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Post by jimcripwell on Feb 22, 2009 18:59:42 GMT
I must admit I know very little about Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). So I am relying on my knowledge of basic physics to introduce this thread. I presume that when SSW occurs, heat is lost from the earth by radiation from the warm stratosphere. That, presumably, means it is a negative radiative forcing. However, unlike othe other forcings, it is temporary in nature. Presumably, the total heat lost could be calculated, and some sort of average arrived at. Does anyone have any idea what the radiative forcing of SSW is, assuming this question has any meaning at all? Should it be included in the IPCC calculations? It is, after all, a known effect, even if we dont know what causes it. In other words, ought the radiative forcing of SSW to be included in Fig. SPM 2 of AR4, to WG1? Maybe this is all nonsense anyway.
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Post by twawki on Feb 22, 2009 23:26:15 GMT
Hey Jim Ive been thinking the same thing and whether the SSW is when warm air from the equator hits the poles and then disperses into space producing a net cooling effect. Like to learn more myself and have noticed we have had some frequency of them in recent history.
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Post by twawki on Feb 22, 2009 23:27:30 GMT
And yes it would be good to be able to calculate the net heat loss from the earth because if this is greater than the net heat gain then were in trouble
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Post by magellan on Feb 23, 2009 2:37:58 GMT
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Post by twawki on Feb 23, 2009 5:19:40 GMT
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Post by glc on Feb 23, 2009 12:37:51 GMT
Piers Corbyn, despite his detractors, claims to have a good understanding of the effects of SSW and uses them to predict weather. The funny part is he gets lambasted in the various AGW nutbag blogs, but continues to embarrass Met O. I'd be a bit wary of Piers Corbyn's predictions. I've followed them, on and off, for a while and his success rate is no better than ~50% in my view. Anyway, on a separate point, which may or may not be related to SSW, some quite strong cool anomalies appear to have developed in the NH (at the surface) in the last week or two . See here www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07a.rnl.htmlNow you need to be a bit careful here because the relative areas can be misleading. Note that, in reality, the area between 30N and 30S covers 50% of the earth's surface but it doesn't look it on the anomaly map. Even so, it does seem cooler than I remember it being for some time. It's probably just a response to the developing La Nina conditions - or it could just be a temporary blip. Worth keeping an eye on, though.
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Post by woodstove on Feb 23, 2009 15:38:19 GMT
Piers Corbyn, despite his detractors, claims to have a good understanding of the effects of SSW and uses them to predict weather. The funny part is he gets lambasted in the various AGW nutbag blogs, but continues to embarrass Met O. I'd be a bit wary of Piers Corbyn's predictions. I've followed them, on and off, for a while and his success rate is no better than ~50% in my view. Anyway, on a separate point, which may or may not be related to SSW, some quite strong cool anomalies appear to have developed in the NH (at the surface) in the last week or two . See here www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07a.rnl.htmlNow you need to be a bit careful here because the relative areas can be misleading. Note that, in reality, the area between 30N and 30S covers 50% of the earth's surface but it doesn't look it on the anomaly map. Even so, it does seem cooler than I remember it being for some time. It's probably just a response to the developing La Nina conditions - or it could just be a temporary blip. Worth keeping an eye on, though. Please give citations and dates of Corbyn's failed predictions.
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Post by pidgey on Feb 23, 2009 16:16:59 GMT
The SSW sorta' shows up here: ...in the ongoing positive loss of NH OLR. You know... the stuff that CO2 is trying to prevent from escaping?
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Post by glc on Feb 23, 2009 22:44:38 GMT
Please give citations and dates of Corbyn's failed predictions
I've not actually recorded them. If you can find an archive of his predictions I'll provide evidence of the ones he's got wrong. He definitley had one or two "post mortems" last year when his predictions had gone badly wrong.
James Annan followed him for a while and came to pretty much the same conclusion as me. Now, I know what you're probably thinking, but I'm no fan of James Annan and I'd have happily jumped on him if he'd written anything I didn't agree with. But Annan's assessments of Corbyn were generally fair and he tended to give him the benefit of the doubt on things. For example, if Corbyn's prediction was for heavy rain early in June but the heavy rain didn't actually arrive until late June then, providing the temp prediction and suchlike was broadly correct Corbyn would score a success.
Actually, Corbyn's prediction for a "cold or very cold" February in the UK is now looking interesting. A week or so back this looked to be an absolute certainty, but the recent balmy, spring-like weather has seen the Feb 2009 mean temperature rapidly climbing towards the long term average.
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Post by woodstove on Feb 23, 2009 22:49:50 GMT
Please give citations and dates of Corbyn's failed predictionsI've not actually recorded them. If you can find an archive of his predictions I'll provide evidence of the ones he's got wrong. He definitley had one or two "post mortems" last year when his predictions had gone badly wrong. James Annan followed him for a while and came to pretty much the same conclusion as me. Now, I know what you're probably thinking, but I'm no fan of James Annan and I'd have happily jumped on him if he'd written anything I didn't agree with. But Annan's assessments of Corbyn were generally fair and he tended to give him the benefit of the doubt on things. For example, if Corbyn's prediction was for heavy rain early in June but the heavy rain didn't actually arrive until late June then, providing the temp prediction and suchlike was broadly correct Corbyn would score a success. Actually, Corbyn's prediction for a "cold or very cold" February in the UK is now looking interesting. A week or so back this looked to be an absolute certainty, but the recent balmy, spring-like weather has seen the Feb 2009 mean temperature rapidly climbing towards the long term average. So you get to post a broad criticism, but you're unwilling to back it up? Until you do so, we'll put this one in the ad-hominem attack file. As long as I have been looking at it, Corbyn's batting average is orders of magnitude more accurate than that of the Met Office. If I were a farmer, or someone else whose life or livelihood depended on reasonable long-range meteorological forecasts, I would sooner consult Mr. Corbyn than his state-run competitors.
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Post by walterdnes on Feb 24, 2009 8:28:28 GMT
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Post by glc on Feb 27, 2009 0:17:02 GMT
Please give citations and dates of Corbyn's failed predictions.
As I responded at the time, I haven't kept a record, but we can start one now:-
Feb 2009: Corbyn predicts "cold or very cold". Feb 2009 will end up around average possibly slightly above.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 27, 2009 0:43:29 GMT
I am not sure that an SSW thread is the best place for 'failed forecasts'
Perhaps we should start a failed forecasts thread - we could start with the total failure of IPCC AR4 to forecast the current temperatures.
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Post by magellan on Feb 27, 2009 2:01:50 GMT
Please give citations and dates of Corbyn's failed predictions. As I responded at the time, I haven't kept a record, but we can start one now:- Feb 2009: Corbyn predicts "cold or very cold". Feb 2009 will end up around average possibly slightly above. Just so the record is straight. Precisely, he stated "cold or very cold" for Ireland and Britain for February. weatheraction.com/Globally, he stated: weatheraction.com/id10.htmlMaybe James Annan should have bet, and of course you can also point to his critique of Met O's flops. Corbyn does make a living selling his detailed forecasts. I purchased one a year or two ago
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Post by magellan on Feb 27, 2009 3:16:11 GMT
Now note the 600mb level: tinyurl.com/aas2nj"what goes up, must come down" Does anyone care to venture what is happening?
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