in towns and some of Australia's biggest cities, the heatwave was seen as having little effect on Australia's commodities-driven economy, with the worst of the weather away from the nation's grain belt. Health officials in South Australia and Victoria states have advised people to stay indoors, use air conditioners and keep up fluid intake. More than 140,000 homes were without power in southern Australia as the heat took its toll on the power grid. National power regulator NEMCO told electricity companies to start load-shedding, temporarily taking customers off power to lighten the load. In Melbourne, which recorded its hottest day in 70 years at 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) on Thursday, rail lines buckled and trains were canceled, stranding thousands of hot and angry commuters. Free bottled water was handed out to train travelers in Adelaide to help them cope with the delays and heat. The heatwave forced the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne to suspend outside matches, with officials closing the retractable roof over the main stadium for the past two days. Australia is one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change due to its hot, dry climate and is already gripped by drought. Fire bans have been declared in southern Australia to prevent major bushfires but small fires are already burning. The extreme temperatures were threatening Melbourne's parks and gardens, said Mayor Robert Doyle, who announced an increase in water supplies to counter a 40 percent drop in soil moisture. "The signs are there that our precious trees are struggling in this brutal weather," said Doyle. Melbourne has 60,000 trees in its parks and streets and officials said they were most concerned about 15,000 trees growing in irrigated turf. "Our parks staff have indicated a number of trees are defoliating and canopies are thinning. Once defoliation takes place it is very hard to save the tree," said Doyle. Greens Senator Scott Ludlam said the public transport breakdowns underscored the need to upgrade the nation's aging transport infrastructure to cope with climate change. "Taxpayers deserve public transport infrastructure that's resilient and able to withstand the changing climate," he said.
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Post by magellan on Jan 29, 2009 13:30:43 GMT
www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE50S0OA20090129?sp=trueSYDNEY (Reuters) - A heatwave scorching southern Australia, causing transport chaos by buckling rail lines and leaving more than 140,000 homes without power, is a sign of climate change, the government said on Thursday. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a total of six days of 40-plus Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) temperatures for southern Australia, which would equal the worst heatwave in 100 years. Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said the heatwave, which started on Wednesday, was the sort of weather scientists had been warning about. "Eleven of the hottest years in history have been in the last 12, and we also note, particularly in the southern part of Australia, we're seeing less rainfall," Wong told reporters. "All of this is consistent with climate change, and all of this is consistent with what scientists told us would happen." The maximum temperature in southern Australia on Thursday was 46 degrees Celsius (114.8 Fahrenheit) in four towns. While uncomfortable for residents in towns and some of Australia's biggest cities, the heatwave was seen as having little effect on Australia's commodities-driven economy, with the worst of the weather away from the nation's grain belt. Health officials in South Australia and Victoria states have advised people to stay indoors, use air conditioners and keep up fluid intake. More than 140,000 homes were without power in southern Australia as the heat took its toll on the power grid. National power regulator NEMCO told electricity companies to start load-shedding, temporarily taking customers off power to lighten the load. In Melbourne, which recorded its hottest day in 70 years at 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) on Thursday, rail lines buckled and trains were canceled, stranding thousands of hot and angry commuters. Free bottled water was handed out to train travelers in Adelaide to help them cope with the delays and heat. The heatwave forced the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne to suspend outside matches, with officials closing the retractable roof over the main stadium for the past two days. Australia is one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change due to its hot, dry climate and is already gripped by drought. Fire bans have been declared in southern Australia to prevent major bushfires but small fires are already burning. The extreme temperatures were threatening Melbourne's parks and gardens, said Mayor Robert Doyle, who announced an increase in water supplies to counter a 40 percent drop in soil moisture. "The signs are there that our precious trees are struggling in this brutal weather," said Doyle. Melbourne has 60,000 trees in its parks and streets and officials said they were most concerned about 15,000 trees growing in irrigated turf. "Our parks staff have indicated a number of trees are defoliating and canopies are thinning. Once defoliation takes place it is very hard to save the tree," said Doyle. Greens Senator Scott Ludlam said the public transport breakdowns underscored the need to upgrade the nation's aging transport infrastructure to cope with climate change. "Taxpayers deserve public transport infrastructure that's resilient and able to withstand the changing climate," he said. Hello Drive-by. You can always count on Reuters to report the news without political content; no obvious bias in that article.
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dc51
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 97
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Post by dc51 on Jan 29, 2009 19:46:43 GMT
www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE50S0OA20090129?sp=trueSYDNEY (Reuters) - A heatwave scorching southern Australia, causing transport chaos by buckling rail lines and leaving more than 140,000 homes without power, is a sign of climate change, the government said on Thursday. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a total of six days of 40-plus Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) temperatures for southern Australia, which would equal the worst heatwave in 100 years. Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said the heatwave, which started on Wednesday, was the sort of weather scientists had been warning about. "Eleven of the hottest years in history have been in the last 12, and we also note, particularly in the southern part of Australia, we're seeing less rainfall," Wong told reporters. "All of this is consistent with climate change, and all of this is consistent with what scientists told us would happen." The maximum temperature in southern Australia on Thursday was 46 degrees Celsius (114.8 Fahrenheit) in four towns. While uncomfortable for residents in towns and some of Australia's biggest cities, the heatwave was seen as having little effect on Australia's commodities-driven economy, with the worst of the weather away from the nation's grain belt. Health officials in South Australia and Victoria states have advised people to stay indoors, use air conditioners and keep up fluid intake. More than 140,000 homes were without power in southern Australia as the heat took its toll on the power grid. National power regulator NEMCO told electricity companies to start load-shedding, temporarily taking customers off power to lighten the load. In Melbourne, which recorded its hottest day in 70 years at 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) on Thursday, rail lines buckled and trains were canceled, stranding thousands of hot and angry commuters. Free bottled water was handed out to train travelers in Adelaide to help them cope with the delays and heat. The heatwave forced the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne to suspend outside matches, with officials closing the retractable roof over the main stadium for the past two days. Australia is one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change due to its hot, dry climate and is already gripped by drought. Fire bans have been declared in southern Australia to prevent major bushfires but small fires are already burning. The extreme temperatures were threatening Melbourne's parks and gardens, said Mayor Robert Doyle, who announced an increase in water supplies to counter a 40 percent drop in soil moisture. "The signs are there that our precious trees are struggling in this brutal weather," said Doyle. Melbourne has 60,000 trees in its parks and streets and officials said they were most concerned about 15,000 trees growing in irrigated turf. "Our parks staff have indicated a number of trees are defoliating and canopies are thinning. Once defoliation takes place it is very hard to save the tree," said Doyle. Greens Senator Scott Ludlam said the public transport breakdowns underscored the need to upgrade the nation's aging transport infrastructure to cope with climate change. "Taxpayers deserve public transport infrastructure that's resilient and able to withstand the changing climate," he said. Funny, when it's hot, it's climate change and when it's cold, it's just weather!!
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 29, 2009 20:35:15 GMT
Heatwave caused by solar minimum?? 1875 had a similar heat wave- this was also in an extended minimum between a double peaked maximum and a much lower maximum in the following cycle.
Five of the six worst heatwave days occurred at the solar minimum.
The cause is a giant high pressure system over the deserts, sending a northerly blast over Victoria. (The heat is entirely unrelated to local GHG - the hot air comes from the far north)
Something to do with the solar minimums seems to enhance the effect.
This is only one of many heatwaves Victoria has had over the last 150 years or so. They are not getting worse. In fact we also had a record January low in parts of Melbourne, and a very cold start to the month. Things are going to average out at about the mean.
Several things to note: 1. The temperatures given on the media were not the official max for the Melbourne CBD, but had been cherry picked from somewhere. (Maybe the highest station in the greater Melbourne area.) 2. the Actual Date Mean - min/max
27th 26.5 - 16.6/36.4 28th 31.1 - 18.8/43.4 29th 34.7 - 25.7/43.7 (max is max 30 min reading, so may be revised upwards) 30th ....... so far appears somewhat cooler than yesterday.
Only one day gets in the 10 worst heatwave days.
Past heat waves are recorded here: 34.2 21 January 1997 (28.8/39.7) Sunspot minimum 34.2 15 December 1876 (24.7/43.7) ******Sunspot minimum 33.9 21 January 1875 (24.5/43.3) *******Sunspot minimum 33.9 25 February 1968 (26.9/40.9) (SS Max) 33.4 20 January 1875 (23.3/43.5) *******Sunspot minimum 33.3 27 January 1858 (25.2/41.5) rising cycle. 33.3 16 January 1960 (26.1/40.6) falling cycle 33.2 3 February 1993 (25.2/41.3) falling cycle. 33.1 20 January 1908 (23.6/42.7) (SS Max) 33.1 24 December 1920 (25.3/40.9) falling cycle
So we are having a repeat of weather from the 1875's where we also had two days over 43. Considering the growth in the heat island effect, this is COLDER.
So far for January, the mean minimum for Melbourne is still 0.3C below the 71-2000 mean in spite of the heatwave.
Repeating the IPCC (and generally accepted) fact that greenhouse effect raises night time temperatures we can confidently say that this heatwave is NOT an indication of AGW.
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Post by twawki on Jan 29, 2009 21:24:32 GMT
I concur Kiwi. The high centred off the east coast in the pacific is dragging hot air down from the north (high pressure systems rotate anticlockwise). Also of note is the significantly strong monsoon that is currently starting to fill Lake Eyre. The more full this gets the greater evaporation, the more moisture in the atmosphere picked up by cold fronts and brought across to the east coast where the great dividing range triggers a dump. As the climate starts to shift into autumn/winter mode we could see a cold snowy trend building on last year and consistent with the la nina/cooling PDO cycle.
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Post by crakar24 on Jan 29, 2009 22:10:55 GMT
Heatwave caused by solar minimum?? 1875 had a similar heat wave- this was also in an extended minimum between a double peaked maximum and a much lower maximum in the following cycle. Five of the six worst heatwave days occurred at the solar minimum. The cause is a giant high pressure system over the deserts, sending a northerly blast over Victoria. (The heat is entirely unrelated to local GHG - the hot air comes from the far north) Something to do with the solar minimums seems to enhance the effect. This is only one of many heatwaves Victoria has had over the last 150 years or so. They are not getting worse. In fact we also had a record January low in parts of Melbourne, and a very cold start to the month. Things are going to average out at about the mean. Several things to note: 1. The temperatures given on the media were not the official max for the Melbourne CBD, but had been cherry picked from somewhere. (Maybe the highest station in the greater Melbourne area.) 2. the Actual Date Mean - min/max 27th 26.5 - 16.6/36.4 28th 31.1 - 18.8/43.4 29th 34.7 - 25.7/43.7 (max is max 30 min reading, so may be revised upwards) 30th ....... so far appears somewhat cooler than yesterday. Only one day gets in the 10 worst heatwave days.Past heat waves are recorded here: 34.2 21 January 1997 (28.8/39.7) Sunspot minimum 34.2 15 December 1876 (24.7/43.7) ******Sunspot minimum 33.9 21 January 1875 (24.5/43.3) *******Sunspot minimum 33.9 25 February 1968 (26.9/40.9) (SS Max) 33.4 20 January 1875 (23.3/43.5) *******Sunspot minimum 33.3 27 January 1858 (25.2/41.5) rising cycle. 33.3 16 January 1960 (26.1/40.6) falling cycle 33.2 3 February 1993 (25.2/41.3) falling cycle. 33.1 20 January 1908 (23.6/42.7) (SS Max) 33.1 24 December 1920 (25.3/40.9) falling cycle So we are having a repeat of weather from the 1875's where we also had two days over 43. Considering the growth in the heat island effect, this is COLDER. So far for January, the mean minimum for Melbourne is still 0.3C below the 71-2000 mean in spite of the heatwave. Repeating the IPCC (and generally accepted) fact that greenhouse effect raises night time temperatures we can confidently say that this heatwave is NOT an indication of AGW. Ah that explains why the Adelaide media said it was a record breaking heatwave, the hottest day in Adelaide was in 1939, the most consecutive days above 40 was set in 1908 which is 6. Including Friday (today) it will be 4 days above 40. And yet it is a record? I believe the chicken that said the sky is falling was named Penny as well.
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dc51
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 97
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Post by dc51 on Jan 29, 2009 22:38:31 GMT
I seem to remember reading somewhere that in the early days of the Egyptian empire, about 2000bc? they suffered a dreadful 100 year drought. at the same time northern Europe had a mini ice age.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 29, 2009 23:35:18 GMT
And I think I remember reading about 7 good years followed by 7 dry years years. The was a guy called Joe who did the long range forecast & Pharaoh was so impressed he made him the Vizier of all Egypt. (Sorta like Al Gore was the VP! ) Genesis chapter 41 I believe.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 30, 2009 1:05:51 GMT
I take solace in the fact that the temperatures in Southern Australia are NEARLY as hot as they were in 1908. Wonder what the CO2 ppm was then? I also take solace that I'm 2,000+ kilometers North and fifteen degrees celsius cooler.
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Post by bob9000 on Jan 30, 2009 9:21:53 GMT
This happens every six months, alternating between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
When I was a kid, we called it "summer". Nowadays its "catastrophic warming caused by carbon dioxide".
sigh.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 30, 2009 10:36:25 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jan 30, 2009 18:25:13 GMT
I have a fiddle here if any of you antipodeans wish to emulate Nero..........
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Post by Acolyte on Jan 30, 2009 22:46:49 GMT
I have a fiddle here if any of you antipodeans wish to emulate Nero.......... Leaving out the issue of Nero supposedly being responsible for the flames, & also leaving out whether or not CO 2 bears any responisibility for the heat here, given the amount of CO 2 actually produced in the antipodes, it would be the 'podes' that should be fiddling - we're the citizens of Rome, not causation. I'm wondering where are the headlines about how late in the summer this heatwave has come. It's the end of January! & finally we get hot days? Last year NY Eve & NY Day were both over 40º & the 29 th Dec was also 40º+ So how come this isn't being billed as 'Heat finally arrives for Summer'? Back in the late 80's we'd often be out fighting fire in early November, often in atrocious conditions. (Hot with northerly winds & electric storms setting new fires behind the fire lines) Two of the biggest were in a couple of weeks in late November in (think it was) 1989 when we had 6 choppers, 6 or 7 light planes doing water/fire retardant runs & upwards or 400 men on the ground. Not making light of the current fire conditions (hope you're safe there kiwi) but we've had worse. Let's not forget this is Australia![\i] where this kind of thing is an all too regular occurrence.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 31, 2009 1:48:47 GMT
If my home goes up, so do the transmission lines carrying two thirds of the power to Melbourne. The lines are not that close - but the bush is on the other side - so if my house burns, I have the consolation that two thirds of Melbourne suffers with me.
Its also why they put everything into fighting fires near my place - probably the safest suburb in Melbourne. ;D
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Post by twawki on Jan 31, 2009 2:14:08 GMT
The heat is wonderful - after 2 years this is REAL beach weather. Lovely to go down in the morning and late afternoon - an Australian way of life! and a long time between drinks. This used to be a regular occurrence and now its out of the ordinary.
Dont forget to fill up your gutters with water kiwi (temp. block the downpipes) have a hose ready and block any entry points to the roof. Cinder attack is one of the ways that houses catch fire. We had terrible ones here in 94 (Sutherland Shire) over 100 houses went and a few people sadly as well - but we will live near the bush because its wonderful but eucalyptus oil is highly flammable and fire is the way many of our trees regerminate.
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