Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Feb 27, 2009 7:33:30 GMT
Post by walterdnes on Feb 27, 2009 7:33:30 GMT
Hmmm, the URLs in my previous post seem to be update Thursday mornings too. I wonder if they have the same schedule as the SST plots at www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html i.e. Monday and Thursday mornings a bit after 9:00 AM EST (1400Z). The update is to Julian day-of-year (Feb 25). The noticable changes are...
- the 1mb level is starting to turn back up after overshooting record-low temps
- the 2 mb level is flattening out after overshooting record-low temps
- the 10 mb level is still falling rapidly towards the record-low line
- 30, 50, and 70 mb continue their liesurely descent
The ChLT (Lower Troposphere) is the only one still above last year. It hasn't been below the previous year since Dec 10 and 11, when the 2008 temps were 0.004 and 0.002 C below 2007. Before that, we have to go back to November 20th.
David Archibald's forecast for the May UAH anomaly doesn't look as off-the-wall as it did a few weeks ago. See icecap.us/images/uploads/oftheMay2009UAHMSUGlobalTemperatureResult12thJanuary2009.pdf also available as a blog posting at www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=197 Here's the part where he really sticks his neck out...
Note how the SOI prior to end 2006 is mainly mildly negative (El Nino) but is noisy with sudden excursions into positive mode which presage cooling, then from mid 2007 the positive (La Nina) phase dominates causing tropical cooling and leads to the global cool period in early-mid 2008. The combination of the annual pattern of temperature change and the current La Nina enables a short term forecast of the UAH MSU result to be made.
The combination of a 0.3° response to the current La Nina and the usual 0.3° decline from January to May will result in a 0.6° decline to May 2009 to a result of -0.4° (0.4° below the long term average).
12th January, 2009