|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:16:28 GMT
FindingsTotal Solar Irradiance (TSI) is not Total as defined in ANSI/ISO. See Definition in Introduction (Reply # 25).
- The observed range (“Coverage”) is 0.05 to 100,000 nanometers within an Electromagnetic Spectrum of 0.000001 to 100,000,000,000 nanometers. This implies that these instruments do not yet measure Gamma Rays, Hard X-Rays, Far Infrared, Microwave and Radio.
- Emphasis is currently on Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI), the current, instrument-based satellite observations. These began in 2001 with TIMED and continue with SORCE. (Kopp, 2007 p 6)
- The range of the Solar Spectrum continues to be compared to a black body radiation curve, plus the EUV spectrum to 10 nm (Lean, et al). I suspect (but cannot demonstrate) that this is an early artifact of trying to extend surface observations and proxies with satellite data .
- Detection of long-term trends remains uncertain (Lean, Harder, Kopp)
- Climate data requirements for SSI require instruments that:
- Have absolute accuracy of 0.01%, or
- Stability of 0.001% per year and continuity (Kopp, p29)
- To identify a Maunder Minimum OR a long-term trend of 0.1% per 100 years requires:
- In TSI, detection would be marginal; accuracy would take 35 years for 1-sigma OR
- Stability of 0.001% per year for more than 1 solar cycle.
- In SSI, improvements in stability would be needed to achieve continuity.
- Absolute accuracy improvement to 0.1% is probably possible, but nevertheless would take 100 years to detect a long term trend.
- It would seem that an assertion that TSI/SSI has no long-term trend or cycles would require the same instrumentation as that needed to detect a trend.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:20:20 GMT
ConclusionsThe IPCC assertion that TSI (and Solar Activity) is unchanging and is therefore not a significant Climate Forcing is unwarranted. "Total" Solar Irradiance is a misnomer, but it sounds good. Once, it really was all that could be measured.- TSI / SSI instruments do not observe the “Total” Electromagnetic Radiation, per ANSI/ISO definition. It does not include Hard X-Rays, Gamma rays, half of Far UV, Microwave and Radio.
- There is a possibility that "Solar Spectrum" has been redefined to mean the limited set of wavelengths covered by "Spectral Irradiance" (image at Lean, Dr. Judith). This could be somewhat slippery if the public impression remained that it covered "all energy at all wavelengths"
- Current instrumentation needs improvement in accuracy, stability and continuity to detect multi-cycle trends. It is adequate to detect change within solar rotations and a single cycle.
- TSI records appear to have built upon early instrument records and historical proxies. Early TSI historical records were back-cast using proxies that are not precise in terms of timing or amplitude.
- TSI / SSI, taken as the major solar forcing, does not consider the effects of other solar influences.
The IPCC lists its Level Of Confidence in CO 2 Forcing as “High”. I would prefer the word “Dubious”, but that is not an option. This issue is not with the scientists. I read them as cautious in assertions, willing to give confidence bounds, and courteous in taking issue with each other. Theirs are difficult moccasins to walk in, particularly when funded by government.
The real issue is with those politicians who have misappropriated the scientist’s results.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:25:32 GMT
SORCE“SORCE Brochure 10 25 FINAL.” Scientific. SORCE, October 25, 2002. lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/docs/reference/SORCE_Brochure_10_25_FINAL.pdf. TSI defined (pg 26): "Solar energy per unit time over a unit area perpendicular to the Sun’s rays at the top of Earth’s atmosphere." Addresses TIM, SIM, SOLSTICE and XPS instruments aboard SORCE. Lists spectral ranges of SIM, SOLSTICE and XPS on page 15 (physical 17). Spectral range of TIM may be deduced from graph on page 8 (e.g., 10nm to > 100,000 nm. Raises question of how much energy is represented by area under the graph, and how this compares to data supporting small effect of TSI variance. Statement that other wavelengths are absorbed by atmosphere; what is the effect of absorption on global temperature? NOTES and QUOTES:1) A list of spectral ranges of SIM, SOLSTICE and XPS on page 15 (physical 17) raises a question (in my mind) of how much energy is represented by area under the graph, and how this compares to data supporting a claim of the small effect of TSI variance. A statement that other wavelengths are absorbed by atmosphere appears to beg the question; if it is absorbed, does it not add to the total energy impinging the earth? 2) Observations of solar irradiance from space began in the 1960s and reached some level of maturity and reliability in the late 1970s, providing the first view of the full solar spectrum. The more energetic ultraviolet part of the spectrum was a discovery that provided new insight into the complexities of solar physics and improved our understanding of the temperature and structure of the Earth’s upper atmosphere. By the mid-1970s observations were indicating that the ultraviolet varied by large amounts - perhaps factors of 2 near 120 nm and factors approaching an order of magnitude for much of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) at wavelengths below 30 nm. 3) Page 3: CO2 effect removed before TSI evaluated (My note: this appears to be a circular statement).: "After accounting for the increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases, the Earth’s surface temperature corresponds with the increase in solar radiation, except during major volcanic eruptions (arrows)." 4) Instruments: - Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Spectral range of TIM may be deduced from graph on page 7 (physical 8) as 10nm to > 100,000nm."
- Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM): 200nm - 2000nm
- Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE): 115nm - 190nm (far) and 190nm - 320nm (mid) UV
- XUV Photometer System (XPS): 1 to 34 nm (soft X-ray, XUV) and the bright hydrogen emission at 121.6 nm
5) XUV: The solar XUV radiation is emitted from the hot, highly-variable corona on the Sun, and these high-energy photons are a primary energy source for heating and ionizing Earth’s upper atmosphere. The XPS is most sensitive to solar flare events when the solar XUV radiation can change by a factor of 2 to 10.
“Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) Data (SORCE).” Scientific. SORCE, January 26, 2009. lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/ssi_data.htm.
“The Sun and Global Warming: Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Fact Sheet : Feature Articles.” NASA: Earth Observatory. earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/SORCE/sorce_04.php. “The impacts of undulating UV solar radiation may be substantial. Since UV radiation creates ozone in the stratosphere, the oscillation in UV levels can affect the size of the ozone hole. Absorption of UV radiation by the ozone also heats up the stratosphere. Many scientists suspect that changes in stratospheric temperatures may alter weather patterns in the troposphere. ...”
“SORCE's Past, Present, and Future Role in Earth Science Research.” In Science Meeting (February) 2008, 2008. lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2008ScienceMeeting/. Key questions to be addressed include: - What is the present state of knowledge of the total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the ultraviolet, visible, and near infrared spectral ranges?
- How have the key radiative, photochemical and dynamical processes affecting Earth's atmosphere and ozone, changed over the past few decades, in comparison with other influences?
- How much of the stratospheric heating by the solar ultraviolet radiation couples to the lower atmosphere and surface?
- How do the water cycle and cloud coverage respond to solar forcing, and how do these processes affect the long-term climate?
- How can drivers in the Sun causing solar cycle variations be better quantified to estimate past and future solar irradiance changes, such is in times like the Maunder Minimum?
SORCE - Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Data - Data Set Evolution lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/tsi_data.htm#evolution“The ERBS, ACRIM-III, and VIRGO continue to make observations. Willson [1997] combined the ACRIM-I and ACRIM-II data sets using their overlap with the ERB data, and his analysis suggests a net increase of solar radiation between solar minima in 1986 and 1996. (Note: only two solar minima have actually been observed thus far). The estimated increase of 0.04% would induce appreciable climate change if it persists for a sufficient number of solar cycles and if the climate system feedbacks reached their full equilibrium response to the forcing.”
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:31:08 GMT
ACRIMTotal Solar Irradiance (TSI) Monitoring and Requirements for Sustaining the TSI Database Database (Last updated November 2008) www.acrim.com/TSI%20Monitoring.htm"* TSI time series:"Continuous time series of total solar irradiance (TSI) observations have been constructed from the set of redundant, overlapping total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements made by satellite experiments during the past 29 Years. One, the ACRIM composite [Willson & Mordvinov, 2003 (Fig. 1)], displays a significant upward trend in TSI of 0.04 percent per decade during solar cycles 21-23. Another, the PMOD composite [Frohlich & Lean, 1998 (Fig. 2)], displays no significant trend over this period using different combinations of TSI data sets, computational philosophy and assumptions. Both time series demonstrate no significant trend over the two decade period separating the first and third solar activity minima. "* Quality of TSI observations" The potential significance of ACRIM's upward trend during solar cycles 21-23 as a climate forcing makes it important to explore the ACRIM-PMOD trend difference to determine which of the two composites best represents the TSI measurement database. Two types of experiment have provided TSI data: self-calibrating, precision TSI monitors and Earth radiation budget (ERB) experiments. "The ERB experiments were designed to provide ‘boundary value’ results for earth radiation budget modeling and the requirements for accuracy and precision are lower than those for TSI monitoring. The ERB experiments were not solar pointed and able to observe only ~ 5 minutes each orbit as the sun moved through their field of view (another source of uncertainty). These factors, coupled with their inability to calibrate sensor degradation significantly increase the uncertainty of the ERB results. Both the Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE met their observational requirements but but their results are not competitive in traceability with those of TSI monitoring experiments. An additional degrading factor for the ERB data was the slow observational cadence: Nimbus7/ERB observed for ~ 5 minutes each orbit on 3 of every 4 days. The ERBS/ERBE observed far less frequently, for ~ 5 minutes once every 14 days. " "* PMOD time series approach"The PMOD composite approach uses a different subset of the satellite TSI database, the ERBS/ERBE ACRIM gap ratio and modifies published Nimbus7/ERB and ACRIM1 results, to conform them to the predictions of TSI proxy models [Frohlich & Lean, 1998]. The sparse ERBS/ERBE data required the PMOD model to use about 90% interpolated data to compute their ACRIM gap ratio. " TSI proxy models are not competitive in precision or accuracy with even the lowest quality satellite TSI observations. Use of such models in constructing the PMOD composite convolutes their relatively high uncertainties with the satellite TSI observational data. The resulting TSI composite is more likely to represent the modeler's preconception of what the TSI should look like than the reality conveyed by the TSI observational results published by the experiment science teams. "
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:33:45 GMT
GOESGOES-O: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites.” www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GOES-O/spacecraft/index.html. GOES-O Solar X-Ray ImagerThe Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) is essentially a soft X-ray telescope that is used to monitor solar conditions and activity. Every minute the SXI captures an image of the sun's atmosphere in X-rays, providing space weather forecasters with the necessary information in order to determine when to issue forecasts and alerts of conditions that may harm space and ground systems. GOES-O Space Environment MonitorThe Space Environment Monitor ( SEM) consists of three instrument groups: 1) an energetic particle sensor (EPS) package, 2) two magnetometer sensors, and 3) a solar x-ray sensor (XRS). Operating at all times, the SEM provides real-time data to the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado. The SWPC, as the nation’s "space weather" center, receives, monitors, and interprets a wide variety of solar terrestrial data and issues reports, alerts, warnings, and forecasts for special events such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms. This information is important for military and civilian radio communication, satellite communication and navigation systems, electric power networks, geophysical exploration, Shuttle and Space Station astronauts, high-altitude aviators, commercial airlines especially those using north polar routes, and scientific researchers. The XRS is an x-ray telescope that observes and measures solar x-ray emissions in two ranges—one from 0.05 to 0.3 nanometers (nm) and the second from 0.1 to 0.8 nm. In real-time, it measures the intensity and duration of solar flares in order to provide alerts and warnings of potential geophysical responses, such as changes in ionospheric conditions that can disrupt radio communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The five-channel EUV telescope is new on the GOES-NO/P/Q satellites. It measures solar extreme ultraviolet energy in five wavelength bands from 10 nm to 126 nm. The EUV sensor provides a direct measure of the solar energy that heats the upper atmosphere and creates the ionosphere. For GOES-O only, the EUV has the 60 nm and 80 nm wavelength bands deleted and the 10 nm and 30 nm wavelength bands are redundant.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:36:36 GMT
GonzalezIndication the TSI is much more variable than previously thought.Gonzalez, Guillermo. “Examining SORCE data shows the Sun continues its slide toward somnolence.” Blog. Watts Up With That?, April 25, 2009. wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/25/examining-sorce-data-shows-the-sun-continues-its-slide-toward-somnolence/#comment-124037. SORCE / TIM TSI variability for SS24 is greater than that for SS23 as measured by ACRIM2 by an order of magnitude. "These data are plotted on the same scale as the SORCE data. The smoothed data show a minimum TSI variance near the beginning of 1996, some months before sunspot minimum (October 1996). Notice that the minimum value for the variance during the 1996 minimum was about an order of magnitude larger than the present TSI variance."
Note: However, I did not find reconciliation of the ACRIM and SORCE/TIM instruments.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:41:09 GMT
KoppKopp, Greg. “The History and Future of TSI and SSI Measurements.” Scientific. SORCE, December 13, 2007. lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2008ScienceMeeting/doc/Session1/S1_03_Kopp.pdf.
Pg 01: SORCE/TIM graph indicates a decline in Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) of 0.34% for the solar minimum of 29-Oct-2003.
Pg 06: SSI defined as "Spectral Solar Irradiance" "SSI Climate Data Record over majority of solar spectrum began with TIMED (2001) and SORCE (2003)."
Pgs 06, 07 and 08: Graph and lists of coverage: Measurement Missions by satellite and instrument graphed as 0 to ~2400 nanometers. Dates graphed are ~ 1980 through 2008. Dates extended through 2015 for planned missions (dates approximate from graph and list). Missions listed are: - ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY (2002-2008)
- ERS2/GOME & GOME2 (1995-2010)
- GOES/SXI (future)
- GOES/XRS (1976)
- POES/SBUV2 (1985-2015 (dotted line))
- SME/SUM (1981-1989)
- SNOE/SXP (1998-2003)
- SOHO VIRGO/SPM (1996-2011)
- SOHO/SEM (=>1995-2006?)
- SORCE/SIM (2003-2013)
- SORCE/SOLSTICE (2003-?2013)
- SORCE/XPS (2005-2013)
- TIMED/EGS (=> 2001)
- TIMED/XPS (=> 2001)
- UARS/SOLSTICE (1991-2001)
- UARS/SUSIM (1991-2005)
Also some with future dates that are difficult to read: ?/EVE, GOES/N-R
Pg 29: Distinguishes between TSI (as an historical reconstruction) and SSI (as measurements by instruments). - Can currently easily detect changes over solar rotation and solar cycle
- TSI provides long-term record for current solar forcing sensitivities
- New SSI measurements adding knowledge of solar activity causing irradiance changes and effects on Earth’s atmosphere
- Detection of Maunder Minimum or long-term trend of 0.1% / 100 yrs
- TSI: Detection marginal with either absolute accuracy (requires 35 yrs 1-sigma currently) or stability (0.001%/yr over >1 solar cycle)
- TSI record currently relies on instrument stability and continuity
- Imminent improved absolute accuracies will shorten detection time
- SSI: Detection requires improved stability to benefit from continuity
- Absolute accuracy improvements to 0.1% likely, facilitating long-term trend detection over 100 yrs
- This is not too different from how the TSI data record began..."
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:43:05 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:55:04 GMT
Lean, Judith, Jerald Harder, and Greg Kopp. �Comparison of Solar Irradiance Variability Models with SORCE Observations.� Powerpoint (PDF) presented at the 2008 SORCE Science Meeting, Santa Fe, New Mexico, February 5, 2008. lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2008ScienceMeeting/. Variability Models with SORCE Observations: SUMMARY (Pg 19) - SORCE solar irradiance data are helping answer:
- how and why solar irradiance varies - total and spectra?
- what are the mechanisms and wavelength dependence of irradiance variability?
- are long-term changes occurring in addition to the 11-year cycle?
- how and why does climate respond to wavelength-dependent irradiance variations?
- Short-term solar Irradiance changes arise primarily from wavelength-dependent sunspot and facular sources
- increased uncertainties at interfaces of SORCE optical trains
- extant sunspot (Allen) and facular (Unruh) contrasts need some adjustments to better account for SORCE/SIM spectral variations
- Longer-term solar Irradiance changes are uncertain
- ongoing, continuous irradiance record is crucial for better understanding and improved historical reconstructions
- Solar-driven climate change occurs simultaneously with other natural and anthropogenic influences
- volcanic influences, internal modes (ENSO, QBO), greenhouse gases, aerosols�.
- surface and atmospheric temperatures respond to solar cycle with complex spatial patterns
- interactive ozone is crucial for modeling responses to solar forcing throughout the atmosphere
Pg 14: Agreement and differences. "SORCE absolute spectral irradiance agrees with SOLSPEC and UARS (model) to within ~5%" "Real differences occur in regions dominated by UV spectral lines, and in near IR continuum" Lean, Dr. Judith. �Solar Spectrum, Variability, and Atmospheric Absorption.� Scientific. NASA - Science@NASA. science.nasa.gov/headlines/images/sunbathing/sunspectrum.htm.
| �This image, courtesy of Dr. Judith Lean at the US Naval Research Laboratory, shows the spectrum of solar radiation from 10 to 100,000 nm (dark blue), its variability between Solar Maximum and Solar Minimum (green) and the relative transparency of Earth's atmosphere at sea level (light blue). At wavelengths shorter than about 300 nm, there is a relatively large variation in the Sun's extreme UV and x-ray output (greater than 1%), but the Earth's atmosphere is nearly opaque at those wavelengths. For Earth-dwelling beach-goers there is no significant difference between Solar Max and solar minimum.� |
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:57:24 GMT
Scafetta, et alScafetta, N., and R. C. Willson (2009), ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05701, doi:10.1029/2008GL036307. www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL036307.shtmlAbstract: The ACRIM-gap (1989.5–1991.75) continuity dilemma for satellite TSI observations is resolved by bridging the satellite TSI monitoring gap between ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 results with TSI derived from Krivova et al.'s (2007) proxy model based on variations of the surface distribution of solar magnetic flux. ‘Mixed’ versions of ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are constructed with their composites' original values except for the ACRIM gap, where Krivova modeled TSI is used to connect ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 results. Both ‘mixed’ composites demonstrate a significant TSI increase of 0.033 %/decade between the solar activity minima of 1986 and 1996, comparable to the 0.037 % found in the ACRIM composite. The finding supports the contention of Willson (1997) that the ERBS/ERBE results are flawed by uncorrected degradation during the ACRIM gap and refutes the Nimbus7/ERB ACRIM gap adjustment Fröhlich and Lean (1998) employed in constructing the PMOD. (Notes: PMOD is a model, and this paper is Pay-To-Play. However, Pielke obtained a copy and quoted an important finding.)Pielke Sr., Roger. “A New Paper On Solar Climate Forcing “ACRIM-Gap And TSI Trend Issue Resolved Using A Surface Magnetic Flux TSI Proxy Model" By Scafetta Et Al 2009.” Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News. climatesci.org/2009/03/11/a-new-paper-on-solar-climate-forcing-acrim-gap-and-tsi-trend-issue-resolved-using-a-surface-magnetic-flux-tsi-proxy-model-by-scafetta-et-al-2009/. As reported by Pielke, a key statement (in the original Scafetta Et Al paper) conclusion reads: “This finding has evident repercussions for climate change and solar physics. Increasing TSI between 1980 and 2000 could have contributed significantly to global warming during the last three decades [Scafetta and West, 2007, 2008]. Current climate models [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007] have assumed that the TSI did not vary significantly during the last 30 years and have therefore underestimated the solar contribution and overestimated the anthropogenic contribution to global warming.”
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:59:17 GMT
“ Space Environment Technologies - Solar Spectrum.” Scientific. Space Environment Technologies, February 8, 2002. www.spacewx.com/solar_spectrum.html. Thuillier, G. , C. Frohlich, and G. Schmidtke. “Spectral and Total Solar Irradiance Measurements on Board the International Space Station.” In Proceedings of 2nd European Symposium, 433:605. ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands: European Space Agency (ESA), 1999. adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999ESASP.433..605T.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 20:01:59 GMT
Instrument Data TablesTable 1 of 3
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 20:04:33 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 20:06:48 GMT
|
|
|
Post by kenfeldman on May 7, 2009 0:11:19 GMT
Pooh, The sun's energy is mostly in the UV through high infrared. The amount in X-rays is minimal, as shown in the measurements linked to on the home page of this website and shown here: The largest X-ray flares measure about 0.001 watts per meter squared, compared with TSI amount of around 1365 watts per meter squared. The same applies to the longer wavelenth energy as well.
|
|