Minimums and volcanism

[madman2001]

Several researchers make a case that volcanic eruptions were responsible for most of the cooling during the solar minimums. For example, this paper:

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/soap/pubs/papers/wagner_ClimDyn2005.pdf

states that "volcanic forcing is largely responsible for the temperature drop" during the Dalton Minimum.

While I suspect that volcanism was a contributing factor -- and perhaps the major direct cause of the temperature drop -- I nonetheless find it difficult to believe that the correlation of the solar minimums and the drops in global temperature was just coincidence.

So, has anyone made the case that the solar minimums somehow triggered a rise in volcanism?? Any links to, say, peer reviewed papers??

Let me know, and thanks,
Madman 2001

[questioneverything]

Here is a copy of an old discussion we have been having.

On the old forum there was an interesting discussion regarding the possible link between solar cycles etc. having an impact on volcanic and seismic activity.

Several of the largest earthquakes to hit China in the last 100 years have occurred at or near solar minimum. (1933, 1976 & 2008).

I am interested in further discussions on Volcanic and Earthquake activity related to solar minimums or maximums as some have postulated.

Here was one interesting article that was posted by someone regarding this theory.

Title: The Distribution of Great Earthquakes in Time
Authors: Shirley, J. H.
Affiliation: AA(California Institute of Technology-Jet Propulsion Laboratory, MS 183-601 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States ; [e-mail])
Publication: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #S33C-1473
Publication Date: 12/2007

An updated catalog of instrumentally recorded great shallow earthquakes has been assembled from standard sources. This compilation is based on the catalog of Pacheco & Sykes (BSSA 82, 1306, 1989) for the years 1900-1975, and on the Harvard CMT catalog for the years 1976-present. The updated catalog includes 78 great earthquakes with seismic moment >=10e21 Nm (moment magnitude Mw>=7.93). Annual and decadal totals of event frequency and seismic moment for earthquakes with Ms>= 7.0 have also been compiled to provide context and allow comparisons. We are at present experiencing a remarkable surge of great earthquake activity.

Nine great shallow earthquakes have occurred within the past 4 yr, a rate that is unprecedented in the catalog of instrumentally recorded events since 1900. In terms of worldwide seismic moment and energy release, the current "burst" of great earthquakes is the third largest in the record. This is an expected result, as the giant earthquakes of 1960 and 1964 each dominate burst episodes similar to the present one, and both of these earthquakes were larger than the Mw=9 Northern Sumatra event of 2004.

We find that great earthquakes contribute 84% of the total moment for the period Jan 1900-Aug 2007, which is also an expected result. However, great earthquakes did not dominate total seismic moment and energy release for the decades of the 1980s and 1990s, when great events were less frequent; the percentages for these decades were 37% and 40% respectively. The updated catalog reveals a strong tendency for clustering of great earthquakes in time.

This has been remarked upon by many investigators and has led to suggestions that the largest earthquakes may somehow be coupled on a planetary scale. To examine this tendency, we employ a simple descriptive method to discriminate between burst intervals and periods of quiescence (or "gaps"). Gaps are: 1) intervals of >3 yr that include no more than 1 great earthquake, or 2) intervals of >2 yr with 0 great earthquakes. All other periods were characterized by the occurrence of multiple closely spaced great earthquakes, termed bursts. Burst intervals span <39 of the 107+ years of the updated catalog, while including 91% of the great earthquakes. The event frequency during bursts is 1.84 yr-1, while the corresponding rate for gap intervals is 0.10 yr-1. The current burst duration of >4 yr exceeds the mean burst duration of 2.7 yr but is considerably shorter than that for the longest burst (11 yr).

While the physical origins of this temporal clustering remain mysterious, I report here the discovery of a remarkable and surprising correlation: The distribution of great earthquake occurrence times with respect to the 11-yr solar sunspot cycle is nonrandom at the 99.4% level. A bimodal distribution of phases is found, with increased event frequency found for the years approaching sunspot minima (as now), and with a second population found associated with sunspot maxima. A pronounced deficit of events is found for the intervening times, when solar activity is most rapidly rising, and then most rapidly falling. We will discuss four possible interpretations. This work was supported by the private resources of the author.

"Question Everything. Learn Something. Answer Nothing." - Euripides

"Most men can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, have proudly taught to others, and have woven thread by thread into the fabric of their lives." - Tolstoy

[kiwistonewall]

Big undersea Volcanic eruption at Tonga = well its a new island now.

Two active major vents

more photos at: www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/undersea_eruptions_near_tonga.html

[woodstove]

Feb 10, 2009 3:54:45 GMT madman2001 said:

Several researchers make a case that volcanic eruptions were responsible for most of the cooling during the solar minimums. For example, this paper:

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/soap/pubs/papers/wagner_ClimDyn2005.pdf

states that "volcanic forcing is largely responsible for the temperature drop" during the Dalton Minimum.

While I suspect that volcanism was a contributing factor -- and perhaps the major direct cause of the temperature drop -- I nonetheless find it difficult to believe that the correlation of the solar minimums and the drops in global temperature was just coincidence.

So, has anyone made the case that the solar minimums somehow triggered a rise in volcanism?? Any links to, say, peer reviewed papers??

Let me know, and thanks,
Madman 2001

SOLAR-PLANETARY-CLIMATE STRESS, EARTHQUAKES AND
VOLCANISM

(The paper, co-written by Self, Rampino, and Fairbridge, with the research funded by NASA, has the following first couple of paragraphs (including the abstract):

The largest volcanic eruptions since AD 1800 correlate with periods of enhanced seismicity, changes in the earth's spin rate, and the Chandler wobble. Furthermore, a marked increase in the number of major eruptions apparently occurred during the Maunder Sunspot Minimum (1645-1715) at a time when global temperatures were depressed. Solar activity might trigger volcanism through solar-induced climate
change which could lead to variations in global spin rate and hence to increased crustal stresses and seismic and volcanic potential. Such solar activity may be modulated by planetary tidal effects which might additionally lead to enhanced crustal stress through direct influence on the earth's axial tilt, wobble and rate of rotation.

Volcanic dust veils have often been suggested as a cause of periods of global cooling. While it has now been confirmed that some major historic volcanic eruptions have been followed by 0.2 C to 0.5 C decreasesing global or hemispheric mean temperature, several studies have demonstrated that volcanically induced cooling usually lasts for less than 5 years. Therefore, even large explosive volcanic eruptions seem unlikely to cause cooling trends of decadal or longer length. In a recent study we have found that many large explosive eruptions have been associated with such long-term cooling, but that, within the limits of dating, the cooling trends often began before the explosive eruptions. It is thus possible that rapid climatic cooling may in some way trigger volcanic eruptions, or alternatively that such coolings and volcanic eruptions may be linked through common causal mechanisms. We have therefore pursued the question further to explore the possible connections between volcanic activity and climate, and to search for common underlying causes of the two phenomena.

ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19900066907_1990066907.pdf

[william]

During Maunder and Dalton minimums there are significantly more and larger volcanic eruptions. When the sunspot activity is high there is less volcanic activity. This curious correlation continues throughout the planetary data. (i.e. It happens over and over again.)

It appears the strength of the mechanism (Whatever is causing the increase in volcanic activity) is related to how fast the sun changes from a high number of sunspots to a low number of sunspots.

As some authors have noted the increase in volcanic activity correlates with abrupt drops in the planet’s temperatures, in addition to correlating with a deep solar minimum.

Originally it was proposed and some authors still propose without quantitative analysis that the abrupt long term drop in temperature was caused by the volcanic eruption however a major eruption only cools the planet for a few years.

These very cold periods are greater than a hundred years so the mechanism that is cooling the planet must be different, however, what is causing the volcanic eruptions could also be causing the planet to abruptly cool.

“Volcanic eruptions and solar activity” by Richard Stothers

adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989JGR....9417371S

Quote:
The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism. (My comment. This mechanism guess is not correct.)

adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFMPP61A0298A

Quote:
The Role of Explosive Volcanism During the Cool Maunder Minimum
The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830.[1] Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years.[2] The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum. The precise cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period is not well understood. Recent papers have suggested that a rise in volcanism was largely responsible for the cooling trend.[3]

www.pnas.org/content/101/17/6...#otherarticles

[william]

(See link below). The reason for the 500,000 burn marks on the earth's surface on the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to Alabama that are elliptical in shape with the axis aligned in the Northwest direction, is the same reason why the volcanic activity increases during solar minimums and decreases during solar maximums. (Look at the picture in this paper. Imagine you are observing what is causing 500,000 burn marks that are aligned in the northwest direction. What could cause the burn marks?) Note there are overlapping burn marks. What could cause overlapping burn marks? Think of the earth moving and something starting and restarting. Note there are burn marks but no craters.

The Carolina Bay burn marks are dated incorrectly to coincide with the Younger Dryas cooling. There are other burn marks which coincide with Younger Dryas cooling. Both sets of burn marks are due to the same forcing mechanism.

Whether there are burn marks in the Northern or Southern hemisphere depends on whether perihelion occurs in January or July. The timing of the seasons is controlled by orbital precession which has a cycle of 21,000 years. The effect on the planet is greatest when orbital eccentricity is greatest.


The authors of this paper hypothesis is the burn marks were caused by extraterrestrial impacts. That is not correct. How could a meteoroid or a comet impact create 500,000 burn marks without craters?

www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16016/suppl/DC1

Carolina Bays. The Carolina Bays are a group of »500,000 highly elliptical and often overlapping depressions scattered throughout the Atlantic Coastal Plain from New Jersey to Alabama (see SI Fig. 7). They range from ≈50 m to ≈10 km in length (10) and are up to ≈15 m deep with their parallel long axes oriented predominately to the northwest.


Fig. 7. Aerial photo (U.S. Geological Survey) of a cluster of elliptical and often overlapping Carolina Bays with raised rims in Bladen County, North Carolina. The Bays have been contrast-enhanced and selectively darkened for greater clarity. The largest Bays are several kilometers in length, and the overlapping cluster of them in the center is 8 km long. Previous researchers have proposed that the Bays are impact-related features.

I believe the burn marks are caused by a special solar event that has a periodicity of around 7000 years. The affect of the solar event on the geomagnetic field is dependent on which hemisphere the strike occurs. The affect of the strike is also different when it occurs overland as compared to over the ocean. Ice sheets are an insulator and block the effect.

I believe the upcoming strike will be in the Southern Hemisphere in the region of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly.

This same mechanism (the strikes) is what causes the geomagnetic field to abruptly drop by a factor of 3 to 5 for 100,000 years during the glacial phase and to increase by a factor of 3 to 5 to create the interglacial period which coincides with the period when the earth's orbital eccentricity is greatest.

It is the drop in the geomagnetic field intensity that causes the abrupt long term drop in the planet's temperature. When the geomagnetic field is weak the GCR effect moves down to lower latitudes which amplifies the GCR mechanism capacity to cool the planet.

[william]

citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.128.1758&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Milankovitch's hypothesis is the urban myth of paleo-climatology.


Quantitative estimate of the Milankovitch-forced contribution to observed Quaternary climate change by Carl Wunsch

A number of records commonly described as showing control of climate change by Milankovitch insolation forcing are reexamined. The fraction of the record variance attributable to orbital changes never exceeds 20%. In no case, including a tuned core, do these forcing bands explain the overall behavior of the records. At zero order, all records are consistent with stochastic models of varying complexity with a small superimposed Milankovitch response, mainly in the obliquity band. Evidence cited to support the hypothesis that the 100 Ka glacial/interglacial cycles are controlled by the quasi-periodic insolation forcing is likely indistinguishable from chance, given the small sample size andnear-integer ratios of 100 Ka to the precessional periods. At the least, the stochastic background‘‘noise’’ is likely to be of importance.

[Maui]

I strongly believe that the Sun affects volcanism on Earth, perhaps by influencing nuclear fusion in volcanoes. Stother's NASA study finding a "weak" correlation uses a "Monte Carlo" simulation, which I challenge on the basis that proof of the 80-year old theory of Levy Flights questions use of random numbers in computer simulations.

The great solar scientist Maunder was awed by giant sunspots shortly before the climate-changing eruption of Krakatau. Size of sunspots may be an important factor also.

[questioneverything]

Mt. Redoubt going off now and then the Seattle area earthquake swarms and now 300+ earthquakes near the Salton Sea in Southern California.

Also this morning a moderate earthquake up in Northern California near San Jose. The map of California looks pretty active these days.

www.data.scec.org/recenteqs.html

[sizzler]

Re: William and Maui,

I have read the book 'Magnetic Reversals and Evolutionary Leaps' by Robert W. Felix (available from Amazon or the author's website Iceagenow.com). The book explains about increased volcanic and earthquake activity coinciding with periods where the Earth's magnetic field has declined, possibly due to changes in the flow of the Earth's outer core which generates the magnetic field.
The Younger Dryas, when the Carolina Bays were created, is referred to as the Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion, where the magnetic field strength fell to around 20% of the average. When the Earth's magnetic field strength declines, we lose our shielding from harmful radiation from space. This radiation (cosmic rays) converts stable Nitrogen-14 into radioactive Carbon-14 and Beryllium-10. The radiation from the C-14 created in the atmosphere can the lead to spontaneous explosions, which lead to the formation of the Carolina Bays.
William's plot of carbonate levels also shows peaks in carbonate levels which coincide with other geomagnetic excursions listed in the book (approx. every 12,000 years).

Sam

[kiwistonewall]

Mt St Helens may be a super volcano....

www.3news.co.nz/NZ-researcher-eyes-possible-super-volcano-beneath-Mt-St-Helens/tabid/422/articleID/108340/cat/76/Default.aspx

[sol]

Jun 16, 2009 11:57:23 GMT kiwistonewall said:

Mt St Helens may be a super volcano....

www.3news.co.nz/NZ-researcher-eyes-possible-super-volcano-beneath-Mt-St-Helens/tabid/422/articleID/108340/cat/76/Default.aspx

I live 35 air miles from it, so if it goes up as a "super-sized" eruption I won't feel a thing. If I'm lucky I'll be able to blurt out "Oh, Shh...______." ;D

In a sense though, if it was that dangerous it had its chance 29 years ago but didn't take it. The magma chamber didn't get bigger since then and would have had an outlet event in 1980 to vent from. The pattern of past eruptions averages about every 500 years so perhaps it won't pop again soon. Oh, wait. There are those two other volcanoes to worry about now, one being majestic Rainier near Seattle. It and Mt. Adams haven't gone pop in a long time...

It is a bit disconcerting to know that there is a common magma chamber under my feet that links to three area volcanoes. I have to look at the good side of this, as I have always wanted to be an astronaut you know...

Here is a link to the live webcam and an archive of video clips-

www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

[woodstove]

Tourists Banned from Anak Krakatau Volcano
Monday, 22 June, 2009 | 00:00 WIB

TEMPO Interactive, Serang: Tourists and fishermen are prohibited from venturing anywhere inside a 2 km radius of Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait. "It is strictly prohibited to enter the 2 km radius from that volcano" (Anak Krakatau), said Head of Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Surono, last Friday.

The reason for this is the increasing activity of Anak Krakatau, though it remains on ìalertî status. In the level III status, said Surono, molten rocks may be projected from the crater, reaching as far out as 1,5 kilometers. Even so, he ensures that the volcano's activities would not harm tourists and fishermen along the Anyer and Lampung coast. ìBecause there is a 42 kilometers stretch of distance between Anyer coast and Anak Krakatau volcano. So there's no need to panicî, said Surono.

According to the Head of Anak Krakatau Surveillance Post Anton Tripambudi, 157 quakes, 377 tremor, 271 blow-outs, and 452 eruptions happened yesterday. "It's been increasing since the last four days, usually we only have about 800 quakes", said Anton. He added that there were even loud explosions during the last four days, the sounds of which were heard by the surveillance post in Pasauran Village.

The explosions were felt as the windows of hotels along the coastline trembled. "But it's still normal", he said. The billowing cloud of white and grey smoke gushing out from Anak Krakatau reached as high as 600 meters above.

Anak Krakatau is part of the original Krakatau volcano, whose massive eruption in August 1883 projected clouds that cast darkness over half the globe, raised tsunamis and eradicated 36,000 lives. In 1928, Anak Krakatau emerged right beside the original Krakatau.

www.tempointeractive.com/hg/nusa/jawamadura/2009/06/22/brk,20090622-183252,uk.html

[rickj]

see here for my ideas on this
blog.chess.com/Rickj/volcanoesearthquakesmagnetic-fields-and-climatric-impacts



www.unisci.com/stories/20022/0613022.htm was posted elswhere on this board